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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Down there in NYC ok.. not interior SNE

how about interior CNE? i average like 2" in Novie. most (~90%) are 0-2", and of course there are a couple outliers with a bigger storm, but those are few and far between. Novie is NOT a winter month.

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16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still looking like clouds and PM rain will limit Thursday warmth potential especially in CT.  Still think 58-65 likely but not the 70 potential we had. 

A9505282-206F-40B7-A07D-16D0A263BDB3.png

8FA106C0-8BD2-4234-BFC9-39C6E169723C.png

95688181-5285-4387-A2EC-9CF014D7F221.png

I agree. I was wrong on that. Destructive interference FTL. 

It’s not all bad for the warm weenies though. Seems to me the trade-off has been less intense warmth for longer duration. This looks like 3 days of 55+ at PSM. The Wednesday wave warms us up but flattens out the subsequent wave and in turn, its warm sector is impinged.
 

Still think 65 is a doable for a chunk of SNE including PSM, but the 70 number is off the table. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I agree. I was wrong on that. Destructive interference FTL. 

It’s not all bad for the warm weenies though. Seems to me the trade-off has been less intense warmth for longer duration. This looks like 3 days of 55+ at PSM. The Wednesday wave warms us up but flattens out the subsequent wave and in turn, its warm sector is impinged.
 

Still think 65 is a doable for a chunk of SNE including PSM, but the 70 number is off the table. 

Ya looks like tomorrow is a real gem 55-60+ mostly sunny. 

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56 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Still looking like clouds and PM rain will limit Thursday warmth potential especially in CT.  Still think 58-65 likely but not the 70 potential we had. 

A9505282-206F-40B7-A07D-16D0A263BDB3.png

8FA106C0-8BD2-4234-BFC9-39C6E169723C.png

95688181-5285-4387-A2EC-9CF014D7F221.png

Yes... I was honestly a little worried about this correcting faster.   The window for open skies was narrow and precariously timed to begin with, and the local hemisphere's a bit faster at the baseline.  

Probably need to start thinking about leaning on the front side of spacial-temporal placement where even dependable event tacking in the D5-7 ( assuming we get that far before the white-board effect ... ) tend to end up earlier....

In the meantime, warmth is in general the most fragile of all aspects and seldom does a narrow window for it, survive the larger numbers of model runs - and now we have a 12 hour wind from 6 days out in a faster atmosphere?   -right  We'll see... 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

1956 ain’t coming, but maybe we can get some action later next week. 

I had a mix in the forecast for Day 9 and Day 10 in the 10-day forecast. It was crazy how long it had been since I've even had something like that pop up on the graphics. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I had a mix in the forecast for Day 9 and Day 10 in the 10-day forecast. It was crazy how long it had been since I've even had something like that pop up on the graphics. 

Yeah for once we have some consistency. Not that it means much this far out, but it’s something.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mean keeps going up daily temps keep going down. It's happening James. Good for you to remain skeptical but hard to ignore 

20230214_071218.jpg

Been doing that all winter LR; based on models I’d be basking in Epicosty but we are not and I am fine with that. Would be nice to see a good storm or two before the seasons out but won’t be surprised if it doesn’t materialize.

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