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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form

the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1676354400-1676916000-1677175200-20-1.thumb.gif.47b06ec844b6b37d63105016c06d3361.gif

@ORH_wxmanand @Typhoon Tiphave been all over that. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well 1956 is prolific, so something perhaps more tame. 

 

Anyways, I think once again...the Pacific will help determine our fate. I feel like the NAO will flip negative, but if it's more of a lousy PAC (+EPO) then December comes back to haunt us I think. 

My point is, we would replicate 1956 synoptically speaking and probably end up with less snowfall...so yea, from strictly a snowfall standpoint, its probably wise to take the under on March 1956...that said, soon or later we are going to stop paying for 2025 and that luck with change. More likely next December, but possibly next month.

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form

the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1676354400-1676916000-1677175200-20-1.thumb.gif.47b06ec844b6b37d63105016c06d3361.gif

That gets us some blocking showing up by the 23rd.  Will it allow the southern sw to be a coastal and not cut due to the SE Ridge influence?  Looks like a primary up the Apps to a redeveloper near the mid atlantic coast.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well 1956 is prolific, so something perhaps more tame. 

 

Anyways, I think once again...the Pacific will help determine our fate. I feel like the NAO will flip negative, but if it's more of a lousy PAC (+EPO) then December comes back to haunt us I think. 

If we don’t get a -NAO, a good analog for -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge but a cold gradient pattern is March 1967. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My point is, we would replicate 1956 synoptically speaking and probably end up with less snowfall...so yea, from strictly a snowfall standpoint, its probably wise to take the under on March 1956...that said, soon or later we are going to stop paying for 2025 and that luck with change. More likely next December, but possibly next month.

I've seen March 2018 as an analog too. I get it from a synoptic standpoint. Just wondering if there are similar ones with less prolific outcomes.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS op is a good example of why you'll need a sizeable block. We squash a small system to our south later next week, but a beast of a low out west wants to run right into this thing shortly after. 

Look at those scooter highs. 

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I don't like this SSW as much as that one...JMO. I also think that the RNA will be more prevalent.

The twitterologists are ignoring the RNA and the fact that this SSWE is not going to be anything close to March, 2018 IMO. And they are back with their “MJO 8-1-2” hype. A bunch of people are going to end up with egg on their faces yet again. You can thank the usual cast of weenie mets for this
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7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs illustrates how many things have to go right, not much stopping this from running over Detroit 

I don't think it's threading the needle. In fact, it squashes one event next week. There would be wiggle room. I almost want to see that one event squashed in lieu of something much bigger.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You have it backwards lol but keep playing your tune. 

yeah the thing with this potential pattern is that even though the SLP does run into the GL, you have a ton of HP in SE Canada due to the -NAO. the blocking helps keep the cold air locked in enough to lead to a nice front-end thump

enough blocking and the SLP slips underneath entirely

750764262_gfs_z500a_namer_36(1).thumb.png.71a2aa4aadc9ecdd88ea4c9197f77568.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.thumb.png.957fae86d51929de6bb7855567e0d3f7.png

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least we know who to blame if this trends to shit. 

This potential seems to have a lil more going for it than most anything this winter so far for SNE. I think we all know the caveats/nuances, and being that we’ve had zero go right for us, this can easily fail too. But for some reason this seems to have a lil more room to go a lil more right, than the other shit we’ve had to date.  

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah the thing with this potential pattern is that even though the SLP does run into the GL, you have a ton of HP in SE Canada due to the -NAO. the blocking helps keep the cold air locked in enough to lead to a nice front-end thump

enough blocking and the SLP slips underneath entirely

750764262_gfs_z500a_namer_36(1).thumb.png.71a2aa4aadc9ecdd88ea4c9197f77568.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.thumb.png.957fae86d51929de6bb7855567e0d3f7.png

That’s some serious high pressure in a nice spot..1044mb, we take. 

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Charts!! This was sent to me from a met friend. I like this view. Two things I noted. Go back to a week ago.  1) PNA trending more negative. (Shocker). 2) The NAO area with more ridging. 

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North Hemisphere&base_time=202302130000&parameter=geopotential 500 hPa

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Charts!! This was sent to me from a met friend. I like this view. Two things I noted. Go back to a week ago.  1) PNA trending more negative. (Shocker). 2) The NAO area with more ridging. 
 
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North Hemisphere&base_time=202302130000&parameter=geopotential 500 hPa

That RNA has been amazingly persistent and strong since November. It won’t die
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I have always liked the look of an active -PNA with a nice strong block . Seems like they squash often enough to be in a sweet spot for New England snow totals to increase nicely  (sometimes not s coast) and not suppressed like a PNA/ -Nao can do frequently at my latitude  

I just need to see this F**%N block hold and ideally rebuild / last for more than a few days ...otherwise I’d prefer the mild weather 

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This potential seems to have a lil more going for it than most anything this winter so far for SNE. I think we all know the caveats/nuances, and being that we’ve had zero go right for us, this can easily fail too. But for some reason this seems to have a lil more room to go a lil more right, than the other shit we’ve had to date.  

There seems to be cross-guidance agreement on strong confluence and a good antecedent airmass. Those are two things we haven’t had much of this season. So I would agree there is reason to be more optimistic than previously. Still, lead time isn’t inside of 6-7 days yet so we need to cross that threshold. 

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