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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Way too much energy digging out west. End up with the same results. 
 

Tuesday into Wednesday might have a better shot will transient 50/50 and muted se ridge. 

Incredibly persistent pattern. No wonder the west has been so cold & snowy 

A blessing for those facing drought out there

Things won't change here until the seasons change. Not expecting any hope til March

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3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I wouldn't sleep on that D6 shortwave, looks pretty potent. At least something to monitor, if it trends south a bit. It depends on the model, but some have it around day 5.5, and some don't have jack. 

Yeah there is a little front-runner wave there...GFS on a few runs had advisory type snows with it...Euro last night actually had like 1-3" south of the pike. But some models don't produce much of anything.

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEM is fairly cold and suppressed. Op runs gonna op run. 

FWIW, there's a difference between OP GFS and both Ukie/GGEM in handling the TPV extension over Hudson Bay. Ukie/GGEM are similar whiel GFS was quite a bit weaker this run with the TPV extension pressing down.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW, there's a difference between OP GFS and both Ukie/GGEM in handling the TPV extension over Hudson Bay. Ukie/GGEM are similar whiel GFS was quite a bit weaker this run with the TPV extension pressing down.

Wow. Huge difference lol. I just checked the Ukie. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow. Huge difference lol. I just checked the Ukie. 

I know it’s an OP run a week out, but which seems more logical? Or are we still too far out to even know this? My gut tells me we’re still to far out to know…but Ive been told I’m not a MET, so I realize I have no skill on forecasting and things of the like. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I know it’s an OP run a week out, but which seems more logical? Or are we still too far out to even know this? My gut tells me we’re still to far out to know…but Ive been told I’m not a MET, so I realize I have no skill on forecasting and things of the like. 

Given the PNA, I'm not buying the suppressed look. I'd side towards the GFS...but based on the ensembles...not quite as cutter-ish maybe?

I could see a messy event though. Would sort of fit the look.

 

Edit: Will said something similar too.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given the PNA, I'm not buying the suppressed look. I'd side towards the GFS...but based on the ensembles...not quite as cutter-ish maybe?

I could see a messy event though. Would sort of fit the look.

 

Edit: Will said something similar too.

For us coastal folk I would bet on it. 

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