February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah so...the problem is the compression and the hurried velocities of the flow during the week to 10 days.

The models don't typically perform very well when the flow is high velocity, because the flow is too integrated.  Looser more open flows with greater hydrostatic gradients - that's where organized storms are handled better.   But when the flow is highly integrated from larger to small scales... small wobbles in run-to-run placement of larger features had directly causes large constructive or destructive interference...  It can mean total disappearance and then reappearance across successive model runs.

That's why one run has the 1s...the next run doesn't, but focuses on the 3rd... then scrubs both in lieu of the 25th on the next...  then it's back to the 23rd, sans the other two... and that's really what these last several model cycles are doing.

The question is naturally which, if any, are real?  

The 00z GGEM like the 21z for a flat fast progressive wave.  That structure of system is actually not a bad solution in this hurried trajectory and tendency for compression. In its solution, said compression is just relaxed enough to allow the wave to squeeze through with enough conserved mechanics to get a light to moderate event through the region. 

The other guidance destructively interfere to oblivion.

The 23-25th system is still there but 00z/06z GFS can't get the flow to 'kink' N of the compression axis in the TV-MA region so we stay boring cold and dry.  Euro seems to have even less 1st ... but is suggestive toward the 5th-7th again.

The end of the Euro run enters a new era of relaxing flow as the elephants N/stream lifts into the maritime region of Canada... but that's of course at the horizon of the guidance so cannot be really be used deterministically - it's nice eye candy though lol. 

Looking ahead... the flow will likely to relax... but, I'm also concerned that as it does, we'll see a pretty profound correction in the total flow structure ... visible in guidance by then, that is ... unfriendly to winter enthusiasts.   There's valid reasons to assess that as having more probability to occur than a cold reload at this time.

 

 

Is the Miami rule going into effect first week of February 

[George001]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

His forecast was pretty spot on actually but like you said for the wrong reasons. 

At least things can only go up from here next winter. So far it's in the top 3 for futility for me (lack of snow + warmth)

If I don't get any snow this winter and given how warm Feb will turn it'll easily be #1 in futility. 

We don’t know what Feb will do yet. Due to how much ground we gotta make up its more likely than not that the season ends with below average snow, but it’s no guarantee and there is a big difference between slightly below average and a full blown rat.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

I got a jar of gummies a guest left behind at a property. They have cbd, cbn, and something called delta-8. It says 10mg of each per gummie. I took one before bed a few nights ago. Learned that taking a fully gummy was way too strong. I felt like instead of my body being on top of the bed, I sunk through the the mattress. Weird weird weird. Now I cut them in half. 

Yea. I always tell folks to start small and level up if needed but sinking through the mattress is lol. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't see how having a bad season makes the next year more likely to be good. To me, that's like saying because I got 8 heads in a row, the next coin flip has a better shot at being tails....nope, the next coin toss is 50/50.

 

Like when I see people betting on red after 5 consecutive blacks lol. “It has to be red now.”

[CoastalWx]

Not sure what to make of the ensembles for 2/1. Even GEFS hint at it. Part of me thinks that suppression will rule, but we shall see.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just looks hostile to the north with the compacted flow/confluence building in in the 1st week.  Need that to cooperate to get storms to come north.

[mahk_webstah]

Though not a meteorologist, I have stayed in many hotels including Holiday Inn Express.  And I read the board.  And my brain isn't ruined by edibles.

I have a couple of worthless thoughts, which I express because I'm an extravert.

1.  All season cold snaps have been overplayed.  I don't believe it is likely that the GFS (Tip's elephant trampoline) is going to happen, so I am leery of suppression at least for very long.  It would be nice to feed the weenies with a MA SNE snow storm, although of course I would miss out. 

2.  We have had multiple indications of a gradient pattern, and have experienced it.  Because Canada is getting real cold we will likely have opportunities for storms travelling the boundary with cold available to tap.  With a western trough still spitting out energy, and with a SE Ridge, I think we wont' have long last suppression, and I think we will have light to moderate storms for the next couple of weeks, some of which will surprise us.  My pack will probably be bigger on Feb 10 than the 14-18 or so thick inches we have now.

