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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What’s going to happen to all these winter is canceled permanently and we are now the new southern mid Atlantic people when we eventually get another epic winter? 

We don’t even need an epic winter. A mere +2 with average snow would feel like Caribou compared to Philly and DCA climo which is what a swath of SNE has basically felt like this winter. 

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28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol NYC , Beer already? And BDL north of you averages a whopping 1.4” per November which means it doesn’t snow most Novembers. They probably get a good advisory every 3-4 years and a warning once a decade. 

Even ORH only averages about 2.5” in November. He is less than that obviously. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS would be quite a shock to everyone’s senses…getting those 60s later this week and then only having that one colder day on Saturday to rebound back to 40s/50s next week before that boundary presses south and we get 36 hours of snow at temps in the upper teens to mid 20s (depending on proximity to coast). 
 

Anyways, that one could still cut too. Less likely though if the front runner system around D7 is stronger and pulls the boundary south behind it further south…I think that is a major key to the D9 system. 

I’ve been watching that with the same idea

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

both the CMC and GFS have the day 8-10 signal as a strong southern stream wave runs into confluence from the TPV in SE Canada. this is probably our best threat in a while 

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Yea, it's been obvious for awhile. I highlighted the 20-23rd window as the next viable threat in my Thursday night blog....phase change signal. 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well between my wife’s broken arm and this threat my trip my be in jeopardy…..I can tell she’s looking for an excuse to not go.  And I may now have one….but it’s still way off in the distance.

Everyone is going to need you to get on that plane.  Sorry Jer. 

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