February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Sn0waddict]

You know  winter is bad when it’s the middle of February and we are discussing high vs low clouds or whether it will hit 50 on both weekend days or not. Ugh.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

You know  winter is bad when it’s the middle of February and we are discussing high vs low clouds or whether it will hit 50 on both weekend days or not. Ugh.

Gotta make the best of it 

[jbenedet]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good luck

KDAW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   2/14/2023  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
TUE  14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21 CLIMO
X/N  41| 26  54| 37  56| 39  48| 13  33| 18  43| 29  45| 32  46 16 37
TMP  34| 29  48| 40  49| 41  36| 16  25| 22  36| 32  40| 35  37
DPT  22| 23  36| 34  35| 37  19|  3   6| 13  22| 26  28| 27  20
CLD  CL| PC  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| CL  CL| CL  CL| PC  PC| PC  PC
WND   9|  2   6|  7   6|  4  15| 16   6|  4   7|  3   5|  4  10
P12   4|  0   6|  3   7| 52  70|  9   3|  9  12| 19  22| 24  21999999
P24    |      6|      8|     87|     13|     18|     27|     32   999
Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |
Q24    |      0|      0|      2|      0|      0|       |
T12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  3   1|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0
T24    |  0    |  2    |  3    |  3    |  1    |  1    |  2
PZP   0|  8   9|  0   0|  1   2|  5   5| 10  10| 10   8|  5   3
PSN  49| 45   0|  2   2|  0  13| 90  90| 68  33| 13  21| 11  41
PRS  32|  0   3|  1   0|  0   9|  3   3| 10  24| 19  15|  8  14
TYP  RS|  S   R|  R   R|  R   R|  S   S|  S  RS|  R   R|  R  RS
SNW    |      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |

 

MOS at hr 120. 

I'll take the 6z GEFS and the tenor of the season; with warm SST's, soil temps and pack beat back to the chicken coop. Thanks.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

And that’s all it is. I thought people would know better at this point. I guess not though, a modeled snowstorm on one set of guidance at day 9 is enough to pimp a big finish while tossing around “AWT” 

It’s coming so you keep those positive hopeful vibes going…shine bright like a diamond.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

MOS at hr 120. 

I'll take the 6z GEFS and the tenor of the season; with warm SST's, soil temps and pack beat back to the chicken coop. Thanks.

I agree with dendrite on Saturday, though Sunday could def over perform 50-55 of things play out right. 

[jbenedet]

Next week I see the troughing out west actually becomes more severe. 

There's a -NAO being advertised beyond 240 though. I think the -NAO needs to come into focus before optimism renews on big snows. Still looks outside 10 days. 

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree with dendrite on Saturday, though Sunday could def over perform 50-55 of things play out right. 

So 33 for a high at DAW?

lol. Any idea what kind of airmasses it took for DAW to peak at </=33 this season?! 

[brooklynwx99]

a -PNA also isn't nearly as much of an issue in March as it is in December due to the shorter wavelengths. a late-season -PNA/-NAO can be prolific

I do want to see the -NAO get solidly inside of 10 days, but I would favor it to happen based on the obliterated SPV down to 50mb. it's obviously not a guarantee at all, but it increases the likelihood 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s coming so you keep those positive hopeful vibes going…shine bright like a diamond.

He’s a ball of joy that one….he has one setting: Total Negativity! 

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

And that’s all it is. I thought people would know better at this point. I guess not though, a modeled snowstorm on one set of guidance at day 9 is enough to pimp a big finish while tossing around “AWT” 

It’s what we do here..we discuss. Way to add to the discussion by scolding folks for discussing modeling, and potential.  You’ve sunk to new depths lol. 

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

So 33 for a high at DAW?

lol. Any idea what kind of airmasses it took for DAW to peak at </=33 this season?! 

Who is arguing 33? We’re arguing 50. lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d like to fast forward to the end of August 2023, and roll em with a new pair Of dice . Love that period into fall and hoping for a fun winter .

Right and then the Pacific teleconnectors  show some f’d up looking, long range pattern, that has everybody handwringing before Halloween.  This place is insane. Lol

[jbenedet]

Just now, dendrite said:

Who is arguing 33? We’re arguing 50. lol

Okay so what's your call?

 

[CoastalWx]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s what we do here..we discuss. Way to add to the discussion by scolding folks for discussing modeling, and potential.  You’ve sunk to new depths lol. 

