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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Too early to know what will happen in March. We need to figure out if all that cold from the SSW comes down, or if it stays up in the stratosphere. In March 2018, it came down but took a few weeks. You said this one isn’t expected to come down, but if it does come down there is a lag so that’s expected. There is no way to know whether or not it will come down this far out so the outlook for March should be taken with a grain of salt. If the cold air doesn’t come down, it will likely be well above normal temps like it’s been all winter. If it does come down, it will likely be much colder and snowier than the weeklies are saying. An ensemble doesn’t really tell the story for this one since the projected 500 mb pattern is a mean, where as the reality is likely to be one of the outlier solutions. Just to be clear, I’m not saying this means snow. It very well could be the warmest ensemble members that have the right idea which means game over. The point I’m making is that IF things break right, it’s not “too late” or any of that nonsense. If you want to argue that the probability things break right is very low, fair enough. But on this subforum we don’t give a flying fuck about average temps in Philly, that’s basically the tropics. In the mid March blizzard of 2018, Philly got RAIN while in New England it was a burial. 

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Weeklies are still weenie-ing out.....I am not sure I buy the west coast ridging/+PNA pattern with aleutian low it keeps showing....however, it does show that UK/Iceland ridging retrograding westward into the NAO domain which would help a lot even if the west coast ridging doesn't happen.

 

 

Feb13_12zEPS2-28.png

Feb13_12zEPS3-7.png

Feb13_12zEPS3-14.png

Feb13_12zEPS3-21.png

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

BDL has had 2 BN days since 12/27 and those came with the brutal cold shot. Looks like more AN for the next week or so too. Pretty remarkable.

 

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

You really have to look at the shoreline stations like BDR, GON and HVN. Its been an absolute furnace down here. HVN has hit 50 or above 17 days since Jan 1st. With 2 highs of 62 in Jan/Feb Incredible.

I volunteer for our local land trust and red maples and weeping willow trees will be leafed out in another week..

 

 

month_1__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100 (2).png

month_02__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100.png

Incredible 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re north of pike…good chance you get at least one advisory-plus type system.

Hell, it could be next week  

 

Oh definitely, but there's far greater shot at 1000'+ than here at 160'.  Especially if we wait until end of Feb./March. Was up in Rindge/New Ipswich today, still 1-3" pack in the woods above 1k and especially 1200

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40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you retro that UK/Iceland/Scandi ridging, then the pattern becomes very loaded for snow....that's prob the one way to get any type of sustained period for snow threats as we go into early March. I currently put it at a low probability but high enough chance that it is worth watching

 

Feb13_12zEPS360.png

Hey Will... just a couple of thoughts... when I look at the physical layout of the projected 500 mb pattern, I am just not sure if there is enough wiggle room for the ridge to retrograde much, and as you stated it hard to have much confidence it is coming westward much.  I see the broadness of the Canadian vortex and the stout look of the Alaskan ridge, just not sure how much wiggle room and flexibility there is within that layout.  Obviously, that assumes it evolves as modeled???  We have 4 pieces of the puzzle; broad polar vortex, modest ridging in the far east side of the -NAO sector, Alaskan ridging and a very broad west to east southern ridge.  Just not sure the room for retrograding is great.  With that in mind, I'm agree with your skepticism.   If we could really get the ridge to retrograde west/northwest, that would help compress the Canadian trough, which in turn would setup a pretty wild gradient between the PV and the southern ridge... that in turn would likely setup a period of fast-moving swfe's for New England; obviously snow potential for any one location would be dependent upon where the cold side gradient ended-up...  Lots of ifs and buts with very low confidence about how all of this will play out over the next 2 to 3 weeks.  Given the tenor of the winter to date, not holding my breath for SNE; especially south of the Pike.

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Weeklies are still weenie-ing out.....I am not sure I buy the west coast ridging/+PNA pattern with aleutian low it keeps showing....however, it does show that UK/Iceland ridging retrograding westward into the NAO domain which would help a lot even if the west coast ridging doesn't happen.
 
 
Feb13_12zEPS2-28.thumb.png.c19828fdb76987f72e13820b4ed6534e.png
Feb13_12zEPS3-7.thumb.png.b4f789991cba9a0378649d737b16b037.png
Feb13_12zEPS3-14.thumb.png.7662ffb663abf37db2ec875ca4470134.png
Feb13_12zEPS3-21.thumb.png.2eea7b9e091d39f4fef911d9c526a48d.png

A -NAO is believable, a +PNA though? lol skeptical hippo
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies are still weenie-ing out.....I am not sure I buy the west coast ridging/+PNA pattern with aleutian low it keeps showing....however, it does show that UK/Iceland ridging retrograding westward into the NAO domain which would help a lot even if the west coast ridging doesn't happen.

 

 

Feb13_12zEPS2-28.png

Feb13_12zEPS3-7.png

Feb13_12zEPS3-14.png

Feb13_12zEPS3-21.png

Sell PNA, buy NAO.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to wrap your head around it.. but most of New England has lost Nov, Dec, Jan and now Feb.  There’s no one here that would have predicted almost snowless winter months . Yet we have done it. And done it with extreme precision 

We were severely bent over.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to wrap your head around it.. but most of New England has lost Nov, Dec, Jan and now Feb.  There’s no one here that would have predicted almost snowless winter months . Yet we have done it. And done it with extreme precision 

We average like one advisory snow every 10 years in November . 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sell PNA, buy NAO.

GEFs extended mean is alleviating the negative PNA ...but only rises to -.5 or so, into the 2nd week of March.   Via Weatherbell.   The 'control' run ( code for George stroking his goatee while he pushes a drift switch in demonic laughter ...) has the PNA spiking madly to +2 SD for 3 days before falling back neutral negative way out there... Probably the synoptic version has an 1888 at the apex, I'm guessing but I'm waiting on an email from George before confirming we're gonna die in a blizzard... 

If it's any help. 

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42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s hard to wrap your head around it.. but most of New England has lost Nov, Dec, Jan and now Feb.  There’s no one here that would have predicted almost snowless winter months . Yet we have done it. And done it with extreme precision 

Some of us did

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anyway...jokes aside... still a signal lurks now D8.5 to 9.5 ish...  so, it's actually survived the 10 day event horizon. 

Solutions vary.. The 12z Euro now has it too - so even something like cross-guidance support from the deterministic version.   The trick is getting that cross g support when it is 3 days away, not f'ing 9... but we'll see.

18z GFS has 2015 redux... about 30 straight hours of moderate snow in cold

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyway...jokes aside... still a signal lurks now D8.5 to 9.5 ish...  so, it's actually survived the 10 day event horizon. 

Solutions vary.. The 12z Euro now has it too - so even something like cross-guidance support from the deterministic version.   The trick is getting that cross g support when it is 3 days away, not f'ing 9... but we'll see.

18z GFS has 2015 redux... about 30 straight hours of moderate snow in cold

18z GFS would be quite a shock to everyone’s senses…getting those 60s later this week and then only having that one colder day on Saturday to rebound back to 40s/50s next week before that boundary presses south and we get 36 hours of snow at temps in the upper teens to mid 20s (depending on proximity to coast). 
 

Anyways, that one could still cut too. Less likely though if the front runner system around D7 is stronger and pulls the boundary south behind it further south…I think that is a major key to the D9 system. 

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