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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

How’s the big southeast snowstorm?

What a crap system for winter lover that were excited down there . Maybe an inch at 4500’ in NC mountain ski resort. Just a putrid airmass for anyone outside of NNE/CNE  for snow . Went thru a few of southern forums (mid Atlantic ) to Tennessee valley to N Ga, Virginia and NC mountains .

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Getting pushed south toward us a bit from that UK/Iceland ridging trying to form…that’s what the weeklies went wild with another week later by retrograding that ridge into greenland. I’m skeptical, but if we’re looking for a fun ending, that’s what we’d be watching. 
 

 

4926D9A2-029E-4A1F-BBD3-07127F0EB112.png

Some arctic blocking would really pin this sucker down. Pacific ain't changing but it doesn't have to in this setup. 

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2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

C5BDDC8C-2B7E-4EE5-9DA5-CFEEDBB995AB.png

8BAD535A-D16F-466F-9C4B-0E31A6DD7415.png

We’ll have to watch this aspect, but modeling of clouds 96 hrs out is like clown maps at 240. 
 

General guidance doesn’t have a socked in look at all. I don’t buy it. The cloud output  looks like a wave that runs over PSM. Run of the mill, a lot of what we have seen recently. Completely different than a warm sector that lifts into Canada, which is  being advertised at h5.

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24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We’ll have to watch this aspect, but modeling of clouds 96 hrs out is like clown maps at 240. 
 

General guidance doesn’t have a socked in look at all. I don’t buy it. The cloud output  looks like a wave that runs over PSM. Run of the mill, a lot of what we have seen recently. Completely different than a warm sector that lifts into Canada, which is  being advertised at h5.

H5-H85 is pretty dry. It's mostly just high cloud potential...like a BKN250 where you barely know there's clouds until you see the halo around the sun.

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34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We’ll have to watch this aspect, but modeling of clouds 96 hrs out is like clown maps at 240. 
 

General guidance doesn’t have a socked in look at all. I don’t buy it. The cloud output  looks like a wave that runs over PSM. Run of the mill, a lot of what we have seen recently. Completely different than a warm sector that lifts into Canada, which is  being advertised at h5.

Timing clouds which will bring rain 96 hours away isn’t that hard of a forecast. If the modeled rain moves in from west to east after just midday that will limit the ceiling of the warmth out west, still may be able to torch out east though.  GFS brings in rain about 3 hours earlier as well. Something to watch in terms of ceiling of warmth. 

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21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Timing clouds which will bring rain 96 hours away isn’t that hard of a forecast. If the modeled rain moves in from west to east after just midday that will limit the ceiling of the warmth out west, still may be able to torch out east though.  GFS brings in rain about 3 hours earlier as well. Something to watch in terms of ceiling of warmth. 

That’s not your CF and well defined warm sector with 100% clouds in 1/3 of the CONUS. That’s all I’m saying. Doesn’t fit the bill; not at all.

The rain on Thursday is a facade. That’s mesolow climo flexin’. Illusory. The real rain is on Friday.

This is wonky. Sell the modeled qpf in New England on Thurs.

0305EE96-82AF-405B-B7C0-9D619F95276D.gif

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