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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, jbenedet said:

Last year the NAO tanked on March 15th and stayed negative through just about all of April.

It didn't even materialize in snowfall. It just made for shit weather.

I really, really hope that does not happen. But that would be close to 3 year persistence...

Totally possible...

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did NNE score 

I honestly don't remember. But I don't recall any notable snowfalls imby. Just N to slightly BN and lots of rain in late March and most of April. We had big -NAO in mid to late March which meant confluence overhead and cold dews and cold nights.

Strangely we also had snow threats in mid april past few years but they turned out to be non-events; just really cold vs climo.

Remember this bc of how it screwed my garden planning and pushed it back closer to May.

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Yea, skepticism is warranted in relation to the weeklies at this juncture, but we can both agree that that is a viable outcome considering the evolution of the polar stratosphere. Will reality be more tempered? Very possible if not likely.

Is this event considered a top down or bottom up (wave forced) SSW? I remember reading an article years ago that went into detail about that. There are big differences in how those 2 types of SSWEs effect the troposphere. I’m trying to find the article again. Not sure what the strato experts are considering this one to be
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25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


I guess it may ride on the stratosphere. There’s some serious doubts about what this SSWE is actually going to do for us. There as doubts as to whether it actually downwells and couples with the troposphere, or, if it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? This is a good point:

Cold remains in Siberia where it’s been all winter, this SSW is more of the same we have heard all winter and the same people are falling for it yet again

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

the way we're rolling, we'll be melted out within 2wks

I don't doubt it. Feb vacation week is coming up in 2 weeks, and just like xmas vacation week you can count on terrible skiing and snow conditions. At this point you almost hope for sun and runs at 50s that week or else it will be pretty miserable for the folks on vacation. Just seems like it's impossible to get a low underneath us this winter. With that said, we realistically have 8 more weeks of threat watching here and I expect a few more events to produce but we'll struggle to reach climo unless we get another stretch like in Jan. 

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2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I don't doubt it. Feb vacation week is coming up in 2 weeks, and just like xmas vacation week you can count on terrible skiing and snow conditions. At this point you almost hope for sun and runs at 50s that week or else it will be pretty miserable for the folks on vacation. Just seems like it's impossible to get a low underneath us this winter. With that said, we realistically have 8 more weeks of threat watching here and I expect a few more events to produce but we'll struggle to reach climo unless we get another stretch like in Jan. 

this winter blows a bag of **cks. I understand SNE's frustration, but it's been pretty crappy in our area. I'd grade it a D so far. We were fortunate to get 30" last month in a short time period, but winter this season looks like it'll amount to 4-6wks depending on how you define it.

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13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not here.  Both March and April had AN temps, and the 2-month total of 10.2" was less than half of the 21.3" average.  CAR did better, with Mar/Apr total of 30.3" compared to the 28.9" average.

Ya the crown up to Gaspe cleaned up in that stretch last year. Gaspe was absolutely buried. Not that different from the tenor of this season (or 21' or 20' for that matter, although 20' did produce a nice event last week of March after an early torch) either. Rangeley was melted even worse by late March in 21'. 

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

this winter blows a bag of **cks. I understand SNE's frustration, but it's been pretty crappy in our area. I'd grade it a D so far. We were fortunate to get 30" last month in a short time period, but winter this season looks like it'll amount to 4-6wks depending on how you define it.

I mean I still have over 12" on the ground, more in shady spots. It's hard for me to give it a D when we're well on our way to snowfall climo, but if this pattern holds through first week of March then I'll be downgrading quickly. This isn't 15-16 snowfall wise, but temp wise it's not far behind. I'm having a hard time buying a late season flip to a colder pattern but could imagine another stretch like we had in Jan. This season is good reminder for me why I don't own snowmobiles, just rent when the mood/season strikes.  

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2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

I mean I still have over 12" on the ground, more in shady spots. It's hard for me to give it a D when we're well on our way to snowfall climo, but if this pattern holds through first week of March then I'll be downgrading quickly. This isn't 15-16 snowfall wise, but temp wise it's not far behind. I'm having a hard time buying a late season flip to a colder pattern but could imagine another stretch like we had in Jan. This season is good reminder for me why I don't own snowmobiles, just rent when the mood/season strikes.  

Was thinking of riding that way tomorrow , but not sure what today's damage will do. Might be better off going to Andover if my friend gets his sled fixed.

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12 minutes ago, SkiMagicVT said:

Hi all, I am a long time lurker, respect all of the insight on here tremendously. Curious what everyone is thinking about next weekend’s storm? Any chance S. VT sees snow out of that or DOA in cutter city? Thanks.

That system will cut, nothing there to stop it. Best you can hope for is to cut even further west and avoid the big precip but even that is looking unlikely. Cold modeled behind it, that weekend could be one of the worst ski weekends of the year. Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's what I'm seeing.  

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

Was thinking of riding that way tomorrow , but not sure what today's damage will do. Might be better off going to Andover if my friend gets his sled fixed.

I've seen some pretty gnarly photos of water bars on local trails. There will be folks riding no doubt but for the sake of your sled go further north. 

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