February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

GEFS at 120-144 ... see cold loading across southern Canada/Lakes --> NE is inevitable in that look. 

If we're setting tables that's your white cloth -

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This potential seems to have a lil more going for it than most anything this winter so far for SNE. I think we all know the caveats/nuances, and being that we’ve had zero go right for us, this can easily fail too. But for some reason this seems to have a lil more room to go a lil more right, than the other shit we’ve had to date.  

Why all the “ lil ‘s” ?

[FXWX]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GEFS at 120-144 ... see cold loading across southern Canada/Lakes --> NE is inevitable in that look. 

If we're setting tables that's that's your white cloth -

Obviously, lots of if's still in play, but the overall pattern evolution playing out in recent trends, suggest the most promising period for SNE could be at hand; although that would not take much given the tenor of this winter.   The cold loading & press being modeled by the GEFS would lead to a wonderful period of gradient snows / ice across portions of the region.  I'm certainly not going to commit to high confidence outcome at this time, but I really like the look of the layout across south-central and southeastern Canada and would think confidence will jump quickly over the next 36 to 48 hours, if these trends do not collapse.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Obviously, lots of if's still in play, but the overall pattern evolution playing out in recent trends, suggest the most promising period for SNE could be at hand; although that would not take much given the tenor of this winter.   The cold loading & press being modeled by the GEFS would lead to a wonderful period of gradient snows / ice across portions of the region.  I'm certainly not going to commit to high confidence outcome at this time, but I really like the look of the layout across south-central and southeastern Canada and would think confidence will jump quickly over the next 36 to 48 hours, if these trends do not collapse.

 

Just about exactly where I am in this John

Trending in favor but not leaning in just yet.   I do feel - agreement with Will - that this has a somewhat different appeal at this point comparing predecessor 'failure's; getting this to augment into deeper cold look, is going in the opposite direction when crossing through the D10's "event horizon" ... it's been a very tricky, unsuccessful time range this season.

I mentioned this risk to you in text I believe later Sunday night - the GEFs individual members were 2/3rds in on 'some' kind of risk over eastern mid lat / N/A, though they varied on 'what' that would be.  Part of the reason for that - I feel - is related to the sub-index nature of this signal. It's not really tied to a major modal d(index) - this is almost purely driven by antecedent quasi -EPO in a mass field conflict with persistent RNI signal running by underneath.

Folks, don't aspect this out as a Miller B or anything like that - though not impossible...This is open wave/duration snow/ice, cold rain layout N-S    *IF*IF*IF* and where critical D7 -ish ambient polar boundary lays down... It's all more likely to be that kind of structure - perhaps a nod to that 2015 Feb event for reference...

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why all the “ lil ‘s” ?

Stage name…Lil Wolfie?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Kev would go absolutely wild for a big icer

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stage name…Lil Wolfie?

Maybe his northern Maine drag name?  Go ‘head wit yo bad self lilwolfie!

[FXWX]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Just about exactly where I am in this John

Trending in favor but not leaning in just yet.   I do feel - agreement with Will - that this has a somewhat different appeal at this point comparing predecessor 'failure's; getting this to augment into deeper cold look, is going in the opposite direction when crossing through the D10's "event horizon" ... it's been a very tricky, unsuccessful time range this season.

I mentioned this risk to you in text I believe later Sunday night - the GEFs individual members were 2/3rds in on 'some' kind of risk over eastern mid lat / N/A, though they varied on 'what' that would be.  Part of the reason for that - I feel - is related to the sub-index nature of this signal. It's not really tied to a major modal d(index) - this is almost purely driven by antecedent quasi -EPO in a mass field conflict with persistent RNI signal running by underneath.

Folks, don't aspect this out as a Miller B or anything like that - though not impossible...This is open wave/duration snow/ice, cold rain layout N-S    *IF*IF*IF* and where critical D7 -ish ambient polar boundary lays down... It's all more likely to be that kind of structure - perhaps a nod to that 2015 Feb event for reference...

 

Yes... Your text to me did highlight this potential... Spot on...

[brooklynwx99]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There seems to be cross-guidance agreement on strong confluence and a good antecedent airmass. Those are two things we haven’t had much of this season. So I would agree there is reason to be more optimistic than previously. Still, lead time isn’t inside of 6-7 days yet so we need to cross that threshold. 

I agree. even though there is a SE ridge trying to poke N, the greatest negative anomalies are through Nova Scotia into the 50/50 region, which tells me that there's going to be a lot of confluence. would be difficult to get no wintry weather even if storms cut into the Great Lakes. lots of HP over the top

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The twitterologists are ignoring the RNA and the fact that this SSWE is not going to be anything close to March, 2018 IMO. And they are back with their “MJO 8-1-2” hype. A bunch of people are going to end up with egg on their faces yet again. You can thank the usual cast of weenie mets for this

Would one of them be the weenie wearing shades talking earlier about PUSSY willows blooming...

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why all the “ lil ‘s” ?

Lmao…guess I was feeling a lil jerky…? 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Yes... Your text to me did highlight this potential... Spot on...

well I mention it only because it may need the attention later in the week

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Busting 5+ degrees milder today so far. 50-55 across our area. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Busting 5+ degrees milder today so far. 50-55 across our area. 

