ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GEFS definitely colder earlier. 500 mean on both in weenie range. Last day temp mean on eps vs 5 day temp mean on GEFS . Yes. It’s a pretty cold look there. I’m not arguing prior to that, but prior to that has looked pretty warm for a while (though I’ll say it wouldn’t be surprising if that 2/20-2/22 period goes colder…could be a torch too but a lot of uncertainty there on guidance) Almost all the analogs for that type of look have had a pretty cold stretch rolling forward (1967, 1959, 1990, 1997, 1994, etc)…maybe it doesn’t happen this year, but if we’re trying to stay objective, then I gotta acknowledge the possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GEFS definitely colder earlier. 500 mean on both in weenie range. Last day temp mean on eps vs 5 day temp mean on GEFS . It’s literally more of the same, trough dumping the cold into the west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The post-24th period doesn’t look any different to me. If anything it’s gotten colder on ensemble guidance. I’m not believing it yet but some of the discourse in here sounds like we’re ready to go into March with 2010 or 2012 on our minds. Even the end of the EPS looks ready to cut. Same exact crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 I’m sure at some point it will get colder, but that will come in true 80s fashion with cutters followed by cold lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: It’s literally more of the same, trough dumping the cold into the west Most likely yes. However, GEFS would offer some wintry hope, eps not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even the end of the EPS looks ready to cut. Same exact crap. I dunno…one run and there’s a 50/50 minimum in the height field. It didn’t look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. It’s a pretty cold look there. I’m not arguing prior to that, but prior to that has looked pretty warm for a while (though I’ll say it wouldn’t be surprising if that 2/20-2/22 period goes colder…could be a torch too but a lot of uncertainty there on guidance) Almost all the analogs for that type of look have had a pretty cold stretch rolling forward (1967, 1959, 1990, 1997, 1994, etc)…maybe it doesn’t happen this year, but if we’re trying to stay objective, then I gotta acknowledge the possibility. 11 days left in the period. The pattern breaks for some colder more seasonable weather. I know everyone says oh it's ten days out as usual but there seems to be a good consensus amongst all LR guidance now that this persistent pattern folds out and we shake up the entire hemisphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno…one run and there’s a 50/50 minimum in the height field. It didn’t look warm. I know, just don’t buy it until this is within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno…one run and there’s a 50/50 minimum in the height field. It didn’t look warm. I agree ,Scott is rightfully snake bitten. No one trusts the LR but I have seen enough this morning to have a lot more confidence in saying a pattern change is on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Locked in a cruiser trying to cancel his model subscription. Already did that last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I agree ,Scott is rightfully snake bitten. No one trusts the LR but I have seen enough this morning to have a lot more confidence in saying a pattern change is on its way. I remember that in December. It’s the same pattern. The only way you’ll get me interested is if some of that ridging pushes into Greenland and then maybe that helps. If we see that in a week, maybe I’ll be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Other then that cold snap, birds have been here for a month +. 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yep Seems exactly the same for my 21 years here. My feeders have had the same varieties. They are more active in warmer weather but actually feed more on inclement days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 17 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: The worst winter of our lives rolls on. Now I have to watch the Eagles win another Super Bowl. You still have the Redsox 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I remember that in December. It’s the same pattern. The only way you’ll get me interested is if some of that ridging pushes into Greenland and then maybe that helps. If we see that in a week, maybe I’ll be interested. December was an entirely different situation which 9/10 would have produced. I understand persistence is the way to forecast without any real risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Seems exactly the same for my 21 years here. My feeders have had the same varieties. They are more active in warmer weather but actually feed more on inclement days. Dude I have song birds out like it’s April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly seems like some version of Morch 2012 is coming ! You copy and paste this same post every year. One year you will be right. Today I would say you won't get your March 12 anytime soon. Seems March will be colder than Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I agree ,Scott is rightfully snake bitten. No one trusts the LR but I have seen enough this morning to have a lot more confidence in saying a pattern change is on its way. It’s good to be skeptical of changes this winter. They’ve typically either not happened or they have been short-lived. I just felt the need to comment that the LR did not look warm to me. I can see how it theoretically goes warmer. We still have a SE Ridge. But we actually have above normal heights for once in S CAL/Baja, so the lower heights in the PAC NW don’t bother me as much. There will still be cutters