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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. The objective side of me thinks it’s hilarious when all of us are like “I’m done with snow so let’s torch it!” or “this season has shown its cards, it won’t snow again in any meaningful amounts”as if we have any control whatsoever or as if we have any idea what it’s going to be doing 3 weeks from now. Sure, we speculate (that’s what these forums are for), but I’ve heard it so many times over the years on here. I’m ready to punt winter too but I know it doesn’t care what I think. Lol. 
 

If models are showing a 8-10” run-of-the-mill warning SWFE for Feb 26th or Mar 2nd or whatever inside of 5 days, 90% of the snow weenies will be all over it like flies on shit. Lots of people will “check back in” after “checking out” on winter. I find it amusing from a Tip-psychological aspect. 

Right, no control over it so going wildly one way or another seems like an effort in futility (pun?).

Whatever helps folks make peace with it though for sure. There will be a 150 page thread if even 3-6” shows up.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Right, no control over it so going wildly one way or another seems like an effort in futility (pun?).

Whatever helps folks make peace with it though for sure. There will be a 150 page thread if even 3-6” shows up.

Yep.
 

And to respond to pickles, I’m not talking about posts like Scott where he’s like “I’m not looking at the model guidance like I normally do”….I’d agree with that. I’m not looking at stuff that closely because I know the next 10 days are dogshit so I just take quick glances each cycle….but we all will spring to life the instant an event appears in non-clown range. 
 

And yes, one 6-10” event won’t change what this winter really is. A ratter. But that’s not what I was talking about anyway. We’d need something pretty special from 2/25 through end of March to bring this out of ratter territory. Like a 1993 ending or 2001 or 1956 or something similar. 
 

I just find some of the discourse really amusing about futility and pretending knowing what will happen 3+ weeks from now. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there a point where you’ll hope for record snowless year or would you prefer to get a Napril 8” snowfall to not live thru futility? When if ever, would just say F it.. let’s root against snow ?

We’ve heard Will/ORH say it before, ha.

Why root against it? To get another 38-degree rainstorm over a 32F paste job?

Can see rooting against it if the options are 65F and sunny vs a sloppy 3”… but often rooting against snow just leads to a cold rain in a system. 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve heard Will/ORH say it before, ha.

Why root against it? To get another 38-degree rainstorm over a 32F paste job?

Can see rooting against it if the options are 65F and sunny vs a sloppy 3”… but often rooting against snow just leads to a cold rain in a system. 

If ORH and BDL and BOS are snowless thru Morch (which looks likely based on modeling and pattern recognition/ persistence) I think almost everyone would say f it.. let’s root for futility infamy. Notice he chose not to answer the  question.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep.
 

And to respond to pickles, I’m not talking about posts like Scott where he’s like “I’m not looking at the model guidance like I normally do”….I’d agree with that. I’m not looking at stuff that closely because I know the next 10 days are dogshit so I just take quick glances each cycle….but we all will spring to life the instant an event appears in non-clown range. 
 

And yes, one 6-10” event won’t change what this winter really is. A ratter. But that’s not what I was talking about anyway. We’d need something pretty special from 2/25 through end of March to bring this out of ratter territory. Like a 1993 ending or 2001 or 1956 or something similar. 
 

I just find some of the discourse really amusing about futility and pretending knowing what will happen 3+ weeks from now. 

That’s the thing. We don’t claim it’s over, but the next 2 weeks don’t look conducive. 

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well … that 18Z GFS was certainly no fun for winter enthusiasts. 

Seriously that aside tho, I’m starting have doubts in anything at all taking place in that regard the rest of the way. 

I'm wondering what the record is for number of cutters in a winter?  We must be getting close.       B)

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well … that 18Z GFS was certainly no fun for winter enthusiasts. 

Seriously that aside tho, I’m starting have doubts in anything at all taking place in that regard the rest of the way. 

Neither was the 0z GFS.  Just cutter after cutter after cutter.

I'm thinking of running the snowblower out of gas after having started it up in December.  No sense having stale gas in it that will prevent starting when I really need it.  A blizzard will probably show up on the next run after I do that.  :lol:

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The SSWE prospects aren’t looking this great. This is a really detailed tweet chain. He explains how the -AAM and +QBO are destructively interfering with and slowing the downwelling of this event into the troposphere. He opines that it may take until the 2nd week of March to see the tropospheric effects finally take shape. This is also a displacement event rather than a split, further complicating things. Good read:

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The SSWE prospects aren’t looking this great. This is a really detailed tweet chain. He explains how the -AAM and +QBO are destructively interfering with and slowing the downwelling of this event into the troposphere. He opines that it may take until the 2nd week of March to see the tropospheric effects finally take shape. This is also a displacement event rather than a split, further complicating things. Good read:

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