February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

That was perhaps the greatest snowstorm and Arctic outbreak in the countries history. Every single Gulf state had heavy snow.

Tallahassee reached -2, FL's coldest on record.  Cape May had 34".  For several days in Feb 2021 it looked like Mt. Arlington was going to eclipse that total but I think that QC showed some measurement irregularities.  In a way I was glad, as it maintains the delicious irony of the state's least snowy locale having had the greatest snowfall.

Back to GTs and NNE, PSM is about 140 driving miles from here, probably not much different as from Tolland but farther from the folks in the northern Greens.  For an NNE-only (due only to distance from SNE) locale, maybe North Conway?  

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That would be 6th or 7th I think. 

I remember a post you had in latter part of January that said if Feb was snowless which you didn’t think it would be ,that you would seriously consider all time snowless winter for BDL, ORH, BOS. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

What am I missing. This looks a lot like persistence. Gradient oriented with climo over northeast. Very Workable for interior NNE. Everyone else fighting warm sectors and ptype issues.

The temps verbatim on that are very cold. And it looks like it would continue to push east. But it’s weenie range so need to hold or better that look the next 4-5 days to really consider it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is a more valid concern than suppression should a neg NAO block develop in tandem with the persistent RNA pattern is deconstructive interference from a shearing flow, but cross that bridge...

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember a post you had in latter part of January that said if Feb was snowless which you didn’t think it would be ,that you would seriously consider all time snowless winter for BDL, ORH, BOS. 

Yes. It would at least be a realistic scenario if we went the rest of the month snowless. It would still be unlikely though…BOS needs like 1.2 inches to ruin futility. ORH needs 3.7”. 
 

BDL would be a little more interesting since they would need 5.4”. 
 

But we’re not at the end of February yet. Something could easily pop in the final week we can’t see yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. It would at least be a realistic scenario if we went the rest of the month snowless. It would still be unlikely though…BOS needs like 1.2 inches to ruin futility. ORH needs 3.7”. 
 

BDL would be a little more interesting since they would need 5.4”. 
 

But we’re not at the end of February yet. Something could easily pop in the final week we can’t see yet. 

I'm watching that 20-23 window for some sort of phase change event.

[snowman19]

RNA/-NAO is not a mid atl pattern.  Not saying they won't see some snow, but it's not the type of pattern in which I generally fear suppression. 

Yea, RNA is definitely not a mid-Atlantic snow pattern. The thing I’m laughing at is the March, 2018 “analog” getting thrown around twitter. Total wishcast. Besides this SSW being nothing at all like that event. If anyone actually believes we are going to see that kind of anomalous arctic and west-based NAO blocking all month, they are delusional lol

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, RNA is definitely not a mid-Atlantic snow pattern. The thing I’m laughing at is the March, 2018 “analog” getting thrown around twitter. Total wishcast. Besides this SSW being nothing at all like that event. If anyone actually believes we are going to see that kind of anomalous arctic and west-based NAO blocking all month, they are delusional lol

I don't know of anyone that is actually thinking that besides 15 year olds on twitter

I would be quite surprised if we didn't see a legit -NAO spell at some point in early-mid March, though

[CoastalWx]

The maps I see from the EPS all show warming and some displacement from 10-50mb but nothing we don’t see a dozen times in winter. But continue to spank it to a reversal at 1mb. Maybe the international space station can confirm. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The maps I see from the EPS all show warming and some displacement from 10-50mb but nothing we don’t see a dozen times in winter. But continue to spank it to a reversal at 1mb. Maybe the international space station can confirm. 

Wait for the balloons to reverse back to china?

[CoastalWx]

Here’s 50mb at hr 360. The good news is that it’s not a concentric vortex near the pole. It’s got some stretching going on, but again we see that many times in winter. And that’s 2/26. I’d want to see it much more disturbed or displaced by that point. 
 

 

[dendrite]

Roof pack cryin for its mama today with the full sun and mid 30s temps.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Wait for the balloons to reverse back to china?

I want to get about 5 dozen balloons from a party store and release them so I can see some F-16s.

[ORH_wxman]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm watching that 20-23 window for some sort of phase change event.

Yeah and even in the few days after that there is a ton of cold lurking north. It only takes a scooter streak timed well and a shortwave coming out of the Midwest for a random high end advisory or warning-level SWFE….yeah it’s been like pulling teeth this winter for that to happen, but we shouldn’t forget that they happen almost every winter…even shitty ones frequently have an event like that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, RNA is definitely not a mid-Atlantic snow pattern. The thing I’m laughing at is the March, 2018 “analog” getting thrown around twitter. Total wishcast. Besides this SSW being nothing at all like that event. If anyone actually believes we are going to see that kind of anomalous arctic and west-based NAO blocking all month, they are delusional lol

I think it's possible, but unlikely...best case scenario. March '18 was a great example of a productive RNA/NAO pattern.