3.  Probably a big storm between about Feb 7-10, before a warmer stretch?

We have a pack that is meaty and thick.  Would take some nights above freeezing and a lot of rain to get rid of that.  Maybe we can give the gradient a little nudge south and supply ya'll with some cold air.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure what to make of the ensembles for 2/1. Even GEFS hint at it. Part of me thinks that suppression will rule, but we shall see.

At least the trend in this type of pattern is often to trend things north....doesn't always work, but there's a good SE ridge.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

At least the trend in this type of pattern is often to trend things north....doesn't always work, but there's a good SE ridge.

 

I was thinking about that earlier. This is the perfect pattern for it too. Hi mid Atlantic posters  

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is the Miami rule going into effect first week of February 

if you're seriously asking ... heh, I don't know how we can separate the two - an elephant's sitting on a trampoline flow, vs that Miami rule...  The mashed compression masks any identity of the latter.

Miami rule is a rough means to assess S/W strength corrections as they descend down an otherwise seemingly favorable total +PNAP flow construct.  If the heights are higher than ~ 582 over Miami, and the geopotential gradient is steep there prior to the S/W descending SE of roughly the Dakotas...whatever the models are doing along the EC with said S/W, to energize the mood in this social media, plan on that mood feeling betrayed - it's a matter of how much or how little... heh.   It's more of an operational weather trick

 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least the trend in this type of pattern is often to trend things north....doesn't always work, but there's a good SE ridge.

 

Well that's what I hope. Hopefully things look more interesting today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don't see how having a bad season makes the next year more likely to be good. To me, that's like saying because I got 8 heads in a row, the next coin flip has a better shot at being tails....nope, the next coin toss is 50/50.

 

I'll bet you $200 right now that I finish with more than 63" next season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you are viewing it in a vacuum through shear mathematical probability, than you are correct.......but given how I feel the next warm ENSO event will evolve, and the fact that I have never gone six consecutive well below average snowfall seasons in well over 50 years of data, I feel more confident than 50/50.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was thinking about that earlier. This is the perfect pattern for it too. Hi mid Atlantic posters  

You wonder how long Ant can remain patient in his squad car late at night in the dark alleys of Manhattan before he starts raging on civilians leaving the bars. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you are viewing it in a vacuum through shear mathematical probability, than you are correct.......but given how I feel the next warm ENSO event will evolve, and the fact that I have never gone six consecutive well below average snowfall seasons in well over 50 years of data, I feel more confident than 50/50.

The first part of your quote is perfectly valid....if we believe that we're going for a modoki El Nino, then there's reason to be think it's good.

But the bolded is pretty much completely irrelevant. The reason you never had 6 in a row is because you previously never had 5 in a row (and rarely even had 3 or 4 in a row)....well, we already have had 5 in a row. That makes 6 in a row a hell of a lot easier when you already have 5 banked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The first part of your quote is perfectly valid....if we believe that we're going for a modoki El Nino, then there's reason to be think it's good.

But the bolded is pretty much completely irrelevant. The reason you never had 6 in a row is because you previously never had 5 in a row (and rarely even had 3 or 4 in a row)....well, we already have had 5 in a row. That makes 6 in a row a hell of a lot easier when you already have 5 banked.

I'm sure in the federal court of mathematics, you are correct....but like I said, I am very comfortable betting against such an occurrence. Put your money where your calculator is. I am a man of my word...pickles would tell you that. I always pay up...

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Just looks hostile to the north with the compacted flow/confluence building in in the 1st week.  Need that to cooperate to get storms to come north.

I have stopped even looking....aside from what I need to do to maintain the blog, but I am de-invested.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure in the federal court of mathematics, you are correct....but like I said, I am very comfortable betting against such an occurrence. Put your money where your calculator is. I am a man of my word...pickles would tell you that. I always pay up...

Well I wouldn't bet on it either because of the potential for El Nino....but outside of that, the other stuff doesn't matter.

