February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[wxeyeNH]

28.8F Light sleet

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blocking is already retrograding some at the end of the EPS....still a ways out, but we're starting to see evidence that we might actually get a more sustained -NAO.

I was just thinking that from a cold point of view, I like seeing that part of the vortex split south into Hudson Bay. Anyways yeah, hopefully maybe it leads to a more sustained -NAO.

[CoastalWx]

What a nuke on the 6z GFS. And 00z too for that matter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW the PV now splits at 50mb on the EPS. Seems like a top down type deal is being shown.

Does the 50mb PV realize the PNA is negative? Maybe we can send a screenshot of a Pacific Homvoller diagram from a 38yo virgin in Tennessee?

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a nuke on the 6z GFS. And 00z too for that matter.

What time frame, next Thursday?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just thinking that from a cold point of view, I like seeing that part of the vortex split south into Hudson Bay. Anyways yeah, hopefully maybe it leads to a more sustained -NAO.

Right, I wasn't saying the blocking is due to the 50mb split, but it give it a good chance of sustaining more. I think the initial NAO action is caused by the wave-break around D6....then it gets reinforced a couple times, but in order for it to be sustained into March, that PV split would help.

[NotSureWeather]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a nuke on the 6z GFS. And 00z too for that matter.

3/1-3/3 fish storm?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right, I wasn't saying the blocking is due to the 50mb split, but it give it a good chance of sustaining more. I think the initial NAO action is caused by the wave-break around D6....then it gets reinforced a couple times, but in order for it to be sustained into March, that PV split would help.

Yep, agreed. Or should I say...Agreed!!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

What time frame, next Thursday?

 

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

3/1-3/3 fish storm?

2/27-2/28ish

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep, agreed. Or should I say...Agreed!!

Correct!!!!

[metagraphica]

21 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I am glad that I am going to experience that 68F...Now, I won't have to go chasing heat.  Praying for a bust, and we get to 70F

Wait til you experience a 69, then you'll be chasing it and praying for busts all the time. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

2/27-2/28ish

Funny how ridiculous some of these runs are in the final week of Feb....like 3 different storms. Even though it prob won't verify, it's a good illustration of the way these patterns can be prolific if things break right....we've seen some of these gradient patterns in the past go nuts where you are getting a system every 2-3 days on that fast flow (think Dec 2007, 2008 or Jan/Feb '94 or even Feb/Mar 1967)

[jbenedet]

34 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Misty and cloudy here. 
 

check out 12z hrrr gets to 65-70 before the rain moves in around 2-4pm tomorrow.  It’s really a damn shame the rain has to come and ruin what could have been widespread 70s. 

The sweet spot will be BED LWM to PSM. I think you go +5 on those numbers at these locations and the rain is held off until after sunset.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how ridiculous some of these runs are in the final week of Feb....like 3 different storms. Even though it prob won't verify, it's a good illustration of the way these patterns can be prolific if things break right....we've seen some of these gradient patterns in the past go nuts where you are getting a system every 2-3 days on that fast flow (think Dec 2007, 2008 or Jan/Feb '94 or even Feb/Mar 1967)

I have had two of those in mind...Dec 2007 and warmer version of Jan/Feb '94 that acts as a segue into more blocky regime.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blocking is already retrograding some at the end of the EPS....still a ways out, but we're starting to see evidence that we might actually get a more sustained -NAO.

I've been analyzing it over the last week ...

It is apparently down-welling in the prognostics of the GFS *courtesy CPCs strat/trop monitoring division.

Most crucial factor in assessing it's ability to modulate the mode of the AO, is that downward propagation behavior...

 

 

2006 -0.170 -0.156 -1.604(March)  0.138 

In this case... the modulation times for early March, assuming an initiation/timing last week? I'm not entirely certain when this particular event got going... The recent temperature monitoring suggests its not even behaving so much like an actual "SUDDEN" event. There's a node that is rotating around PV high stratospheric altitude for over 2 weeks... It almost appears like this is attempting to reach a critical mass loading and then just ends up forcing it's way down that way...  

I mean, the science of how these works gets the idealized model, but there's probably flavors and hybrid mechanics in reality and not all these events necessarily have to run along according to that idealize behavior...  

 

 

[jbenedet]

MJO behaving exactly as it should in terms of sensible weather.

Too early to declare pattern is changing, instead what I'm seeing is MJO phase 8 showing up in the global guidance with coast to coast cold in Southern Canada, despite the crappy pacific.

So there is a window again for a snowstorm if it is well timed. Reminds me a lot of the mid-January period in terms of opportunity and type of storm threats. Since the MJO phase 8 is transient, my base case is a return to ++AN after next week; but it's largely wait and see. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right, I wasn't saying the blocking is due to the 50mb split, but it give it a good chance of sustaining more. I think the initial NAO action is caused by the wave-break around D6....then it gets reinforced a couple times, but in order for it to be sustained into March, that PV split would help.

