STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 18z gfs has .28 precip for a 16 day total thru feb 10. If nothing else can be gleaned from the long range OP it seems less active Is a potential issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 52 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like CBN so while I haven’t had that one in the pic specifically, you can’t go wrong. CBN has more powerful relaxing properties than CBD, if that’s what you’re looking for. I got a jar of gummies a guest left behind at a property. They have cbd, cbn, and something called delta-8. It says 10mg of each per gummie. I took one before bed a few nights ago. Learned that taking a fully gummy was way too strong. I felt like instead of my body being on top of the bed, I sunk through the the mattress. Weird weird weird. Now I cut them in half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 18z gfs has .28 precip for a 16 day total thru feb 10. If nothing else can be gleaned from the long range OP it seems less active Is a potential issue says hi... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 18z gfs has .28 precip for a 16 day total thru feb 10. If nothing else can be gleaned from the long range OP it seems less active Is a potential issue With the GFS showing Montreal hitting an all-time low of -40F next Friday, it's no surprise we will be less active with that cold pushing down, even if it turns out to be fleeting. Montreal's all-time low is -29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Do we think that or hope that . I’ll bet you the opposite side of that Both. It’s hard to get through a season without one and we have the most optimal conditions during that window it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 40 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: With the GFS showing Montreal hitting an all-time low of -40F next Friday, it's no surprise we will be less active with that cold pushing down, even if it turns out to be fleeting. Montreal's all-time low is -29F. Sell -40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 hours ago, weathafella said: Sell -40. Would be cool to see just because it is the point where C and F are the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 We suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like CBN so while I haven’t had that one in the pic specifically, you can’t go wrong. CBN has more powerful relaxing properties than CBD, if that’s what you’re looking for. Cheebas seem to work well for me. Enjoy a 2:1 THC : CBN ratio in our original chocolate taffy chews, enhanced by approximately 2mg of melatonin. Each package comes with twenty individual pieces, dosed with 5mg of THC and 2.5mg of CBN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 ...Cannabis talk...All time low temps in Montreal talk...Stein talk. The sh*t pattern has gotten to most of us. It's time to drink some calming tea and embrace the eternal suck, and look forward to the future of spring, and then summer, and the wonder that is high humidity, and red flag talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 hours ago, kdxken said: Any good? Fan of Bedtime Betties but have recently been doing the Cheebas They're good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Gotta admit, this may very well be a rat. I'm starting to lean that way more with each passing week. Although the mean composite was decent, I had years like 2001 and 1998 double weighted due to how good of a match they were to 2022. 2011 was in there, but not double weighted.... May need to reevaluate how I interpret those sensible weather analogs...was my first time using it, so I just went with the mean composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 hours ago, weathafella said: The thing is, of all the winters that finished strongly, show me a total ratter throughout all of January. 2018 had a torchy latter part of February but deep cold and some good snow in December and early January. I can’t bring up any outside of 2006-07 which was a nino. Do you mean just in terms of snowfall? The December pattern was pretty good this year.....we just whiffed. That's what makes it tricky....It wasn't like 12/98, 12/99, 12/01 or 12/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 GEM has a system 2/1 and EURO 2/5.....at this point, don't expect anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We suppressed Yes, That was what i thought was going to happen when we end up with cold over the top of us, Glad we had these last 3 snow storms up here, But now we do need some cold, Been pretty much non exsistant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, That was what i thought was going to happen when we end up with cold over the top of us, Glad we had these last 3 snow storms up here, But now we do need some cold, Been pretty much non exsistant. See if modeling is overplaying the cold press but as of right now it's looking MEH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Looks like raindance has the best outlook IMO....had like +5 along the east coast and explicitly mentioned that storms in the east would lack cold air. Kind of right for the wrong reason with respect to December, though, as he had a +AO/NAO. I think we can put to rest that silly accustion about me copying his outlooks, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 suppression depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like raindance has the best outlook IMO....had like +5 along the east coast and explicitly mentioned that storms in the east would lack cold air. Kind of right for the wrong reason with respect to December, though, as he had a +AO/NAO. I think we can put to rest that silly accustion about me copying his outlooks, though. His forecast was pretty spot on actually but like you said for the wrong reasons. At least things can only go up from here next winter. So far it's in the top 3 for futility for me (lack of snow + warmth) If I don't get any snow this winter and given how warm Feb will turn it'll easily be #1 in futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 EPS is still kind of likes 2/1 despite the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: His forecast was pretty spot on actually but like you said for the wrong reasons. At least things can only go up from here next winter. So far it's in the top 3 for futility for me (lack of snow + warmth) If we don't get any snow this winter and given how warm Feb will turn it'll easily be #1 in futility. His is kind of like my first outlook in 2014-2015....I nailed it sensible weatherwise, but missed the polar fields. This is with respect to the season to date and especially December. The aggregate DM period very well may finish +AO/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I'm fine with ratting the rest of the way...just increases confidence in a nice year, next season. No way am I going 6 consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, expecially in a warm ENSO following a triple dip cold. I would bet anyone a large sum of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would bet anyone a large sum of money. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hmmm Could be easy money… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Could be easy money… From this far out...To me it’s a coin toss every year to beat climo (aside from knowing significant enso factors are in play ) . I would just need better than what I see as 50:50 odds bc it’s not worth wagering just for the sake of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Yeah I don't see how having a bad season makes the next year more likely to be good. To me, that's like saying because I got 8 heads in a row, the next coin flip has a better shot at being tails....nope, the next coin toss is 50/50. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Yeah so...the problem is the compression and the hurried velocities of the flow during the week to 10 days. The models don't typically perform very well when the flow is high velocity, because the flow is too integrated. Looser more open flows with greater hydrostatic gradients - that's where organized storms are handled better. But when the flow is highly integrated from larger to small scales... small wobbles in run-to-run placement of larger features directly causes large constructive or destructive interference... It can mean total disappearance and then reappearance across successive model runs. That's why one run has the 1s...the next run doesn't, but focuses on the 3rd... then scrubs both in lieu of the 25th on the next... then it's back to the 23rd, sans the other two... and that's really what these last several model cycles are doing. The question is naturally which, if any, are real? The 00z GGEM liked the 1st for a flat fast progressive wave. That structure of that system is actually not a bad solution in this hurried trajectory and tendency for compression. In its solution, said compression is just relaxed enough to allow the wave to squeeze through with enough conserved mechanics to get a light to moderate event through the region. The other guidance destructively interfere to oblivion. The 23-25th system is still there but 00z/06z GFS can't get the flow to 'kink' N of the compression axis in the TV-MA region so we stay boring cold and dry. Euro seems to have even less 1st ... but is suggestive toward the 5th-7th again. The end of the Euro run enters a new era of relaxing flow as the elephant N/stream lifts into the maritime region of Canada... but that's of course at the horizon of the guidance so cannot really be used deterministically - it's nice eye candy though lol. Looking ahead... the flow will likely to relax... but, I'm also concerned that as it does, we'll see a pretty profound correction in the total flow structure ... visible in guidance by then, that is ... unfriendly to winter enthusiasts. There's valid reasons to assess that as having more probability to occur than a cold reload at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is still kind of likes 2/1 despite the OP run. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Good luck Thanks man....this is the type of top analysis we strive for on the forum. 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Good luck Thought provoking analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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