CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah I didn’t see much change. I guess the qpf queens can quibble but it was a nice look. Op runs are gonna be all over. GEFs looked fine. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Still seems a bit aggressive to go above normal for that period even if its only 33-60% for the northeast. Looking at the ensembles from the GEFS/GEPS/EPS would all indicate at least a neutral chance of temps in that range if not a slight tick blo normal. I see that was issued yesterday. Here is the latest product issued from the CPC which is more inline with what im seeing, also shaves off one warm day on the 21st and adds the 28th. What a difference new data and a day makes.... Not the same ol same ol….where’s qgSmeg and the Pope? I mean how come they aren’t posting these maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Please snow or icestorm . Please 4 1 5 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not the same ol same ol….where’s qgSmeg and the Pope? I mean how come they aren’t posting these maps? Encouraging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Please snow or icestorm . Please +KFS briefly going -KFS at the 18z run? Hiccup? I’ve never thought you guys or anyone were done. It’s still early. It may have been a dumpster fire of a winter, but climo still likes to have a minor say. Record low (or high) snow/precip is tough to come by for a reason. Just like in summer droughts, the odds are it can’t run that futility play forever. It doesn’t mean a memorable stretch at all, but just wintry weather around. It does start to fight the gaining sun angle though, just like HHH in the fall in reverse. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Encouraging I guess that’s a good way to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Please snow or icestorm . Please It’s coming, we winter, at least for a short window of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Not the same ol same ol….where’s qgSmeg and the Pope? I mean how come they aren’t posting these maps? If things looked bad they'd be posting, good sign that they're not. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I didn’t think the 18z was that bad anyway. You all just got more nerve than a bum tooth these days. Was less than perfect… ? fine. Uh this is still just a signal and as far as signals go that’s you’re putting a bunch of baroclinic action right through a signal- that’s all you can expect from now. By the way 18z Nam is also 70 over metro west of Boston on Thursday regardless of whatever the 2 m says those parametrics combined with a post February 10 sun is going to soar. West wind open sky 11 Celsius at 900 mbar with low dewpoints and no snow pack. Pretty sure that would be historic numbers a little bit more meaningfully than 58 we put up last week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Lol 1956 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 GFS has the Wednesday wave quicker… ends up as a nice overrunning event for much of the area 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 CMC is amazing. this is what happens when you have a strong S/W run into confluence. lots of cold air in place and the energy is forced to go S instead of cut such a strong thermal gradient, too. you can get heavy precip based off of that alone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC is amazing. this is what happens when you have a strong S/W run into confluence. lots of cold air in place and the energy is forced to go S instead of cut such a strong thermal gradient, too. you can get heavy precip based off of that alone SWFE of yore! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC is amazing. this is what happens when you have a strong S/W run into confluence. lots of cold air in place and the energy is forced to go S instead of cut such a strong thermal gradient, too. you can get heavy precip based off of that alone 93-94 type pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 GFS has another significant storm. go figure, look at that 50/50! this might be the best OP run we’ve seen all winter just goes to show that a -PNA isn’t as much of a problem late-season when you have Atlantic help 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 93-94 type pattern. Let’s see how this all plays out, with regards to model consistency but I think we might see a great late winter stretch, for our latitude. I’m still expecting to come in under seasonal average but at this point, I’m thinking an additional 15”-20” of snow is not out of the realm of possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I'm just hoping ACK gets its projected 30" over the 384 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 93-94 type pattern. I’ve been waiting 29 years for it… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Let’s see how this all plays out, with regards to model consistency but I think we might see a great late winter stretch, for our latitude. I’m still expecting to come in under seasonal average but at this point, I’m thinking an additional 15”-20” of snow is not out of the realm of possibilities. I honestly still think I could hit the low end of my 60-70" forecast range IMBY. Would need some luck, of course...but possible if things break right. Don't get me wrong, I'm not holding my breath, but... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 sucks we can't make up our snows with a superstorm '93 or april '97. It has to be a garbage-time SWFE/overrunning snoozefest 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Gimme another full 36 hours, I’m beginning to come around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Op runs gonna op runs. But, ensembles still look pretty good. Euro op still shows the chance of some of these needing a little too close for comfort……but you get the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Incredible sunrise this morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 10 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Epicosity left the building at 18z. Oh how we hardly knew thee, 3 good runs in a row up to that point. We have to be less responsive to individual model runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Please snow or icestorm . Please https://youtu.be/G_nOXbNetVQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2023 Author Share Posted February 15, 2023 Wake me up in 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Good overnight runs. But yeah…long ways to go. At least we’re seeing consistency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Good overnight runs. But yeah…long ways to go. At least we’re seeing consistency. 6 days left in the period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Mariano Rivera warming up… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 31 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: We have to be less responsive to individual posters BS. Fixed your post. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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