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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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36 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

This season states...If the Icon says we snow and the GFS says no, then the GFS is correct. If the GFS says we snow and the Icon says we don't, then the Icon is correct. If the _____x____ says we snow and the ____y_____ says no, then the _______y_______ is correct.....Same old story this year, until it proves my if/thenish statement wrong.

is this Mad Libs?

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get

Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5"

Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4"

Local TV mets have the average at CEF as 49.5. That seems a little high to me.

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5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you mean just in terms of snowfall? The December pattern was pretty good this year.....we just whiffed. That's what makes it tricky....It wasn't like 12/98, 12/99, 12/01 or 12/11.

Snowfall but also luck.  Once you whiff on a good pattern your odds should go down by a lot.  Which is why it is so hard to reverse a ratter in February or beyond.  Maybe this year but 12z says not so fast…

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6 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

Local TV mets have the average at CEF as 49.5. That seems a little high to me.

BDL seems high or CEF?

What is the source of the CEF data they are using? Unfortunately Westover Field only kept snowfall data for about 20 years between the late 1940s-1960s

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe tack on 2-3" for CEF from BDL average?

Yeah I'd figure they are close with CEF a little more. I was just curious where the CEF 49.5 came from....they don't have snow obs there since the 1960s.....there's a few coops that are kind of close by, but they aren't the same as first order airport obs.

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9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And of course the cold retreats fast and it’s borderline . Thread the needle once again. 

B025EF75-FA61-4D6B-9ADA-D5968E99AA90.png

The people of Hartford, Tolland, Windham, and Litchfield Counties will not tolerate any attempts to steal our digital snow, and are prepared to bear arms to defend it. 

giphy.webp?cid=6c09b95241a42e583773a25f9

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48 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

12z gfs run is great. Breaks the suppression with a massive cutter on Feb 7th. 
 

god I can’t wait for summer 

Yea, I was trying to hold out hope, but joining ya. If we get a late turn around, then great...wouldn't surprise me, but breath isn't held.

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And of course the cold retreats fast and it’s borderline . Thread the needle once again.  Also a 300 mile shift north from 00z so it’s a meaningless run. 

B025EF75-FA61-4D6B-9ADA-D5968E99AA90.png

This map shows the town just to my north getting snow.  I will hang out in a park in that town for the day, while relaxing in a lawn chair, wearing a banana hammock, Tommy Bahama Hawaiian shirt, and Olukai beach sandals... eating corn dogs and drinking Busch light.

I refuse to be shut out of this opportunity. 

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