He’s referring to my “it’s coming” post which wasn’t scientific at all but anyone with a modicum of objectivity can see there are good signs for snow chances in the second half of Feb into Mar. The problem is so many emotional states have been ruined and the only way for them to heal is to see the snow stacking on their lawns.

[jbenedet]

lol the SE ridge. 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s what we do here..we discuss. Way to add to the discussion by scolding folks for discussing modeling, and potential.  You’ve sunk to new depths lol. 

I’m going to stay quiet after this but just my two cents:

I’ve been pretty consistent in thinking late Feb/early March would be conducive for winter to show up (along with others), so the ensemble stuff isn’t surprising.

That said, this winter is so far from ever being redeemable that I’m actually enjoying seeing sun and decent temperatures now. I’m not sure I even want snow. 

It’s just incredible that it’s the same thing over and over. Great look D7-10+, gradual backtracking, crap (here in CT), rinse & repeat. We’ll see if this latest look actually produces. 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Okay so what's your call?

 

My call is under 50 lol

[Great Snow 1717]

57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d like to fast forward to the end of August 2023, and roll em with a new pair Of dice . Love that period into fall and hoping for a fun winter .

Agree!!!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m going to stay quiet after this but just my two cents:

I’ve been pretty consistent in thinking late Feb/early March would be conducive for winter to show up (along with others), so the ensemble stuff isn’t surprising.

That said, this winter is so far from ever being redeemable that I’m actually enjoying seeing sun and decent temperatures now. I’m not sure I even want snow. 

It’s just incredible that it’s the same thing over and over. Great look D7-10+, gradual backtracking, crap (here in CT), rinse & repeat. We’ll see if this latest look actually produces. 

This look has definitely gotten closer than a lot of previous setups. I think I mentioned yesterday this is one of the few nice looks I’ve seen get inside day 10 all winter. The others were back in December and maybe we can count 1/23. 
 

Still plenty of reason to be cautious though. You get a couple wrong movements in the shortwaves and it could turn into another cutter, but I do like the trend of the front-running shortwave being stronger. 

[dendrite]

Sunday is the day to go more aggressive. Late return flow Saturday with moist ground, low dews, and mid Feb sun doesn’t scream 4pm big mixing to me. Maybe in late April or May.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

My call is under 50 lol

Okay for all locations in New England. 

We'll go with that.

[jbenedet]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sunday is the day to go more aggressive. Late return flow Saturday with moist ground, low dews, and mid Feb sun doesn’t scream 4pm big mixing to me. Maybe in late April or May.

That's valid. But I think this "Cold Front" is BS; aka a misnomer. The airmass behind it doesn't even take us to normal Friday night/Sat am. The cold stays bottled up in Northern Maine and SE Canada, and escapes east.

Full sun, west winds, and relatively warm aloft take care of the rest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

1956 ain’t coming, but maybe we can get some action later next week. 

Not in February, no...but we don't need a 50" March to validate it as a viable analog. 

[jbenedet]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sunday is the day to go more aggressive. Late return flow Saturday with moist ground, low dews, and mid Feb sun doesn’t scream 4pm big mixing to me. Maybe in late April or May.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not in February, no...but we don't need a 50" March to validate it as a viable analog. 

What would be a better analog snowfall wise? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Next week I see the troughing out west actually becomes more severe. 

There's a -NAO being advertised beyond 240 though. I think the -NAO needs to come into focus before optimism renews on big snows. Still looks outside 10 days. 

I'm just having some fun with the bravado talk...as I have said before, I could easily see the end of the season failing to produce much, I just have reason to believe that it will be decent snowfall wise. And that isn't out of bias, as some people imply. Ironically enough, the whole pig-headed persistence mindset is a dead-ringer for a bias (not directed at anyone specifically).

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What would be a better analog snowfall wise? 

Strictly in terms of snowfall? Well, it will probably be closer to normal, so lots...but that doesn't mean that 1956 won't end up being a decent analog synoptically speaking. 

We could play out latter January into February 2015 again and we probably don't pull off 100" in 30 days. That isn't how analogs work.

[brooklynwx99]

it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form

the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strictly in terms of snowfall? Well, it will probably be closer to normal, so lots...but that doesn't mean that 1956 won't end up being a decent analog synoptically speaking. 

We could play out latter January into February 2015 again and we probably don't pull off a 100" in 30 days. That isn't how analogs work.

Well 1956 is prolific, so something perhaps more tame. 

 

Anyways, I think once again...the Pacific will help determine our fate. I feel like the NAO will flip negative, but if it's more of a lousy PAC (+EPO) then December comes back to haunt us I think.