STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: If I pick up 15” more, I’m at 19”, that’s a rat here. Those that are in N. Mass that would take you out of Rat territory yes. But anything south of that, 15” more is still a rat. Absolutely, S of Pike has been absolutely tortured this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, jbenedet said: Last year the NAO tanked on March 15th and stayed negative through just about all of April. It didn't even materialize in snowfall. It just made for shit weather. I really, really hope that does not happen. But that would be close to 3 year persistence... Totally possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Last year the NAO tanked on March 15th and stayed negative through just about all of April. It didn't even materialize in snowfall. It just made for shit weather. I really, really hope that does not happen. But that would be close to 3 year persistence... Did NNE score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did NNE score I honestly don't remember. But I don't recall any notable snowfalls imby. Just N to slightly BN and lots of rain in late March and most of April. We had big -NAO in mid to late March which meant confluence overhead and cold dews and cold nights. Strangely we also had snow threats in mid april past few years but they turned out to be non-events; just really cold vs climo. Remember this bc of how it screwed my garden planning and pushed it back closer to May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Yea, skepticism is warranted in relation to the weeklies at this juncture, but we can both agree that that is a viable outcome considering the evolution of the polar stratosphere. Will reality be more tempered? Very possible if not likely.Is this event considered a top down or bottom up (wave forced) SSW? I remember reading an article years ago that went into detail about that. There are big differences in how those 2 types of SSWEs effect the troposphere. I’m trying to find the article again. Not sure what the strato experts are considering this one to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I guess it may ride on the stratosphere. There’s some serious doubts about what this SSWE is actually going to do for us. There as doubts as to whether it actually downwells and couples with the troposphere, or, if it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? This is a good point: Cold remains in Siberia where it’s been all winter, this SSW is more of the same we have heard all winter and the same people are falling for it yet again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Ray probably enjoys this winter more than last year because he has more snow than many of us in SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did NNE score We were totally melted out by third week in March. As it goes sometimes, the last week of March and first of April produced for elevated NNE (along with some rain) but it was toast here after March 6th or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: We were totally melted out by third week in March. As it goes sometimes, the last week of March and first of April produced for elevated NNE (along with some rain) but it was toast here after March 6th or so. the way we're rolling, we'll be melted out within 2wks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Did NNE score Not here. Both March and April had AN temps, and the 2-month total of 10.2" was less than half of the 21.3" average. CAR did better, with Mar/Apr total of 30.3" compared to the 28.9" average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: the way we're rolling, we'll be melted out within 2wks I don't doubt it. Feb vacation week is coming up in 2 weeks, and just like xmas vacation week you can count on terrible skiing and snow conditions. At this point you almost hope for sun and runs at 50s that week or else it will be pretty miserable for the folks on vacation. Just seems like it's impossible to get a low underneath us this winter. With that said, we realistically have 8 more weeks of threat watching here and I expect a few more events to produce but we'll struggle to reach climo unless we get another stretch like in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiMagicVT Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Hi all, I am a long time lurker, respect all of the insight on here tremendously. Curious what everyone is thinking about next weekend’s storm? Any chance S. VT sees snow out of that or DOA in cutter city? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 On 2/8/2023 at 2:24 PM, Ginx snewx said: 53 is my winter DSD. Where's my 70 We knew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: I don't doubt it. Feb vacation week is coming up in 2 weeks, and just like xmas vacation week you can count on terrible skiing and snow conditions. At this point you almost hope for sun and runs at 50s that week or else it will be pretty miserable for the folks on vacation. Just seems like it's impossible to get a low underneath us this winter. With that said, we realistically have 8 more weeks of threat watching here and I expect a few more events to produce but we'll struggle to reach climo unless we get another stretch like in Jan. this winter blows a bag of **cks. I understand SNE's frustration, but it's been pretty crappy in our area. I'd grade it a D so far. We were fortunate to get 30" last month in a short time period, but winter this season looks like it'll amount to 4-6wks depending on how you define it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, tamarack said: Not here. Both March and April had AN temps, and the 2-month total of 10.2" was less than half of the 21.3" average. CAR did better, with Mar/Apr total of 30.3" compared to the 28.9" average. Ya the crown up to Gaspe cleaned up in that stretch last year. Gaspe was absolutely buried. Not that different from the tenor of this season (or 21' or 20' for that matter, although 20' did produce a nice event last week of March after an early torch) either. Rangeley was melted even worse by late March in 21'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 What a torch today. 65F high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: this winter blows a bag of **cks. I understand SNE's frustration, but it's been pretty crappy in our area. I'd grade it a D so far. We were fortunate to get 30" last month in a short time period, but winter this season looks like it'll amount to 4-6wks depending on how you define it. I mean I still have over 12" on the ground, more in shady spots. It's hard for me to give it a D when we're well on our way to snowfall climo, but if this pattern holds through first week of March then I'll be downgrading quickly. This isn't 15-16 snowfall wise, but temp wise it's not far behind. I'm having a hard time buying a late season flip to a colder pattern but could imagine another stretch like we had in Jan. This season is good reminder for me why I don't own snowmobiles, just rent when the mood/season strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 God, this absolutely sucks. I want nothing to do with this on 2/10. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Driving to Florida next Thursday for 8 days maybe take a detour for some severe weather in the south? Already in the day 7 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, TalcottWx said: God, this absolutely sucks. I want nothing to do with this on 2/10. Love it. Embrace it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: I mean I still have over 12" on the ground, more in shady spots. It's hard for me to give it a D when we're well on our way to snowfall climo, but if this pattern holds through first week of March then I'll be downgrading quickly. This isn't 15-16 snowfall wise, but temp wise it's not far behind. I'm having a hard time buying a late season flip to a colder pattern but could imagine another stretch like we had in Jan. This season is good reminder for me why I don't own snowmobiles, just rent when the mood/season strikes. Was thinking of riding that way tomorrow , but not sure what today's damage will do. Might be better off going to Andover if my friend gets his sled fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 46°…that may do it. Wind is roaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Love it. Embrace it. Fucking love this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, SkiMagicVT said: Hi all, I am a long time lurker, respect all of the insight on here tremendously. Curious what everyone is thinking about next weekend’s storm? Any chance S. VT sees snow out of that or DOA in cutter city? Thanks. That system will cut, nothing there to stop it. Best you can hope for is to cut even further west and avoid the big precip but even that is looking unlikely. Cold modeled behind it, that weekend could be one of the worst ski weekends of the year. Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Up to 50 here pack is taking a beating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Was thinking of riding that way tomorrow , but not sure what today's damage will do. Might be better off going to Andover if my friend gets his sled fixed. I've seen some pretty gnarly photos of water bars on local trails. There will be folks riding no doubt but for the sake of your sled go further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, NW_of_GYX said: I've seen some pretty gnarly photos of water bars on local trails. There will be folks riding no doubt but for the sake of your sled go further north. Looks pretty warm in jackman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Love it. Embrace it. I already wear shorts every day no matter what the temperature is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 49.8F will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, TalcottWx said: I already wear shorts every day no matter what the temperature is We all want snow, but a sunny day in the low 60s?? Yeah sign me up if I can't get snow. 7 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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