If we go into next year neutral ENSO, and you are still overwhelmingly confident in a big season, I'd take the bet with odds.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ugh.. lord with these teleconnectors.  They are in a numerical equivalence to a significant event (signal ~ the 2nd to 7 ..8th), but the actual spatial means are not - usually, one corrects toward the other but it seems we're nearing that time and that is not happening. 

The -EPO leads a +d(PNA), which means the EPO is progressive in nature. That's a cold loading and more favorable regime to storminess (eventually) over eastern N/A, compared to the retrograde EPO variant - which loads trough more semi-permanently into the W and we roast yadda yadda.

Despite that progressive EPO, ... .we are getting nothing but compression/destructive interference between the large and small scales.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well I wouldn't bet on it either because of the potential for El Nino....but outside of that, the other stuff doesn't matter.

If we go into next year neutral ENSO, and you are still overwhelmingly confident in a big season, I'd take the bet with odds.

I would pull it, at that point....but I would be willing to offer it now. Well, anyway, like I said....mathwise, you are right, but there is a reason you won't take the bet lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ugh.. lord with these teleconnectors.  They are in a numerical equivalence to a significant event (signal ~ the 2nd to 7 ..8th), but the actual spatial means are not - usually, one corrects to the other but it seems we're nearing that time and that is not happening. 

The -EPO leads a +d(PNA), which means the EPO is progressive in nature. That's a cold loading and more favorable region to storminess (eventually) over eastern N/A, compared to the retrograde EPO variant - which loads trough more semi-permanently into the W and we roast yadda yadda.

Despite that progressive EPO, ... .we are getting nothing but compression/destructive interference between the large and small scales.

I am honest to god pulling for a fast termination of the cold....it doesn't look too particularly likely to deliver, and even if it did, the most likely period is when I'll be tending to the wife and newborn in the hospital.

Hard pass.

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you are viewing it in a vacuum through shear mathematical probability, than you are correct.......but given how I feel the next warm ENSO event will evolve, and the fact that I have never gone six consecutive well below average snowfall seasons in well over 50 years of data, I feel more confident than 50/50.

Kinda seems like you're ignoring the big climate sized elephant in the room. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Kinda seems like you're ignoring the big climate sized elephant in the room. 

I figured that card would get pulled, but you weren't the one I expected to pull it.

Okay...yea, new world...climate change. I now average 40".

Take the bet? 63" or greater IMBY next season. Given how much the climate has changed, its easy pickn's for you.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would pull it, at that point....but I would be willing to offer it now. Well, anyway, like I said....mathwise, you are right, but there is a reason you won't take the bet lol

Yes, not because of "5 bad ones in a row means i have a better shot at doing well next year"....you're offering an even money bet when we're about to go into an El Nino (that has a good chance at being modoki)....the fact that you said you would pull the bet if that didn't happen also means you agree with me that the El Nino factor is the real reason you're confident in better snow next season, not because of the voodoo "6 in a row".

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, not because of "5 bad ones in a row means i have a better shot at doing well next year"....you're offering an even money when we're about to go into an El Nino (that has a good chance at being modoki)....the fact that you said you would pull the bet if that didn't happen also means you agree with me that the El Nino factor is the real reason you're confident in better snow next season, not because of the voodoo "6 in a row".

Good point.

I second thought, I will leave it on the table under any ENSO conditions.

[radarman]

The wheel has no memory as they say.  At any rate if even odds o/u are being offered you should probably use the median snowfall not the mean.  I wonder how it differs around SNE?  Not sure tbh

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw  (not much...) but the new ICON solution likes the notion on the 1st of bringing NYC seasonal snow total higher than Boston's

[CoastalWx]

I also took Ray's point under the climo regression idea. IOW, eventually at some point Climo tries to even out and eventually get back to the long term norms. I think that is what Ray meant by odds. 

[CoastalWx]

We clearly Icon.

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was thinking about that earlier. This is the perfect pattern for it too. Hi mid Atlantic posters  

Might actually be our turn to "cash in"....