February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is one of the ones in CT with like 5" on the season who has become immune to logic as means of self preservation. 

It’s a moot point at this time range but the entire system would slide south of SNE if euro went out another panel. 

[snowman19]

why look at the tweets from a pioneer of SPV science when you can talk about 16-18 year old weenies with Twitter fingers?

I saw that and following that study, if it’s correct, the tropospheric response -NAM (-AO)/-NAO wouldn’t come until mid-late March. Good luck with that south of New England. Come 3/15, south of New England, it’s over Johnny, minus some freak, anomalous event

[ORH_wxman]

As Tip and I were musing…good luck figuring out the dominant strain in this fast flow…buckshot look on the ensembles. But you do love the look of a scooter high to the north. 

 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You must have missed this one.

I've seen that floating around too. I don't mean that in a bad way.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS also continues to trend stronger with the east-based -NAO in clown range. This is a good sign because that is what the weeklies were doing toward the end of February…and if you want a fun period for a few weeks, we want the weeklies to verify more or less. 
 

Note how in response to that, we see an intensifying minimum in heights over the 50/50 region. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

I know everyone is snake bitten...and trust me I am with you. But for the first time all winter...we've had 3+ days of models showing something later next week. While of course this is still in the extended time frame when things could go wrong...that does mean something IMO. When is the last time we've had consistency....other than mild conditions being modeled?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I saw that and following that study, if it’s correct, the tropospheric response -NAM (-AO)/-NAO wouldn’t come until mid-late March. Good luck with that south of New England. Come 3/15, south of New England, it’s over Johnny, minus some freak, anomalous event

You realize that this is a New England thread, right?

[snowman19]

You realize that this is a New England thread, right?

The snide comment was from someone who lives in New Jersey

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know everyone is snake bitten...and trust me I am with you. But for the first time all winter...we've had 3+ days of models showing something later next week. While of course this is still in the extended time frame when things could go wrong...that does mean something IMO. When is the last time we've had consistency....other than mild conditions being modeled?

There’s also a lot of cross-guidance support and a lot of ensemble support within each model…and we know that matters too for forecast confidence. The only inhibiting factor right now is lead time. Inherently day 9 forecasts are going to be uncertain, but this is much better agreement than we’ve previously had on a day 9 look for something wintry…prob since December. 

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know everyone is snake bitten...and trust me I am with you. But for the first time all winter...we've had 3+ days of models showing something later next week. While of course this is still in the extended time frame when things could go wrong...that does mean something IMO. When is the last time we've had consistency....other than mild conditions being modeled?

100%... We all know what the tenor of the winter and modeling has been up to this point in time... But you have to be ready to drop the persistence argument when it starts becoming obvious that argument wouldn't cut it anymore.  Are we 100% there yet, no... But we are very close.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The snide comment was from someone who lives in New Jersey

it wasn't snide. there isn't exactly a need to follow a study verbatim when we can see the effects of the SSW starting to show up by the end of the month on ensembles. we could easily enter into a -NAO regime by the start of March, not mid-late March

there are also threats beforehand later next week... I feel like you're ignoring those points for whatever reason. persistence is probably going to be the downfall of many forecasts over the coming couple of weeks

[8611Blizz]

Personally I think many here won't believe in a storm until they wake up to the sound of snowblowers.

[snowman19]

it wasn't snide. there isn't exactly a need to follow a study verbatim when we can see the effects of the SSW starting to show up by the end of the month on ensembles. we could easily enter into a -NAO regime by the start of March, not mid-late March
there are also threats beforehand later next week... I feel like you're ignoring those points for whatever reason. persistence is probably going to be the downfall of many forecasts over the coming couple of weeks

Persistence may be a downfall just like people who have been forecasting cold and snow and historic patterns for the I-95 corridor non stop since November have been epically failing. 4 months and counting

[CT Rain]

It looks pretty good to me for a D8/9 threat. Not sure what all the hand wringing is about. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We had a cold , stormy look on modeling for weeks beginning in mid- late Mowvember for December ..Ensembles, weeklies, op runs all were unanimous. And they were all wrong. So there is zero reason to buy in and not assume we will be bent over the rowboat with oars once again. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Persistence may be a downfall just like people who have been forecasting cold and snow and historic patterns for the I-95 corridor non stop since November have been epically failing. 4 months and counting

Who has been forecasting non stop cold and snow?  Even George hasn't.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Persistence may be a downfall just like people who have been forecasting cold and snow and historic patterns for the I-95 corridor non stop since November have been epically failing. 4 months and counting

who has done this?