in that pattern too…but with so much cold lurking north, it’s not hard to get a decent snow event either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: December was an entirely different situation which 9/10 would have produced. I understand persistence is the way to forecast without any real risk. You’re missing my point. Pacific continues to reload into the west. Until we see any help in the Atlantic side into Canada continue to be modeled for days on end, that won’t change. I’m sure it will cool off late month into March, but that’s when you’ll start needing some help if we want to make any run on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I know the ACATT people have disappeared, but honestly there isn’t anything to talk about and this isn’t hyperbole. It’s just warm. 42F already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dude I have song birds out like it’s April. Which birds? I hear birds on warm days doesn't mean they were gone and came back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Which birds? I hear birds on warm days doesn't mean they were gone and came back. These aren’t chickadees or cardinals which hang around. I was shocked the other morning when I heard them near dawn. I actually went out and bought some more seed thinking whatever is here, is early so they’ll need some food. Not sure what type though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You’re missing my point. Pacific continues to reload into the west. Until we see any help in the Atlantic side into Canada continue to be modeled for days on end, that won’t change. I’m sure it will cool off late month into March, but that’s when you’ll start needing some help if we want to make any run on winter. PV is pressing south, we have rocked many a March with this exact setup. Of course time isn't on our side but that pattern forecasted is not the same we have had thru Jan and Feb. Teleconnections now are starting to show that as well. We may have issues the first couple of days in the pattern change but it's not our winter persistent pattern IMHO. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: These aren’t chickadees or cardinals which hang around. I was shocked the other morning when I heard them near dawn. I actually went out and bought some more seed thinking whatever is here, is early so they’ll need some food. Not sure what type though. One thing I noticed this year was the lack of Snowy Owls around. They say it's a function of there food supply but there appearance down here seems to coincide with deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You copy and paste this same post every year. One year you will be right. Today I would say you won't get your March 12 anytime soon. Seems March will be colder than Feb. Does not look that way at all . It’s a cool down after a cutter.. that’s all it’s showing and you can see the low heights dipping right back into the SW at the end . Just give up on any cold patterns and snow. Extremely low likelihood of either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: PV is pressing south, we have rocked many a March with this exact setup. Of course time isn't on our side but that pattern forecasted is not the same we have had thru Jan and Feb. Teleconnections now are starting to show that as well. We may have issued the first couple of days in the pattern change but it's not our winter persistent pattern IMHO. We shall see I see the same thing that you see. I also see the same persistence and model fantasy that we’ve seen for weeks. So until whatever changes are modeled two weeks out come into the 7 day period, I have my reservations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: These aren’t chickadees or cardinals which hang around. I was shocked the other morning when I heard them near dawn. I actually went out and bought some more seed thinking whatever is here, is early so they’ll need some food. Not sure what type though. Edibles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 I also don’t see March 2012. That’s not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 You’re missing my point. Pacific continues to reload into the west. Until we see any help in the Atlantic side into Canada continue to be modeled for days on end, that won’t change. I’m sure it will cool off late month into March, but that’s when you’ll start needing some help if we want to make any run on winter. The GEFS ext and EPS show -NAO blocking in March but the GEFS maintains the -PNA/SE ridge. It looks convoluted going into the 1st/2nd week of March, I don’t think the models are even close to coming to a consensus yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s good to be skeptical of changes this winter. They’ve typically either not happened or they have been short-lived. I just felt the need to comment that the LR did not look warm to me. I can see how it theoretically goes warmer. We still have a SE Ridge. But we actually have above normal heights for once in S CAL/Baja, so the lower heights in the PAC NW don’t bother me as much. There will still be cutters in that pattern too…but with so much cold lurking north, it’s not hard to get a decent snow event either. Seems very logical to me. Of course I could be very wrong like many others were in December including those who are pointing fingers all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2023 Share Posted February 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does not look that way at all . It’s a cool down after a cutter.. that’s all it’s showing and you can see the low heights dipping right back into the SW at the end . Just give up on any cold patterns and snow. Extremely low likelihood of either End of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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