On schedule. Nice to get excited for some tracking and model watching. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

MJO behaving exactly as it should in terms of sensible weather.

Too early to declare pattern is changing, instead what I'm seeing is MJO phase 8 showing up in the global guidance with coast to coast cold in Southern Canada, despite the crappy pacific.

So there is a window again for a snowstorm if it is well timed. Since the MJO phase 8 is transient, my base case is a return to ++AN after next week; but it's largely wait and see. 

What does a Nina phase 5-6 look like in March?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MJO behaving exactly as it should in terms of sensible weather.

Too early to declare pattern is changing, instead what I'm seeing is MJO phase 8 showing up in the global guidance with coast to coast cold in Southern Canada, despite the crappy pacific.

So there is a window again for a snowstorm if it is well timed. Since the MJO phase 8 is transient, my base case is a return to ++AN after next week; but it's largely wait and see. 

I'd be absolutely stunned if we went back well above normal to begin March. But we'll see...I originally thought that way about early January, too. I think there is more evidence to suggest otherwise, this time. We'll see.

[mahk_webstah]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blocking is already retrograding some at the end of the EPS....still a ways out, but we're starting to see evidence that we might actually get a more sustained -NAO.

I think we will, and I have thought so for a good while.  I'm not a Met obviously, but we had a good blocking episode earlier but we got unlucky in how it played out.  Blocking early usually repeats late.  I think we all the way down to DC have some interesting times ahead, and I think I end up with above average snowfall.  30 more inches and I"m above average.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd be absolutely stunned of we went back well above normal to begin March.

I think we can confuse noise for a signal with MJO phase 8 right here.  MJO is loud noise. We need to see through it. That's all I'm saying. I don't think we can right now. We will know a lot more in a week.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd be absolutely stunned of we went back well above normal to begin March.

Well that’s his take…he’s going persistence obviously(shocker), it’s worked up til now…will it keep working for him?  

[mahk_webstah]

27 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Wait til you experience a 69, then you'll be chasing it and praying for busts all the time. 

My goodness...

we all want more 69 on so many levels.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s his take…he’s going persistence obviously(shocker), it’s worked up til now…will it keep working for him?  

You do not excel at reading comprehension. 

Uncertainty and forecasting ain't your jam. It's obvious.

[mahk_webstah]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how ridiculous some of these runs are in the final week of Feb....like 3 different storms. Even though it prob won't verify, it's a good illustration of the way these patterns can be prolific if things break right....we've seen some of these gradient patterns in the past go nuts where you are getting a system every 2-3 days on that fast flow (think Dec 2007, 2008 or Jan/Feb '94 or even Feb/Mar 1967)

If it is showing 3, I'd be on 2, but it might be like that Dec 08 period you mentioned yesterday.  That was 2 waves Dec 19 and 21 with low level light snow never stopping in between.  But there was also 5" up here in Dec 17, so basically 31" in 5 days for me.  Earlier this year was 25 inches in 6 days up here.  These things can happen, but if we have blocking wouldn't that tend to slow it down and cause consolidation of waves instead of multiple waves over a few days?

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't believe the PV slipping off axis and rotating down into the Canadian N is being modulated by the MJO to begin with.

There's little use - imho - in drafting causation from the trop Pac dispersion model.  The advent of the Marine sub-continental wave propagation over the last 10 days is merely a strong presentation of a wave even, one that was in constructive interference during 3-6, wrt to the La Nina couple based state.

If anything  the PV behavior in the models is actually in an anti-corrlated state with phase 3-6 ...

Now that it is rounding the RMM, the models are detecting the destructive interference of said couple base state, and the wave is summarily - just like all predecessors all year... - not likely to penetrate the 7/8 spacial region, where it actually would be a better correlation for the present modeled PV behavior....

This chain of unlikely correlated events, happening anyway..., doesn't altogether argue that the MJO is really got proxy over the hemisphere.

 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You do not excel at reading comprehension. 

Uncertainty and forecasting ain't your jam. It's obvious.

Lol…you’re funny. And You don’t excel in Meteorology, so I guess we’re even. 

[jbenedet]

Snow storm chance is highest next week than it's been since mid January. I'll leave it there.

I don't think it indicates a pattern change; it is more likely a result of a cold/stormy phase of a cycle (MJO) within persistence. But my uncertainty is high, and therefore confidence is low on the matter of pattern change. 

There you go wolfie.

[512high]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…you’re funny. You don’t excel in Meteorology, so I guess we’re even. 

Click on pope's twitter account he shows....doesn't exist. Fraud? Lmao

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…you’re funny. And You don’t excel in Meteorology, so I guess we’re even. 

You don't even know what meteorology is, so you could not criticize with merit. 

And you can't forecast.

Frankly, I don't know what it is you do here other than try and stir the pot, with ZERO credibility or accomplishments behind you.