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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Can we point to one or more large scale features for why winter never showed up this year?  We had good patterns that ended up 40F and sun and then rained.  We’ve had bad luck. We’ve had extreme cold, followed by rain.  This is basically a Virginia winter. 

It also hasn't been just you guys either. It's been widespread. Absolutely awful winter here in Upstate NY as well.

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Garlic sprouting already. Just noticed it but looks to have started about a week ago. 
 

It’s my first time growing garlic; so unsure how unusual this is, but I was expecting to see this level of growth about a month later.

Yea early for sure. Cold weather crop very hardy should be fine.

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34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It also hasn't been just you guys either. It's been widespread. Absolutely awful winter here in Upstate NY as well.

I think the entire eastern half of the US south of at least 45N has had a sh*t winter. It's not been as bad in SE MI as in SNE, but still. I'm at 19.8" season to date. There was a period of winter in mid November, Christmas week, and late Jan to early Feb. Snow blanketed the ground for a few days in mid Nov, for a week at Christmas (perfect timing) and for 17 straight days Jan into Feb. That's it. I spent lots of time outdoors the previous several weeks enjoying the snow and with it being sunny and dry this weekend I said "now that the weather is awful and sunny, I can get stuff done indoors" lol

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18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The proverbial “mean reversion” is a case of careful what you wish for.

BN and dry more likely than BN and snowy on that merit.

Western half (sans the coast) of US hasn’t seen much of anything.

 

 

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That seems hard to believe that out west hasn’t seen much outside the coast… given the widespread much above normal SWE in almost all mountain areas out there.

Most of the ski areas out there are absolutely buried, some record snows.  They’ve had a lot of QPF.

Whats been the change from pre-winter?

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Just now, powderfreak said:

That seems hard to believe that out west hasn’t seen much outside the coast… given the widespread much above normal SWE in almost all mountain areas out there.

Most of the ski areas out there are absolutely buried, some record snows.  They’ve had a lot of QPF.

Whats been the change from pre-winter?

Yeah that will change after the snow melts. The central Sierra snow lab is already 110% of SWE climo. 

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Models have made a case they can’t handle Weighing  whatever is going on (And persistent) with the tropical forcing to the point they have consistently been biased toward overforecasting heights in SW USA (Baja) etc and all the ripple effects associated with that . Maybe I’m wrong but it sure as heck seems some sort of bias Regarding (Perhaps) handling of the Tropical forcing has been exposed that makes their 10-15 day modeled maps look Foolish in this Nina as we get toward the 5-8 day outlook. Bad luck ...or lack of awareness Of a complex relationship that models aren’t programmed to handle well ? 

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think the entire eastern half of the US south of at least 45N has had a sh*t winter. It's not been as bad in SE MI as in SNE, but still. I'm at 19.8" season to date. There was a period of winter in mid November, Christmas week, and late Jan to early Feb. Snow blanketed the ground for a few days in mid Nov, for a week at Christmas (perfect timing) and for 17 straight days Jan into Feb. That's it. I spent lots of time outdoors the previous several weeks enjoying the snow and with it being sunny and dry this weekend I said "now that the weather is awful and sunny, I can get stuff done indoors" lol

What is the seasonal average?

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That seems hard to believe that out west hasn’t seen much outside the coast… given the widespread much above normal SWE in almost all mountain areas out there.

Most of the ski areas out there are absolutely buried, some record snows.  They’ve had a lot of QPF.

Whats been the change from pre-winter?

Bullshit monitor is what I call it.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that will change after the snow melts. The central Sierra snow lab is already 110% of SWE climo. 

 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bullshit monitor is what I call it.

Yeah that was a bold call by the Pope to use that graphic to show the West hasn't seen much and that it's mostly cold and dry.

That's just not paying attention.  Not going to slip that by skiers, ha.

The SWE from Colorado, through all of Utah, Nevada, the Sierra, the SW, and up into parts of Wyoming to southern Oregon... all doing very well and having strong snowfall seasons.  There are a lot of 175-200+ numbers in those counties (percent of normal snowpack).

Only place drier than normal on average is the far northern tier... but even up there a lot of it is 85-110% SWE.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

 

Yeah that was a bold call by the Pope to use that graphic to show the West hasn't seen much and that it's mostly cold and dry.

That's just not paying attention.  Not going to slip that by skiers, ha.

The SWE from Colorado, through all of Utah, Nevada, the Sierra, the SW, and up into parts of Wyoming to southern Oregon... all doing very well and having strong snowfall seasons.

Only place drier than normal on average is the far northern tier... but even up there a lot of it is 85-110% SWE.

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And to clarify, they are 110% for the year!! Not just up to now. They said that typically happens in late March. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Yeah that was a bold call by the Pope to use that graphic to show the West hasn't seen much and that it's mostly cold and dry.

That's just not paying attention.  Not going to slip that by skiers, ha.

The SWE from Colorado, through all of Utah, Nevada, the Sierra, the SW, and up into parts of Wyoming to southern Oregon... all doing very well and having strong snowfall seasons.

Only place drier than normal on average is the far northern tier... but even up there a lot of it is 85-110% SWE.

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The Mississippi is low because of summer drought but headwaters haven't melted out yet.

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9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What is the seasonal average?

The seasonal average for Detroit is 45.0". 

The 19.8" is my backyard in Wyandotte, MI. DTW officially is 19.3", average to date 29.9" (so still 15" more to go on average). 

There have been 25 days with 1"+ snow on the ground and average for a winter is 50.

One side note, we are a little less feast/famine out here than you guys are due the differences in climate. We see more frequent snow but less huge storms. So the chances of 100" in a month or a single digit Winter such as Boston has seen each of recently, just does not happen here. I've been measuring snow in my backyard for 28 years, and the snowiest winter I've had was 96.2" in 2013-14, and the least snowy was 25.5" in 2011-12.

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12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What is the seasonal average?

One thing I will say is I definitely made the most of being outdoors when there was snow. Especially since I love nature photography. I know somehow in SNE around the "let's go for futility" bandwagon but I'm telling you, if you get a snowstorm it's good for the snow weenies soul to go out and enjoy it.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

One thing I will say is I definitely made the most of being outdoors when there was snow. Especially since I love nature photography. I know somehow in SNE around the "let's go for futility" bandwagon but I'm telling you, if you get a snowstorm it's good for the snow weenies soul to go out and enjoy it.

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I'm not a member of THAT bandwagon! lol...

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