CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Canadian is probably drunk, but just saw it gives us a happy ending Friday night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Big closing incoming AWT… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 23 minutes ago, CT Rain said: When will KFS flip from warm to cold again? All we know is that it will be fast, hard and dramatic. And the past will disappear while the lollies reappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is probably drunk, but just saw it gives us a happy ending Friday night. as a Canadian I can confirm, we do get drunk quite a bit. that and drywall 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big closing incoming AWT… Gfs only had to hold its solution for 9 more days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs only had to hold its solution for 9 more days You use model OP’s, we use geese. You’ll learn someday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs only had to hold its solution for 9 more days Check out til the weekend, then check back Saturday to see if anything is still there. See how easy that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: All we know is that it will be fast, hard and dramatic. And the past will disappear while the lollies reappear. If this is still there by Friday…the flip will be intense, and the bet will be lost…it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Lots of s/w's too so it's possible the specific event and timing will shift a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big closing incoming AWT… Multiple chances end of next week through mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Take em up this weekend. More 50's and sun for SNE into SE NNE. Beautiful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Take em up this weekend. More 50's and sun for SNE into SE NNE. Beautiful. Saturday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Some of you may remember Oz-Skier now in Alta. Pic of his friend in the parking lot. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Multiple chances end of next week through mid March. With a really good cold source and possibly helping by some nao ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Lol ... some of you don't exactly demonstrate a willingness to operate within the confines of personal restraint. I'm seeing a lot of 'huge finish as we thought' this, and 'all kinds of chances now through March' that. That didn't take long! It's like you entered a rehabilitation clinic for a 90 day court order tactile treatment ... passed the screening, and summarily upon release, drove 90 mph to a crack house ... Even if those notions are just in jest, ... just sayn' As far as the D8-11 period - imho - we are still just talking about a signal. There's some subtle attempt at convergence upon an event, but ... it's quite vague. The Euro and GGEM want it closer to D10. The GFS ...suggestion races matters along, and is flatter and weaker around D8.5 through 9. While all the while, these are solutions that are new - in other words, no continuity is established yet...etc... Well, that's not entirely fair for the GFS... it's been carrying an idea better. If I were taking an early guess at 'extended' model performance, they seem to all be operating slaved to their own bias types. The Euro and especially the GGEM tend to end up with more curvature in the field beyond D7 as a general rule. That probably ...or could, I should say, atone for their slower deeper solutions. The GFS on the other hand, tends to a progressive vibe that grows out in time, such that the wave mechanics get stretched and ultimately interfered with - even if only small fractions. All models have a lot of gradient setting up N-S from higher to lower latitudes across the continent in the D6-12 range... so, timing and ultimately intensity/..placement.. .yikes. Beyond that 12 days ( or so...) I wouldn't even step foot into the casino on this one. Good luck. The longer term planetary cues have us doing a 1976 escape this year. In fact, the only reason I can see why we haven't done some kind of attribution scientist's fantasy escape already, is really all coming down to the quasi ( almost non-descript) -EPO forcing that may not even be coherently evident on the charts. But the end result of Canadian cold loading tends to betray that influence... If not for that one ?saving? grace, imho we'd have crockus and forsythias coming to life already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Hoping and believing Just feels better . As a snow lover good luck shutting that bias out completely . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Still looking like clouds and PM rain will limit Thursday warmth potential especially in CT. Still think 58-65 likely but not the 70 potential we had. It's just high cloudiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Saturday??? Sunday down here. Saturday...no lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hoping and believing Just feels better . I hope the cold and snow fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: Saturday??? Yea speed it up a bit and 50 potential is high in SNE. I don't expect guidance to ever see this though. It'll raise to mid 40's probably, near go time. The Friday CP airmass will be out in less than 24 hrs. West winds. Sun. SE ridge flex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hoping and believing Just feels better . And that’s all it is. I thought people would know better at this point. I guess not though, a modeled snowstorm on one set of guidance at day 9 is enough to pimp a big finish while tossing around “AWT” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 lol it's not hitting 50F on Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Good luck KDAW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2023 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21 CLIMO X/N 41| 26 54| 37 56| 39 48| 13 33| 18 43| 29 45| 32 46 16 37 TMP 34| 29 48| 40 49| 41 36| 16 25| 22 36| 32 40| 35 37 DPT 22| 23 36| 34 35| 37 19| 3 6| 13 22| 26 28| 27 20 CLD CL| PC PC| PC PC| OV OV| CL CL| CL CL| PC PC| PC PC WND 9| 2 6| 7 6| 4 15| 16 6| 4 7| 3 5| 4 10 P12 4| 0 6| 3 7| 52 70| 9 3| 9 12| 19 22| 24 21999999 P24 | 6| 8| 87| 13| 18| 27| 32 999 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| | T12 0| 0 0| 0 0| 3 1| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0 T24 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 PZP 0| 8 9| 0 0| 1 2| 5 5| 10 10| 10 8| 5 3 PSN 49| 45 0| 2 2| 0 13| 90 90| 68 33| 13 21| 11 41 PRS 32| 0 3| 1 0| 0 9| 3 3| 10 24| 19 15| 8 14 TYP RS| S R| R R| R R| S S| S RS| R R| R RS SNW | 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: lol it's not hitting 50F on Saturday Nope not in Northfield. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: And that’s all it is. I thought people would know better at this point. I guess not though, a modeled snowstorm on one set of guidance at day 9 is enough to pimp a big finish while tossing around “AWT” We are objective and we hope ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Just now, jbenedet said: Nope not in Northfield. You're right. Will DAW even hit 40F? You crapped all over the NWS 33F at PSM the other day and it was pretty much spot on and way under your low 40s call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's just high cloudiness It’s gfs vs euro. Euro is later with it and thus a bit warmer. Also I’m looking more at CT for mid to lower level clouds and rain moving in after midday. In my experience these always moved in faster. FWIW NAM brings in rain earlier like gfs too for CT and WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: I hope the cold and snow fails. It likely will . SE ridge people seem to forget about along with a neg PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It likely will . SE ridge people seem to forget about along with a neg PNA We’ve never had any overrunning snow events with a SE ridge and -PNA. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It likely will . SE ridge people seem to forget about along with a neg PNA I’d like to fast forward to the end of August 2023, and roll em with a new pair Of dice . Love that period into fall and hoping for a fun winter . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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