 

..time of the year...  It'll do this on day's of this likeness until early August

this goes back to 1990s MOS really - as far as I'm aware.   Every sunny day that ever existed, where there wasn't a -million SD CAA raging ... ends up above machine numbers.

What and why-for that is, ...prooobably has to do with climate normalization, particularly with MAV ext ...  But I'm not sure, because the MEX seems to do the same thing, as does the MAV, a mere day's lead, whence there is almost 0 tickery.

Brian may no something about the tech as he and I have mentioned in the past.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why all the “ lil ‘s” ?

i was gonna make a joke about a 4'10 inmate on an escalator, but it's a lil condescending 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There seems to be cross-guidance agreement on strong confluence and a good antecedent airmass. Those are two things we haven’t had much of this season. So I would agree there is reason to be more optimistic than previously. Still, lead time isn’t inside of 6-7 days yet so we need to cross that threshold. 

Euro's gonna lag toward the 24th but it's got the signal big time in the 12z run.

I still argue given the accelerating velocity footprint over the hemisphere ...that's liable to quicken pace in future guidance. 

It's also got a sneaky emphasis being placed on the 21st ... Haven't honestly been paying too close attention to these foreground "shrapnel" ejections in the stream, for actual production - but it's putting some emphasis on that D7 thing ... which I know you and I were keen on that feature as a table setter..etc.... more for the 23/24th

[Baroclinic Zone]

Another torch.  51F

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro's gonna lag toward the 24th but it's got the signal big time in the 12z run.

I still argue given the accelerating velocity footprint over the hemisphere ...that's liable to quicken pace in future guidance. 

It's also got a sneaky emphasis being placed on the 21st ... Haven't honestly been paying too close attention to these foreground "shrapnel" ejections in the stream, for actual production - but it's putting some emphasis on that D7 thing ... which I know you and I were keen on that feature as a table setter..etc.... more for the 23/24th

Yeah def not a single defined wave. It also has a 3rd wave in between those two for 2/22. It misses us that run but it shows how many different shortwaves could focus more significant cyclogenesis. We don’t know which one it will be. That one later on in the 23-24 timeframe looks the best but can’t rule out a two-wave idea either ala Feb 8-11, 1994 or Dec 19-21, 2008. Even Feb 7-9, 2015 I think had two distinct waves even though in the OES-zone the snow never really shut off…but elsewhere back in our exurbs neck of the woods in the 495 belt, it did. 

[jbenedet]

Less of a warm sector means less of a cold sector on the back-side. Take em' down (from big record highs) Thurs/Friday, means take em up Saturday and Sunday.

 

[brooklynwx99]

nice to see a signal for legit blocking and a 50/50 to boot. even though the system on the ECMWF looks like it's going to torch, all of the entrenched HP over the top keeps us cold and leads to a nice front-end thump. this is something we really haven't seen all winter

the 22-24th remains our first threat of this period, and blocking seems to become more of a factor at the end of the month

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wake me up in 7 days.  I'm currently enjoying Winter 2022/23.

[jbenedet]

DAW 47/24.

"Behind the cold front"

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The twitterologists are ignoring the RNA and the fact that this SSWE is not going to be anything close to March, 2018 IMO. And they are back with their “MJO 8-1-2” hype. A bunch of people are going to end up with egg on their faces yet again. You can thank the usual cast of weenie mets for this

You must have missed this one.

[jbenedet]

Last time we had a -NAO was Dec 20th. Not saying it can't happen but that's clearly a break in persistence. My guess is delayed but not denied.

Hedge accordingly on that front, until March 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You must have missed this one.

why look at the tweets from a pioneer of SPV science when you can talk about 16-18 year old weenies with Twitter fingers?

[Cold Miser]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nice to see a signal for legit blocking and a 50/50 to boot. even though the system on the ECMWF looks like it's going to torch, all of the entrenched HP over the top keeps us cold and leads to a nice front-end thump. this is something we really haven't seen all winter

the 22-24th remains our first threat of this period, and blocking seems to become more of a factor at the end of the month

lol. Where's the rest of it after hour 240?  You know, the part that shows the heavy rains for SNE?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Where's the rest of it after hour 240?  You know, the part that shows the heavy rains for SNE?

I don't think it would even rain for much of NE. 500mb flow is WNW at that point, so I don't think any more latitude would be gained and the system would shear out

would probably be a thump and then light snow as the system slides E

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Where's the rest of it after hour 240?  You know, the part that shows the heavy rains for SNE?

Verbatim that doesn’t look to me like it’s About to bring heavy rain anywhere

but I do laugh and cry simultaneously at another day 10 map .  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I don't think it would even rain for much of NE. 500mb flow is WNW at that point, so I don't think any more latitude would be gained and the system would shear out

would probably be a thump and then light snow as the system slides E

He is one of the ones in CT with like 5" on the season who has become immune to logic as means of self preservation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm also not sure what the RNA has to do with the SSW...they aren't mutually exclusive. Again, March 2018 was RNA...as was many of SNE's most prolific patterns.