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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The persistence crew is trying so hard.  I just don’t get it? Nothing says/or nobody is saying any of this is a guarantee.  But when folks can’t discuss the positives of multiple pieces of guidance, across multiple suites over days now, that’s when the agenda driven BS becomes crystal clear. 
 

 qg_Smegma saying nothing is different, when it clearly is. I get the Snakebitten feeling(I’m at 4.3”) so I understand the skepticism, but when you can’t admit this looks different than what we’ve been dealing with, that’s just not true. 

I get it, but realize anyone doing it is mostly just joking around. At least I hope. Kev don't want no wet and mild 

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24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When will Kev flip the switch from Persistence, to All aboard the winter storm threat….I say by Friday.  4,3,2,1….:P

It’s only the Gfs right now. If the EPS and Euro start looking like a big snowstorm and it’s Tuesday of next week.. another 7 days .. I will be looking forward to snow. Right now.. I think this is more of the same as we’ve seen all winter. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s only the Gfs right now. If the EPS and Euro start looking like a big snowstorm and it’s Tuesday of next week.. another 7 days .. I will be looking forward to snow. Right now.. I think this is more of the same as we’ve seen all winter. 

Not exactly 100% accurate…multiple guidance showing potential for next week. But you will be in before next Tuesday if the look continues.  I’m sticking to Friday. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s only the Gfs right now. If the EPS and Euro start looking like a big snowstorm and it’s Tuesday of next week.. another 7 days .. I will be looking forward to snow. Right now.. I think this is more of the same as we’ve seen all winter. 

I'm not even talking about next week... I'm just busting about the constant persistence talk in the face of an obviously different look to the pattern evolution.  Hey, it may lead to nothing at all, but it won't be for the same reasons.  Actually late next week is actually the first tease as I see it.

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3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I'm not even talking about next week... I'm just busting about the constant persistence talk in the face of an obviously different look to the pattern evolution.  Hey, it may lead to nothing at all, but it won't be for the same reasons.  Actually late next week is actually the first tease as I see it.

This. Agree 100 %.  Well said. 

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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I'm not even talking about next week... I'm just busting about the constant persistence talk in the face of an obviously different look to the pattern evolution.  Hey, it may lead to nothing at all, but it won't be for the same reasons.  Actually late next week is actually the first tease as I see it.

I hope you guys are correct with the snowy ideas. I’d love a 3-5 week period of deep Morch snows. For now though.. I am going to stay with the thought process that a rat finds ways to rat . And if the rat dies .. I’ll be pleased as pie. I have to follow that mindset for mental health 

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24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s only the Gfs right now. If the EPS and Euro start looking like a big snowstorm and it’s Tuesday of next week.. another 7 days .. I will be looking forward to snow. Right now.. I think this is more of the same as we’ve seen all winter. 

Is the casino still taking bets for BDL/ORH futility? Bc i would like in,

Asking for a friend

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I hope you guys are correct with the snowy ideas. I’d love a 3-5 week period of deep Morch snows. For now though.. I am going to stay with the thought process that a rat finds ways to rat . And if the rat dies .. I’ll be pleased as pie. I have to follow that mindset for mental health 

Julius still your preference?  

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Still seems a bit aggressive to go above normal for that period even if its only 33-60% for the northeast. Looking at the ensembles from the GEFS/GEPS/EPS would all indicate at least a neutral chance of temps in that range if not a slight tick blo normal. I see that was issued yesterday. 

Here is the latest product issued from the CPC which is more inline with what im seeing, also shaves off one warm day on the 21st and adds the 28th.

What a difference new data and a day makes....

 

814temp.new.gif

814prcp.new.gif

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