WxWatcher007 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Weenies across Connecticut unfurling and hoisting German flags on their properties. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I figured that card would get pulled, but you weren't the one I expected to pull it. Okay...yea, new world...climate change. I now average 40". Take the bet? 63" or greater IMBY next season. Given how much the climate has changed, its easy pickn's for you. It seems like all or nothing seasons nowadays. If the pattern is favorable next year then you'll see a lot of snow. So I wouldn't take that bet for next season because I think it'll be the opposite of this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, radarman said: Th wheel has no memory as they say. At any rate if even odds o/u are being offered you should probably use the median snowfall not the mean. I wonder how it differs around SNE? Not sure tbh Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean. For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2". BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean. If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I haven't had all or nothing seasons last several years. Been sort of consistent except 19-20 which was meh. However, my snowfall seemed to come in 3-5 week stretches vs spread out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean. For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2". BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean. If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1" Do you have the median/mean for BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It seems like all or nothing seasons nowadays. If the pattern is favorable next year then you'll see a lot of snow. So I wouldn't take that bet for next season because I think it'll be the opposite of this one Totally agree that CC has lended itself to more dichotomous seasons in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean. For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2". BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean. If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1" I feel like CC will cause more spread between the mean and median in the future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I haven't had all or nothing seasons last several years. Been sort of consistent except 19-20 which was meh. However, my snowfall seemed to come in 3-5 week stretches vs spread out. Yea, that has been another impact. You are right about that past several years, though....fairly consistent. Mine have been oiined between 44 and 51". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Do you have the median/mean for BDL? BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5" Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like CC will cause more spread between the mean and median in the future. It might...unless the boom or bust seasons are occurring in roughly equal numbers, then it won't change it too much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Weenies across Connecticut unfurling and hoisting German flags on their properties. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Gfs should come north a tick for 2/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I guess overall it is less compressed, still shears out the 2/1 wave. You’d think the follow up would be better now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I guess overall it is less compressed, still shears out the 2/1 wave. You’d think the follow up would be better now… I’ll take 1-3 inches of snow….just done with the rain, feel like I’m back in FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Modfan2 said: I’ll take 1-3 inches of snow….just done with the rain, feel like I’m back in FL Yea. Baby stepping out of this bad stretch should be welcomed by all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We clearly Icon. The I-Cahn storm with a New England accent? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Baby stepping out of this bad stretch should be welcomed by all. We want you to melt >baby steps on 2-1 . Not Personal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 It still suppresses 2/4. We’ll need the geese to help bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We want you to melt >baby steps on 2-1 . Not Personal That would be pretty fun if I melt from a little 2/1 potential gone wrong after I’ve been preaching patience and perspective all season lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That would be pretty fun if I melt from a little 2/1 potential gone wrong after I’ve been preaching patience and perspective all season lol. At some point, you need just rip your clothes off and have a good melt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5" Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4" Thanks. I don’t think I average BDL, I probably mean/median between 40-45. High bar last half decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 GFS laughs at the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: GFS laughs at the ICON. Everyone laughs at the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Everyone laughs at the ICON Not Tblizz. That's his go to model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not Tblizz. That's his go to model. Just go with the least interesting outcome and call it a forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Everyone laughs at the ICON ICON: "Du Hasst Mich" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 This season states...If the Icon says we snow and the GFS says no, then the GFS is correct. If the GFS says we snow and the Icon says we don't, then the Icon is correct. If the _____x____ says we snow and the ____y_____ says no, then the _______y_______ is correct.....Same old story this year, until it proves my if/thenish statement wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Ukie actually tries for a snow event for south of pike for 1/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Bone dry with a side-order of bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 it's always a good sign when half the uncertainty spread of your ensemble mean is actually fighting over the sfc PP of the "high pressure" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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