TugHillMatt Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Can we point to one or more large scale features for why winter never showed up this year? We had good patterns that ended up 40F and sun and then rained. We’ve had bad luck. We’ve had extreme cold, followed by rain. This is basically a Virginia winter. It also hasn't been just you guys either. It's been widespread. Absolutely awful winter here in Upstate NY as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, TugHillMatt said: It also hasn't been just you guys either. It's been widespread. Absolutely awful winter here in Upstate NY as well. for much of the eastern half of the US...can't even refer to it as a winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Are we incorporating weather data from the Chinese balloons into NCEP? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Garlic sprouting already. Just noticed it but looks to have started about a week ago. It’s my first time growing garlic; so unsure how unusual this is, but I was expecting to see this level of growth about a month later. Yea early for sure. Cold weather crop very hardy should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 The effects of a -PNA in March is different than a -PNA in mid winter. Just need some arctic blockingNot true. If you have a -PNA full latitude trough digging for gold in Baja, it’s not good, March or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But that also is not true. Yea I mean these look exactly the same.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 The proverbial “mean reversion” is a case of careful what you wish for. BN and dry more likely than BN and snowy on that merit. Western half (sans the coast) of US hasn’t seen much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Climate change is a motherf’ckr. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It also hasn't been just you guys either. It's been widespread. Absolutely awful winter here in Upstate NY as well. I think the entire eastern half of the US south of at least 45N has had a sh*t winter. It's not been as bad in SE MI as in SNE, but still. I'm at 19.8" season to date. There was a period of winter in mid November, Christmas week, and late Jan to early Feb. Snow blanketed the ground for a few days in mid Nov, for a week at Christmas (perfect timing) and for 17 straight days Jan into Feb. That's it. I spent lots of time outdoors the previous several weeks enjoying the snow and with it being sunny and dry this weekend I said "now that the weather is awful and sunny, I can get stuff done indoors" lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Climate change is a motherf’ckr. It sure is.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 It’s not CC lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The proverbial “mean reversion” is a case of careful what you wish for. BN and dry more likely than BN and snowy on that merit. Western half (sans the coast) of US hasn’t seen much of anything. That seems hard to believe that out west hasn’t seen much outside the coast… given the widespread much above normal SWE in almost all mountain areas out there. Most of the ski areas out there are absolutely buried, some record snows. They’ve had a lot of QPF. Whats been the change from pre-winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Man this just gave me movement. Juicy srn system with my high moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Here ya go... any takers ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Climate change is a motherf’ckr. Said no one west of the Mississippi 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: That seems hard to believe that out west hasn’t seen much outside the coast… given the widespread much above normal SWE in almost all mountain areas out there. Most of the ski areas out there are absolutely buried, some record snows. They’ve had a lot of QPF. Whats been the change from pre-winter? Yeah that will change after the snow melts. The central Sierra snow lab is already 110% of SWE climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Models have made a case they can’t handle Weighing whatever is going on (And persistent) with the tropical forcing to the point they have consistently been biased toward overforecasting heights in SW USA (Baja) etc and all the ripple effects associated with that . Maybe I’m wrong but it sure as heck seems some sort of bias Regarding (Perhaps) handling of the Tropical forcing has been exposed that makes their 10-15 day modeled maps look Foolish in this Nina as we get toward the 5-8 day outlook. Bad luck ...or lack of awareness Of a complex relationship that models aren’t programmed to handle well ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I think the entire eastern half of the US south of at least 45N has had a sh*t winter. It's not been as bad in SE MI as in SNE, but still. I'm at 19.8" season to date. There was a period of winter in mid November, Christmas week, and late Jan to early Feb. Snow blanketed the ground for a few days in mid Nov, for a week at Christmas (perfect timing) and for 17 straight days Jan into Feb. That's it. I spent lots of time outdoors the previous several weeks enjoying the snow and with it being sunny and dry this weekend I said "now that the weather is awful and sunny, I can get stuff done indoors" lol What is the seasonal average? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That seems hard to believe that out west hasn’t seen much outside the coast… given the widespread much above normal SWE in almost all mountain areas out there. Most of the ski areas out there are absolutely buried, some record snows. They’ve had a lot of QPF. Whats been the change from pre-winter? Bullshit monitor is what I call it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that will change after the snow melts. The central Sierra snow lab is already 110% of SWE climo. All the west is AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that will change after the snow melts. The central Sierra snow lab is already 110% of SWE climo. 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bullshit monitor is what I call it. Yeah that was a bold call by the Pope to use that graphic to show the West hasn't seen much and that it's mostly cold and dry. That's just not paying attention. Not going to slip that by skiers, ha. The SWE from Colorado, through all of Utah, Nevada, the Sierra, the SW, and up into parts of Wyoming to southern Oregon... all doing very well and having strong snowfall seasons. There are a lot of 175-200+ numbers in those counties (percent of normal snowpack). Only place drier than normal on average is the far northern tier... but even up there a lot of it is 85-110% SWE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that was a bold call by the Pope to use that graphic to show the West hasn't seen much and that it's mostly cold and dry. That's just not paying attention. Not going to slip that by skiers, ha. The SWE from Colorado, through all of Utah, Nevada, the Sierra, the SW, and up into parts of Wyoming to southern Oregon... all doing very well and having strong snowfall seasons. Only place drier than normal on average is the far northern tier... but even up there a lot of it is 85-110% SWE. And to clarify, they are 110% for the year!! Not just up to now. They said that typically happens in late March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that was a bold call by the Pope to use that graphic to show the West hasn't seen much and that it's mostly cold and dry. That's just not paying attention. Not going to slip that by skiers, ha. The SWE from Colorado, through all of Utah, Nevada, the Sierra, the SW, and up into parts of Wyoming to southern Oregon... all doing very well and having strong snowfall seasons. Only place drier than normal on average is the far northern tier... but even up there a lot of it is 85-110% SWE. The Mississippi is low because of summer drought but headwaters haven't melted out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Talk about a cool place to work. Not sure if anybody follows them, but those guys get to weenie out and do all bunch of stuff, but for science. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: What is the seasonal average? The seasonal average for Detroit is 45.0". The 19.8" is my backyard in Wyandotte, MI. DTW officially is 19.3", average to date 29.9" (so still 15" more to go on average). There have been 25 days with 1"+ snow on the ground and average for a winter is 50. One side note, we are a little less feast/famine out here than you guys are due the differences in climate. We see more frequent snow but less huge storms. So the chances of 100" in a month or a single digit Winter such as Boston has seen each of recently, just does not happen here. I've been measuring snow in my backyard for 28 years, and the snowiest winter I've had was 96.2" in 2013-14, and the least snowy was 25.5" in 2011-12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And to clarify, they are 110% for the year!! Not just up to now. They said that typically happens in late March. Colorado reservoirs without snow melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: What is the seasonal average? One thing I will say is I definitely made the most of being outdoors when there was snow. Especially since I love nature photography. I know somehow in SNE around the "let's go for futility" bandwagon but I'm telling you, if you get a snowstorm it's good for the snow weenies soul to go out and enjoy it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: One thing I will say is I definitely made the most of being outdoors when there was snow. Especially since I love nature photography. I know somehow in SNE around the "let's go for futility" bandwagon but I'm telling you, if you get a snowstorm it's good for the snow weenies soul to go out and enjoy it. I'm not a member of THAT bandwagon! lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just avoiding the cirrus up here. Beautiful day. 42° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Here ya go... any takers ? Yes please!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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