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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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54 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BDL has had 2 BN days since 12/27 and those came with the brutal cold shot. Looks like more AN for the next week or so too. Pretty remarkable.

Oh that is remarkable, but I was referring to warm and dry from now through March April and May…that won’t happen. Unless we 2012, and that’s Not in the cards at this point.  

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

BDL has had 2 BN days since 12/27 and those came with the brutal cold shot. Looks like more AN for the next week or so too. Pretty remarkable.

You really have to look at the shoreline stations like BDR, GON and HVN. Its been an absolute furnace down here. HVN has hit 50 or above 17 days since Jan 1st. With 2 highs of 62 in Jan/Feb Incredible.

I volunteer for our local land trust and red maples and weeping willow trees will be leafed out in another week..

 

 

month_1__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100 (2).png

month_02__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100.png

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24 minutes ago, BrianW said:

You really have to look at the shoreline stations like BDR, GON and HVN. Its been an absolute furnace down here. HVN has hit 50 or above 17 days since Jan 1st. With 2 highs of 62 in Jan/Feb Incredible.

I volunteer for our local land trust and red maples and weeping willow trees will be leafed out in another week..

 

 

month_1__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100 (2).png

month_02__year_2023__station_HVN__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100.png

Wasps came out today....spotted a few flying around, didn't take them long.

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The latest MJO guidance looks warmer as well. I'm seeing GEFS never making to phase 8.
Both the bias corrected GEFS and ECMWF now end in phase 7.
Could of course change but hedge accordingly.

Yep, it’s been unable to propagate 8-1-2 all winter long thanks to the Niña standing wave convection destructively interfering with it and the enhanced trades shearing it apart. Another phase 8 fail looks to be incoming
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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just read that the new Euro weeklies are a torch through the end of this month then they get cooler/colder the 1st 2 weeks of March

If they succeed in the first half of that...  don't ask me how I know but the 2nd half of that fails

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

MJO has been propagating, but the colder phases have been associated with our warmer interludes. P 3-4-5 has been more on the colder side.

Yeah it is pretty similar description to what the weeklies did on Thursday....they started cooling off right near end of month and then went cold/stormy look for first 3 weeks of March.....ensmebles today are similar for end of Feb...colder, but not frigid. Gradient look....trying to build eastbased NAO ridge too, but I'm not buying that until its inside 10-12 days.

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If you retro that UK/Iceland/Scandi ridging, then the pattern becomes very loaded for snow....that's prob the one way to get any type of sustained period for snow threats as we go into early March. I currently put it at a low probability but high enough chance that it is worth watching

 

Feb13_12zEPS360.png

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is pretty similar description to what the weeklies did on Thursday....they started cooling off right near end of month and then went cold/stormy look for first 3 weeks of March.....ensmebles today are similar for end of Feb...colder, but not frigid. Gradient look....trying to build eastbased NAO ridge too, but I'm not buying that until its inside 10-12 days.

I think we definitely would need the NAO help for anything fun. Not sure I buy the flat look with the ridge anomalies over the GOM.  I could be wrong, but I feel like with time, the SE ridge would probably show itself more as we get closer, so we would need help in the NAO region. 

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we definitely would need the NAO help for anything fun. Not sure I buy the flat look with the ridge anomalies over the GOM.  I could be wrong, but I feel like with time, the SE ridge would probably show itself more as we get closer, so we would need help in the NAO region. 

 

I'd agree....even an east-based NAO like building into Iceland/eastern Greenland would be pretty good. But that look seems unstable with the flat ridge over the south....I'd expect it to try and build back northeastward unless the NAO is forcing it from doing that. It's an active look though, so if we could keep on the cold side of the boundary, there could be multiple storms to track in a fairly short time.

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1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

I still think you'll (N ORH/SNH) will get crapped on a few times before deep Spring takes over.  Hopefully rain here.

You’re north of pike…good chance you get at least one advisory-plus type system.

Hell, it could be next week  

 

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