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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 I don’t know about that, but at this point why not lol.

Pretty cold at the very end of that EPS run in lalaland, but we’re doing a great job of bridging the gap to getting out of the climo deep winter period. It’d be pretty amazing if I only had 1 cold shot get me below +9° all winter and it just so happened to be record breaking. 

We’re gaining a lot of light now too. I was laying in bed at 6am and thought we had some western moonlight shining in, but the twilight was already creeping in. It goes quickly.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Pretty cold at the very end of that EPS run in lalaland, but we’re doing a great job of bridging the gap to getting out of the climo deep winter period. It’d be pretty amazing if I only had 1 cold shot get me below +9° all winter and it just so happened to be record breaking. 

We’re gaining a lot of light now too. I was laying in bed at 6am and thought we had some western moonlight shining in, but the twilight was already creeping in. It goes quickly.

The mean already has a cutterish look with the MSLP and high to the southeast at that time. 
 

The extra daylight is great. Nice to have that after 6a as you said. I’m so over this winter. Looking forward to more prolonged warmth soon.  

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty cold at the very end of that EPS run in lalaland, but we’re doing a great job of bridging the gap to getting out of the climo deep winter period. It’d be pretty amazing if I only had 1 cold shot get me below +9° all winter and it just so happened to be record breaking. 

We’re gaining a lot of light now too. I was laying in bed at 6am and thought we had some western moonlight shining in, but the twilight was already creeping in. It goes quickly.

Light til 5:15 p.m.

The warmth isn’t all bad at this point. You can get shit done before or after a normal work day now, so long as you have the temperature on your side. And the kids can get outside after school.

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Light til 5:15 p.m.

The warmth isn’t all bad at this point. You can get shit done before or after a normal work day now, so long as you have the temperature on your side. And the kids can get outside after school.

Warm weather is nice for a few days in the winter but not for weeks at a time 

With the coming warmth this week we're going to be seeing leafouts a month ahead of schedule. Allergy season will be heightened and the bugs will be worse than ever. 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just picture Ray and Will riding down the street , driving 15 in a 35 zone , arms on window sills, warm and sunny day , birds flying in and out of the windows heads shaking left to right , too and fro singing to this in Morch. 

I always pictured Ray in this video. Riding on a Vespa down Hampton Beach and just replace Yankees with RedSox hat.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know the ACATT people have disappeared, but honestly there isn’t anything to talk about and this isn’t hyperbole. It’s just warm.  

The post-24th period doesn’t look any different to me. If anything it’s gotten colder on ensemble guidance. I’m not believing it yet but some of the discourse in here sounds like we’re ready to go into March with 2010 or 2012 on our minds. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Euro op is 60-65 again d9 and 10 after a brief 1 day cool down on Saturday. :lol:

 It's also greater SD in the 850 mb level, too ( for those days...) than previous runs.

One aspect of Wed/Thur this week re the Euro ( talking to the general audience), it's improved its 2-meter temperature outlook ~ 2 F per cycle going back two days.  Perhaps not linear increase, but on average...  

Synoptically, Wednesday enters contention for 'nape appeal' at this rate, too.  It's got a deep layer WSW flow already established, with 850s to +5 by 21z the afternoon.   There's likely to be gunk skies around because there's a dying Lakes cutter that's "denting" the field with modest cyclonic curvature ... as it coughs by NW. But if the clouds end up lower in coverage and the winds are light, both possibilities ..., we'll be near 60 despite the 54 MOS/machine and or 2-meter coverage.

Thursday depends on sun again...  But, the RH at standard metric sigmas are all < 55% ( 700, 500, 300 mbs), so that's an indication there's plenty of that mid day.  This is true on the GFS, too.   The Euro has also been elevating the 850s on that day, now nicking +10 C by 21 z. Again with deep layer WSW ...by then, very well mixed and likely a taller BL.   That's a high temperature of 72 ... I don't believe the 2-meters are representative of a well mixed ( or enough) in any model on Wed or Thu afternoons.    And the MEX is definitely too cool at this time of year and range.  

Given the very warm looking telecon spread as having not really yet fully realized in the deterministic solution sets as of late, ...the subtext to all this is that the correction vector is warmer actually.   I'm a just tedious enough about this weather fascination to test these early warm up days, so tfwiw -

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The post-24th period doesn’t look any different to me. If anything it’s gotten colder on ensemble guidance. I’m not believing it yet but some of the discourse in here sounds like we’re ready to go into March with 2010 or 2012 on our minds. 

GEFS definitely colder earlier. 500 mean on both in weenie range. Last day temp mean on eps vs 5 day temp mean on GEFS . 

6232F060-9509-41DD-936C-BE0E57F0D72D.png

 

C403C88F-77CC-452D-A8F2-78B2BEB4D6BF.png

FBEE5E35-9900-4232-8380-82138B8C1B96.png

ADA35CB6-C6D5-40C1-B0D6-5AAFA1200293.png

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