[snowman19]

I don't know of anyone that is actually thinking that besides 15 year olds on twitter
I would be quite surprised if we didn't see a legit -NAO spell at some point in early-mid March, though

Joe Bastardi and Mark Margavage just to name 2 right off the bat

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Joe Bastardi and Mark Margavage just to name 2 right off the bat

JB does that for clicks....the other dude is a hack.

[snowman19]

I think it's possible, but unlikely...best case scenario. March '18 was a great example of a productive RNA/NAO pattern.

A very productive RNA yes. It was a textbook SSWE (bottom-up wave driven) that forced a -AO and a Scandinavian block that retrograded to a west based Greenland/Baffin Island -NAO block, it also popped a ridge bridge -EPO that delivered the cross-polar arctic flow. You had the parade of shortwaves from the RNA and they blew up over the super warm SSTs off the east coast with the very slowed, backed up roadblock flow from the strong -NAO and 50/50 lows that kept re-establishing

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A very productive RNA yes. It was a textbook SSWE (bottom-up wave driven) that forced a -AO and a Scandinavian block that retrograded to a west based Greenland/Baffin Island -NAO block, it also popped a ridge bridge -EPO that delivered the cross-polar arctic flow. You had the parade of shortwaves from the RNA and they blew up over the super warm SSTs off the east coast with the very slowed, backed up roadblock flow from the strong -NAO and 50/50 lows that kept re-establishing

I don't expect this to be as consistently cold.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't expect this to be as consistently cold.

I am hopeful I can add a little to my season total at the very least.

Currently I am at 1.5 for the year.

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I was wrong about Atlanta. Thanks for remembering. Right about this crap staying south of northeast though.

You have been wrong the whole season though. So cheers. 

 

Really? I think I only made a forecast in December when I thought the historical block would produce.  I busted your balls about Atlanta as a rebuttal to your busting mine because I hit 60 not 53⁰. You have been on the offensive attacking every Met on here. For an engineer not a Meteorologist by trade you have done well with persistence let's see how fucking well you do when this pattern breaks . By the way Pope hope I don't get thrown in purgatory but GFY

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really? I think I only made a forecast in December when I thought the historical block would produce.  I busted your balls about Atlanta as a rebuttal to your busting mine because I hit 60 not 53⁰. You have been on the offensive attacking every Met on here. For an engineer not a Meteorologist by trade you have done well with persistence let's see how fucking well you do when this pattern breaks . By the way Pope hope I don't get thrown in purgatory but GFY

Pope is easily triggered these days. They don’t forgive like they used to. 

[dryslot]

Black smoke just rolling out of the chimney.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Beer 

Edibles 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh... certainly not around day 10 of that Euro run.  

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really? I think I only made a forecast in December when I thought the historical block would produce.  I busted your balls about Atlanta as a rebuttal to your busting mine because I hit 60 not 53⁰. You have been on the offensive attacking every Met on here. For an engineer not a Meteorologist by trade you have done well with persistence let's see how fucking well you do when this pattern breaks . By the way Pope hope I don't get thrown in purgatory but GFY

The papacy is reeling!

[kdxken]

6 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thursday is my 6th and final school ski club day.  We’ve have rain on 4 of the previous 5 and I postponed one due to rain.  So 5 or 6 Thursdays it has rained and now a torch 60s day

What fun

What do you expect in Kentucky?

 

"

Interesting stat from NWS...if you look at the average highs and low in Boston since Jan 1, and compare them against the "normals" for other big cities...the closest match would be Louisville, Kentucky! So, you could say, our weather since Jan 1 is what is normal for Louisville!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What do you expect in Kentucky?

 

"

Interesting stat from NWS...if you look at the average highs and low in Boston since Jan 1, and compare them against the "normals" for other big cities...the closest match would be Louisville, Kentucky! So, you could say, our weather since Jan 1 is what is normal for Louisville!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bourbon

[HoarfrostHubb]

24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What do you expect in Kentucky?

 

"

Interesting stat from NWS...if you look at the average highs and low in Boston since Jan 1, and compare them against the "normals" for other big cities...the closest match would be Louisville, Kentucky! So, you could say, our weather since Jan 1 is what is normal for Louisville!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. Saw that tweet earlier today.      The last two years my students have not had good conditions.   There is still plenty of “snow” but it is compacted manmade stuff