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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's going to be very difficult for storms to cut with deep negative anomalies over the 50/50 region. this would favor overrunning events and SWFEs that begin cold

even if they do "cut" you're likely to get snow on the front end anyway

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7758400.thumb.png.81beb73dfac2eef7e64104a144e1c631.png

You need the 50/50 to anchor, otherwise it's very similar to the seasonal tenor. It looks potent, but does it slide east as the wave propagates over the plains and amplifies? 

Find out when this -NAO starts. That is all.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it does look like the pattern will support cold and a nice anticyclone to the north thanks to confluence.

Even if we do "cut" should be a pretty classic SWFE kind of event.

yup, and then once we get into the first week of March, there's a higher risk for retrograding blocking that increases the chance for more traditional coastals. that signal has been growing stronger with time, too... it likely begins to retrograde around the 1st or so. we could have a pretty fun time from like the 22-24th through mid-March as a result

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14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You need the 50/50 to anchor, otherwise it's very similar to the seasonal tenor. It looks potent, but does it slide east as the wave propagates over the plains and amplifies? 

Find out when this -NAO starts. That is all.

I don’t recall seeing that look in December. We had the blocking, but the PV got pushed west and we never had true confluence to our northeast. 

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29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's a favorable look for late winter if true. Lots of cold available.

The RNA/-PNA isn't a detriment like it can be in early-mid winter. At the very least you could get some SWFEs. 

Models are definitely trending towards a -NAO

What's the difference between a RNA and -PNA  Ever since Benchmark started using the term RNA I have been confused. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I know everyone is snake bitten...and trust me I am with you. But for the first time all winter...we've had 3+ days of models showing something later next week. While of course this is still in the extended time frame when things could go wrong...that does mean something IMO. When is the last time we've had consistency....other than mild conditions being modeled?

I was thinking exactly the same thing. We haven't even been able to get much in the way of fantasy land snowstorms out of any models save for maybe one run then it would totally change or disappear. My expectations are low but if it's still there late weekend I'll feel much more enthused.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Who has been forecasting non stop cold and snow?  Even George hasn't.

Yeah the reason why I haven’t been posting nearly as much since mid Jan or so here is I didn’t really see anything I liked on the models for big snow potential in SNE. The late Feb threat looks like it has some potential but I’m skeptical. I don’t think the longwave pattern supports a storm that is all that strong, the pattern looks zonal and progressive. If things break right it’s possible things work out but the way this winter has gone I’m at the point where I need to see it to believe it.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS also continues to trend stronger with the east-based -NAO in clown range. This is a good sign because that is what the weeklies were doing toward the end of February…and if you want a fun period for a few weeks, we want the weeklies to verify more or less. 
 

Note how in response to that, we see an intensifying minimum in heights over the 50/50 region. 
 

 

7F0FC9A7-144F-476A-8B4F-F05D20710248.png

Not shocked.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t recall seeing that look in December. We had the blocking, but the PV got pushed west and we never had true confluence to our northeast. 

I do in January and early Feb. 
 

Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content.

How much snowfall does SNE have?

We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify. 

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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I do in January and early Feb. 
 

Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content.

How much snowfall does SNE have?

We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify. 

We had -NAO look but never had confluence sustain itself like what’s modeled. 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I do in January and early Feb. 
 

Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content.

How much snowfall does SNE have?

We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify. 

Nothing ever looked this good inside of 10 days since December though. We had some runs that showed decent patterns but they usually fell apart before getting inside 10 days. We did have a couple runs show brief threats in early February but they ended up suppressed and we got a historic arctic outbreak instead with no real snow to show for it. 

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The persistence crew is trying so hard.  I just don’t get it? Nothing says/or nobody is saying any of this is a guarantee.  But when folks can’t discuss the positives of multiple pieces of guidance, across multiple suites over days now, that’s when the agenda driven BS becomes crystal clear. 
 

 qg_Smegma saying nothing is different, when it clearly is. I get the Snakebitten feeling(I’m at 4.3”) so I understand the skepticism, but when you can’t admit this looks different than what we’ve been dealing with, that’s just not true. 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The persistence crew is trying so hard.  I just don’t get it? Nothing says/or nobody is saying any of this is a guarantee.  But when folks can’t discuss the positives of multiple pieces of guidance, across multiple suites over days now, that’s when the agenda driven BS becomes crystal clear. 
 

 qg_Smegma saying nothing is different, when it clearly is. I get the Snakebitten feeling(I’m at 4.3”) so I understand the skepticism, but when you can’t admit this looks different than what we’ve been dealing with, that’s just not true. 

Lovin the Yiddish....

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