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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:


The GEFS ext and EPS show -NAO blocking in March but the GEFS maintains the -PNA/SE ridge. It looks convoluted going into the 1st/2nd week of March, I don’t think the models are even close to coming to a consensus yet

GEFs weeklies looked lousy. Euro weeklies looked nice. 

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno…one run and there’s a 50/50 minimum in the height field. It didn’t look warm. 

Pretty sure most know my position on matters by now ... but whatever.  With this very veracious litany of indicators actually existing and present in reality:

+AO/+NAO/-PNA  ...

ROBUST MJO in phase 3-6 on going and ( probably ) just not as of yet registering a forcing signature (but it may be on the way) ... 

La Nina climo/springs ...

Recent years with these February 'warm bursting' synoptics ... appearing to be independent of ENSO this or polar field that ...

and WTF,  may as well toss in climate change leaning on everything far more undeniably than the consortium cares to admit ...

That looks warm.

I just keep waiting for the other shoe to fall, and after a relentless tug of war ...finally, a series of model runs offer up the movie that really should have been premiered already by now: staring some kind of turbo ridge from Hades. I have been biding time out of deference to the Euro and GGEM and GFS with these huge resorvoirs of cold lurking across the Canadian shield. They are bleeding enough of that to roughly 45 lat that we're ending up  with this potent ambient hydrostatic gradient ( that looks like March frankly, but even more intense).  

All that is doing, though, is making the gradient so excessive that these S/W are intrinsically embedded in an utterly hostile velocity shear fest.   The Lakes cutter persistence has solid "immovable" fit, too, because that litany of warm cues above may just be like two elephants leaning on each other, and their ass cheek touch along a PHX to DET line.  It's just locked in that persistence by two overwhelmingly titanic forces ... (transient -EPOs are the culprit on the other side).

I would not say it is likely, but there is a something better than a mere non-zero possibility ...we've seen our last snow this year.  I mean I'd put the odds of that at the lower end, but > than most years or the 300 years (irrelevant?) climatological signal.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can someone create a futuristic photo of ginxy’s snow train stuck in the mud of Morch

Is there anyone willing to take the opposite side of a wager that Boston will see less snow then they average in March . Please.

Pickles are you stoned again. Shouldn't you be skiing. Haven't seen one picture of you out skiing. I mean a single guy on a BB all day. Go go go man your life is too short and you never know when your last ski adventure will happen. 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can someone create a futuristic photo of ginxy’s snow train stuck in the mud of Morch

Is there anyone willing to take the opposite side of a wager that Boston will see less snow then they average in March . Please.

There’s evidence for a couple of weeks that March could produce. My point is that I want to see those changes roll forward and not get pushed back. 
 

Models sometime rush changes because of those CCKWs. Sometimes the overriding background of whatever is happening in the tropics causes those changes to never occur. So my comments are not just emotions like some have here, my point is based on science too. Hopefully those changes on the Atlantic side come to fruition. 

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty sure most know my position on matters by now ... but whatever.  With this very veracious litany of indicators actually existing and present in reality:

+AO/+NAO/-PNA  ...

ROBUST MJO in phase 3-6 on going and ( probably ) just not as of yet registering a forcing signature (but it may be on the way) ... 

La Nina climo/springs ...

Recent years with these February 'warm bursting' synoptics ... appearing to be independent of ENSO this or polar field that ...

and WTF,  may as well toss in climate change leaning on everything far more undeniably than the consortium cares to admit ...

That looks warm.

I just keep waiting for the other show to fall, and after a relentlessly bloody battle ...finally, a series of model runs offer up a movie staring some kind of turbo ridge from Hades. I have been biding time out of deference to the Euro and GGEM and GFS with these huge resorvoirs of cold lurking across the Canadian shield. They are bleeding enough of that to roughly 45 lat that we're ending up  with this potent ambient hydrostatic gradient ( that looks like March frankly, but even more intense).  

All that is doing, though, is making the gradient so excessive that these S/W are intrinsically embedded in an utterly hostile velocity shear fest.   The Lakes cutter persistence has solid "immovable" fit, too, because that litany of warm cues above may just be like two elephants leaning on each other, and their ass cheek touch along a PHX to DET line.  It's just locked in that persistence by two overwhelmingly titanic forces ... (transient -EPOs are the culprit on the other side).

I would not say it is likely, but there is a something better than a mere non-zero possibility ...we've seen our last snow this year.  I mean I'd put the odds of that at the lower end, but > than most years or the 300 years (irrelevant?) climatological signal.

Think LR. FYI warming LA Nina springs are cold

download (6).png

download (7).png

download (8).png

download (9).png

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pickles are you stoned again. Shouldn't you be skiing. Haven't seen one picture of you out skiing. I mean a single guy on a BB all day. Go go go man your life is too short and you never know when your last ski adventure will happen. 

I was skiing yesterday . Great day at crotched mountain and I’m not really single but ..well ..Your right 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pretty sure most know my position on matters by now ... but whatever.  With this very veracious litany of indicators actually existing and present in reality:

+AO/+NAO/-PNA  ...

ROBUST MJO in phase 3-6 on going and ( probably ) just not as of yet registering a forcing signature (but it may be on the way) ... 

La Nina climo/springs ...

Recent years with these February 'warm bursting' synoptics ... appearing to be independent of ENSO this or polar field that ...

and WTF,  may as well toss in climate change leaning on everything far more undeniably than the consortium cares to admit ...

That looks warm.

