WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 54 minutes ago, dendrite said: BDL has had 2 BN days since 12/27 and those came with the brutal cold shot. Looks like more AN for the next week or so too. Pretty remarkable. Oh that is remarkable, but I was referring to warm and dry from now through March April and May…that won’t happen. Unless we 2012, and that’s Not in the cards at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: BDL has had 2 BN days since 12/27 and those came with the brutal cold shot. Looks like more AN for the next week or so too. Pretty remarkable. You really have to look at the shoreline stations like BDR, GON and HVN. Its been an absolute furnace down here. HVN has hit 50 or above 17 days since Jan 1st. With 2 highs of 62 in Jan/Feb Incredible. I volunteer for our local land trust and red maples and weeping willow trees will be leafed out in another week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It very well may happen Not happening. We couldn’t be so fortunate. No way we go from today, right through the rest of the winter and spring, warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 We roast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, BrianW said: You really have to look at the shoreline stations like BDR, GON and HVN. Its been an absolute furnace down here. HVN has hit 50 or above 17 days since Jan 1st. With 2 highs of 62 in Jan/Feb Incredible. I volunteer for our local land trust and red maples and weeping willow trees will be leafed out in another week.. Wasps came out today....spotted a few flying around, didn't take them long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 The latest MJO guidance looks warmer as well. I'm seeing GEFS never making to phase 8. Both the bias corrected GEFS and ECMWF now end in phase 7. Could of course change but hedge accordingly.Yep, it’s been unable to propagate 8-1-2 all winter long thanks to the Niña standing wave convection destructively interfering with it and the enhanced trades shearing it apart. Another phase 8 fail looks to be incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just read that the new Euro weeklies are a torch through the end of this month then they get cooler/colder the 1st 2 weeks of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Just read that the new Euro weeklies are a torch through the end of this month then they get cooler/colder the 1st 2 weeks of March If they succeed in the first half of that... don't ask me how I know but the 2nd half of that fails 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Roy is chomping at the bit…. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If they succeed in the first half of that... don't ask me how I know but the 2nd half of that fails Lol…very scientific. Weeks 3 and 4 are always low skill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 How would anyone have the weeklies yet? They don't come out until after the regular ensemble run is finished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 MJO has been propagating, but the colder phases have been associated with our warmer interludes. P 3-4-5 has been more on the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: How would anyone have the weeklies yet? They don't come out until after the regular ensemble run is finished. Maybe he meant the ones last week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It very well may happen This is the future, and the future is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Some guidance has been hinting at overrunning or SWFE look later next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Not that I put much stock into TWC 10-day forecasts, I do use them to identify trends. The post 2/23 period has definitely turned decidedly colder/snowier. Let's see if it can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: MJO has been propagating, but the colder phases have been associated with our warmer interludes. P 3-4-5 has been more on the colder side. Yeah it is pretty similar description to what the weeklies did on Thursday....they started cooling off right near end of month and then went cold/stormy look for first 3 weeks of March.....ensmebles today are similar for end of Feb...colder, but not frigid. Gradient look....trying to build eastbased NAO ridge too, but I'm not buying that until its inside 10-12 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 If you retro that UK/Iceland/Scandi ridging, then the pattern becomes very loaded for snow....that's prob the one way to get any type of sustained period for snow threats as we go into early March. I currently put it at a low probability but high enough chance that it is worth watching 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it is pretty similar description to what the weeklies did on Thursday....they started cooling off right near end of month and then went cold/stormy look for first 3 weeks of March.....ensmebles today are similar for end of Feb...colder, but not frigid. Gradient look....trying to build eastbased NAO ridge too, but I'm not buying that until its inside 10-12 days. I think we definitely would need the NAO help for anything fun. Not sure I buy the flat look with the ridge anomalies over the GOM. I could be wrong, but I feel like with time, the SE ridge would probably show itself more as we get closer, so we would need help in the NAO region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Weeklies have looked good all winter. It's over guys, deep inside your weenies you know this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 45/24 DAW. Another +10 Really nice in the sun. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Maybe he meant the ones last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think we definitely would need the NAO help for anything fun. Not sure I buy the flat look with the ridge anomalies over the GOM. I could be wrong, but I feel like with time, the SE ridge would probably show itself more as we get closer, so we would need help in the NAO region. I'd agree....even an east-based NAO like building into Iceland/eastern Greenland would be pretty good. But that look seems unstable with the flat ridge over the south....I'd expect it to try and build back northeastward unless the NAO is forcing it from doing that. It's an active look though, so if we could keep on the cold side of the boundary, there could be multiple storms to track in a fairly short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: This is the future, and the future is now. So bright .. you’ve gotta wear shades? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So bright .. you’ve gotta wear shades? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 45/24 DAW. Another +10 Really nice in the sun. We take. 56 feels amazing here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 45/24 DAW. Another +10 Really nice in the sun. We take. My solar panels produced more this week then the entire month of Jan... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Weeklies have looked good all winter. It's over guys, deep inside your weenies you know this. I still think you'll (N ORH/SNH) will get crapped on a few times before deep Spring takes over. Hopefully rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Maybe all those lawn services that have missed out on plowing $ can make up for it cutting down trees and bushes and planting new ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: I still think you'll (N ORH/SNH) will get crapped on a few times before deep Spring takes over. Hopefully rain here. You’re north of pike…good chance you get at least one advisory-plus type system. Hell, it could be next week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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