CT Rain Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 It would be classic 2022-2023 if we managed a giant ice storm and wound up with little snow lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it's going to be very difficult for storms to cut with deep negative anomalies over the 50/50 region. this would favor overrunning events and SWFEs that begin cold even if they do "cut" you're likely to get snow on the front end anyway You need the 50/50 to anchor, otherwise it's very similar to the seasonal tenor. It looks potent, but does it slide east as the wave propagates over the plains and amplifies? Find out when this -NAO starts. That is all. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it does look like the pattern will support cold and a nice anticyclone to the north thanks to confluence. Even if we do "cut" should be a pretty classic SWFE kind of event. yup, and then once we get into the first week of March, there's a higher risk for retrograding blocking that increases the chance for more traditional coastals. that signal has been growing stronger with time, too... it likely begins to retrograde around the 1st or so. we could have a pretty fun time from like the 22-24th through mid-March as a result 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: You need the 50/50 to anchor, otherwise it's very similar to the seasonal tenor. It looks potent, but does it slide east as the wave propagates over the plains and amplifies? Find out when this -NAO starts. That is all. I don’t recall seeing that look in December. We had the blocking, but the PV got pushed west and we never had true confluence to our northeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's a favorable look for late winter if true. Lots of cold available. The RNA/-PNA isn't a detriment like it can be in early-mid winter. At the very least you could get some SWFEs. Models are definitely trending towards a -NAO What's the difference between a RNA and -PNA Ever since Benchmark started using the term RNA I have been confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Well, I married me a wife She's been trouble all my life Run me out in the cold rain and snow Rain and snow Run me out in the cold rain and snow 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 19 minutes ago, wkd said: What's the difference between a RNA and -PNA Ever since Benchmark started using the term RNA I have been confused. Same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 24 minutes ago, wkd said: What's the difference between a RNA and -PNA Ever since Benchmark started using the term RNA I have been confused. It’s typically always called the PNA.. Pacific North American Oscillation. RNA is Ray’s Neurotic Association 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 47 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It would be classic 2022-2023 if we managed a giant ice storm and wound up with little snow lol we laugh but yeah, the thought's crossed the mind - it's not a bad take Ryan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 41 minutes ago, wkd said: What's the difference between a RNA and -PNA Ever since Benchmark started using the term RNA I have been confused. It’s the same thing. R is for reverse I believe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Eric Fisher is interested fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Looks like a good setup for the winter crew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I know everyone is snake bitten...and trust me I am with you. But for the first time all winter...we've had 3+ days of models showing something later next week. While of course this is still in the extended time frame when things could go wrong...that does mean something IMO. When is the last time we've had consistency....other than mild conditions being modeled? I was thinking exactly the same thing. We haven't even been able to get much in the way of fantasy land snowstorms out of any models save for maybe one run then it would totally change or disappear. My expectations are low but if it's still there late weekend I'll feel much more enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 22 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Eric Fisher is interested fwiw... Funny, earlier he was more interested in pussy willows blooming LOL. fwiw is the key here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Who has been forecasting non stop cold and snow? Even George hasn't. Yeah the reason why I haven’t been posting nearly as much since mid Jan or so here is I didn’t really see anything I liked on the models for big snow potential in SNE. The late Feb threat looks like it has some potential but I’m skeptical. I don’t think the longwave pattern supports a storm that is all that strong, the pattern looks zonal and progressive. If things break right it’s possible things work out but the way this winter has gone I’m at the point where I need to see it to believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 22 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Funny, earlier he was more interested in pussy willows blooming LOL. fwiw is the key here True. He is fairly conservative though so to see him mention it is unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: It looks pretty good to me for a D8/9 threat. Not sure what all the hand wringing is about. We had D6 threats earlier this winter season that didn't work out. So when the threat gets to within D5 maybe some of us will take more of an interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS also continues to trend stronger with the east-based -NAO in clown range. This is a good sign because that is what the weeklies were doing toward the end of February…and if you want a fun period for a few weeks, we want the weeklies to verify more or less. Note how in response to that, we see an intensifying minimum in heights over the 50/50 region. Not shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s typically always called the PNA.. Pacific North American Oscillation. RNA is Ray’s Neurotic Association Honestly, I just like it bc its faster to type than -PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Honestly, I just like it bc its fastervtp type than -PNA. Lol that’s acceptable. I only am on the board on my iPhone. Haven’t used a PC on the board since I’d say 2014 or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not shocked. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t recall seeing that look in December. We had the blocking, but the PV got pushed west and we never had true confluence to our northeast. I do in January and early Feb. Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content. How much snowfall does SNE have? We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I do in January and early Feb. Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content. How much snowfall does SNE have? We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify. We had -NAO look but never had confluence sustain itself like what’s modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I do in January and early Feb. Do a search for “confluence” over the past month. 6 pages worth of content. How much snowfall does SNE have? We have seen it show up plenty; problem is it has been retreating as shortwaves amplify. Nothing ever looked this good inside of 10 days since December though. We had some runs that showed decent patterns but they usually fell apart before getting inside 10 days. We did have a couple runs show brief threats in early February but they ended up suppressed and we got a historic arctic outbreak instead with no real snow to show for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 The persistence crew is trying so hard. I just don’t get it? Nothing says/or nobody is saying any of this is a guarantee. But when folks can’t discuss the positives of multiple pieces of guidance, across multiple suites over days now, that’s when the agenda driven BS becomes crystal clear. qg_Smegma saying nothing is different, when it clearly is. I get the Snakebitten feeling(I’m at 4.3”) so I understand the skepticism, but when you can’t admit this looks different than what we’ve been dealing with, that’s just not true. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Wet , mild n wild rest of month . More good news . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wet , mild n wild rest of month . More good news . We will see ensembles don’t necessarily agree on mild temps the last 7 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The persistence crew is trying so hard. I just don’t get it? Nothing says/or nobody is saying any of this is a guarantee. But when folks can’t discuss the positives of multiple pieces of guidance, across multiple suites over days now, that’s when the agenda driven BS becomes crystal clear. qg_Smegma saying nothing is different, when it clearly is. I get the Snakebitten feeling(I’m at 4.3”) so I understand the skepticism, but when you can’t admit this looks different than what we’ve been dealing with, that’s just not true. Lovin the Yiddish.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We will see ensembles don’t necessarily agree on mild temps the last 7 days of the month. In another weeks its going to get cold and snow. Yup. Change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 In the near term … that 18z NAM would tickle 70 on Thursday over downtown crossings and parking lots over eastern mass well west of marine kisses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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