I just keep waiting for the other show to fall, and after a relentlessly bloody battle ...finally, a series of model runs offer up a movie staring some kind of turbo ridge from Hades. I have been biding time out of deference to the Euro and GGEM and GFS with these huge resorvoirs of cold lurking across the Canadian shield. They are bleeding enough of that to roughly 45 lat that we're ending up  with this potent ambient hydrostatic gradient ( that looks like March frankly, but even more intense).  

All that is doing, though, is making the gradient so excessive that these S/W are intrinsically embedded in an utterly hostile velocity shear fest.   The Lakes cutter persistence has solid "immovable" fit, too, because that litany of warm cues above may just be like two elephants leaning on each other, and their ass cheek touch along a PHX to DET line.  It's just locked in that persistence by two overwhelmingly titanic forces ... (transient -EPOs are the culprit on the other side).

I would not say it is likely, but there is a something better than a mere non-zero possibility ...we've seen our last snow this year.  I mean I'd put the odds of that at the lower end, but > than most years or the 300 years (irrelevant?) climatological signal.

I’m not talking about the next 10 days. I’m talking beyond that. Obviously the caveat is that it is clown range. 
 

We’re essentially arguing whether we think persistence will break. If it doesn’t, then yeah, no argument that it will stay warm. But persistence is a funny thing…it works great until it doesn’t. That particular type of AO neutral pattern (with PV displaced south a bit) didn’t look warm to me at our latitude. 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was skiing yesterday . Great day at crotched mountain and I’m not really single but ..well ..Your right 

Hey saw some awesome video from Watch Hill of surfing last week. Perfect curls on overheads to double overheads. I was going to go down there that day but we had a family emergency with a great grandkid, he's fine now but scary. Anyways Pete posted pics of Sugarbush yesterday and it looked prime.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not talking about the next 10 days. I’m talking beyond that. Obviously the caveat is that it is clown range. 
 

We’re essentially arguing whether we think persistence will break. If it doesn’t, then yeah, no argument that it will stay warm. But persistence is a funny thing…it works great until it doesn’t. That particular type of AO neutral pattern (with PV displaced south a bit) didn’t look warm to me at our latitude. 

Exactly my thoughts.  Hey could be out in left field and persistence lasts until when wave lengths change into summer mode but not what I see.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly my thoughts.  Hey could be out in left field and persistence lasts until when wave lengths change into summer mode but not what I see.

We all see it. We’ve been seeing colder 11-15 days for weeks on models. But how or will it change? So roll that forward until it’s a week out and we’ll talk. The pacific isn’t changing. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We all see it. We’ve been seeing colder 11-15 days for weeks on models. But how or will it change? So roll that forward until it’s a week out and we’ll talk. The pacific isn’t changing. 

No one expects the Pacific to change. There is a shot that the arctic does.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one expects the Pacific to change. There is a shot that the arctic does.

The east-based NAO trying to form near the end of those runs is probably the thing to watch if there’s going to be a more sustained period of chances. Both GEFS and EPS are starting to show that…starts with Scandi ridging and then tries to start building into Iceland. Whether it goes into a full-blown block beyond that like the weeklies show is the question but that is probably the one path to a more prolonged “exciting” period. 

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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not talking about the next 10 days. I’m talking beyond that. Obviously the caveat is that it is clown range. 
 

We’re essentially arguing whether we think persistence will break. If it doesn’t, then yeah, no argument that it will stay warm. But persistence is a funny thing…it works great until it doesn’t. That particular type of AO neutral pattern (with PV displaced south a bit) didn’t look warm to me at our latitude. 

Yeeeah, the aspects of that list I provided are seasonal, too, not just sub-seasonal scaled indexes.   We're really dealing with ambrosia of multi-dimensional winter killers, frankly.  From the empirical calculated EOFs, to the super synoptic "intangibles" and back. It's like a meteverse coexisting and competing for reality.  Lol. 

Anyway, like I said, I've been biding time.  In deference to having Canada loaded up with cold, that's really more like agreeing on the hybrid nature of the AO.   One has to be careful with any index application, because ( like in this case)  this +AO may be idiosyncratic in the way it is modeled/verifies ( spatial layout ) way out there ... +AO can result a warm Eurasia and N Pac, at the expense of a colder N/A ... Just like some -AOs can establish conveyors elsewhere and put N/A on a warm island.  It's not always evenly distributed...etc.  I mean the correlations are not 1::1

Unfortunately for me, however, I find that to be the weaker signal, and of lower reliance, out of all that avails to the discussion.   Nothing extraordinary in saying that - any signal that far out would be, I know.  

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Just an example and I know it’s a snap shot but I’ve seen this all winter.  Despite colder thicknesses, same look. High to the south and low in the plains. Verbatim probably snow to mix,  but this period is one to watch if we are to try and enter something wintry or just same stuff over and over. Can we try and break the spell and somehow have this favorable or will it trend to a cutter?

 

 

 

F78F815C-1698-4E40-80C7-BEBE5773CB12.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just an example and I know it’s a snap shot but I’ve seen this all winter.  Despite colder thicknesses, same look. High to the south and low in the plains. Verbatim probably snow to mix,  but this period is one to watch if we are to try and enter something wintry or just same stuff over and over. Can we try and break the spell and somehow have this favorable or will it trend to a cutter?

 

 

 

F78F815C-1698-4E40-80C7-BEBE5773CB12.jpeg

There are no changes

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can someone create a futuristic photo of ginxy’s snow train stuck in the mud of Morch

Is there anyone willing to take the opposite side of a wager that Boston will see less snow then they average in March . Please.

The only known photo of the December Winter Train....its whereabouts remain unknown..

Storm | HuttNZ

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