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had a cold , stormy look on modeling for weeks beginning in mid- late Mowvember for December ..Ensembles, weeklies, op runs all were unanimous. And they were all wrong. So there is zero reason to buy in and not assume we will be bent over the rowboat with oars once again. 

Meh. You'll be onboard by Monday. Will just have to listen to you whine between now and then. 

[snowman19]

who has done this?

I guess you don’t read twitter, and no not just children, so called “pro” mets have been doing this for months

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I guess you don’t read twitter, and no not just children, so called “pro” mets have been doing this for months

Only December

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We had a cold , stormy look on modeling for weeks beginning in mid- late Mowvember for December ..Ensembles, weeklies, op runs all were unanimous. And they were all wrong. So there is zero reason to buy in and not assume we will be bent over the rowboat with oars once again. 

That's not true at all. Not this "close" in and not from multi suites of guidance. 

[CoastalWx]

I mean first chance of anything might be day 7-8. Not exactly clown range.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it wasn't snide. there isn't exactly a need to follow a study verbatim when we can see the effects of the SSW starting to show up by the end of the month on ensembles. we could easily enter into a -NAO regime by the start of March, not mid-late March

there are also threats beforehand later next week... I feel like you're ignoring those points for whatever reason. persistence is probably going to be the downfall of many forecasts over the coming couple of weeks

 A -NAO may even start as early as very late Feb per GEFS trends. 25% of the 0Z GEFS members had it below -0.25 by Feb 27th and the 12Z mean as of Feb 27th is closer to a -NAO than was the 0Z mean.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Meh. You'll be onboard by Monday. Will just have to listen to you whine between now and then. 

He whined about Rihanna for two days.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Meh. You'll be onboard by Monday. Will just have to listen to you whine between now and then. 

I don’t think this is a snowy pattern what so ever  With no blocking .. a digging - PNA and stout SE ridge that models always under model .. my money is on this cutting 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I guess you don’t read twitter, and no not just children, so called “pro” mets have been doing this for months

Personally, Twitter is a distraction on almost all levels.  I stay here to learn and do more intensive research than what can be gleaned in 280 characters.

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS also continues to trend stronger with the east-based -NAO in clown range. This is a good sign because that is what the weeklies were doing toward the end of February…and if you want a fun period for a few weeks, we want the weeklies to verify more or less. 
 

Note how in response to that, we see an intensifying minimum in heights over the 50/50 region. 
 

 

That's a favorable look for late winter if true. Lots of cold available.

The RNA/-PNA isn't a detriment like it can be in early-mid winter. At the very least you could get some SWFEs. 

Models are definitely trending towards a -NAO

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He whined about Rihanna for two days.

Stapleton  was moving and priceless and a class act. Rihanna was Gonorreahiana 

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think this is a snowy pattern what so ever  With no blocking .. a digging - PNA and stout SE ridge that models always under model .. my money is on this cutting 

it's going to be very difficult for storms to cut with deep negative anomalies over the 50/50 region. this would favor overrunning events and SWFEs that begin cold

even if they do "cut" you're likely to get snow on the front end anyway

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's going to be very difficult for storms to cut with deep negative anomalies over the 50/50 region. this would favor overrunning events and SWFEs that begin cold

even if they do "cut" you're likely to get snow on the front end anyway

Yeah it does look like the pattern will support cold and a nice anticyclone to the north thanks to confluence.

Even if we do "cut" should be a pretty classic SWFE kind of event.