TheMainer Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Pretty dismal on this tenth of February, in the year of our lord 2023. Most of interior Maine and NH is sittin' pretty sweet though. 59F and mostly sunny. The station a mile or so to my east at 0ft just popped to 59 from 39 about an hour ago. Interesting snow hole over Lac St Jean in Quebec, been riding there a few times and it's always a bit skinny compared to all other directions from there. We ended up with 5 inches, compacting in the warmth (~33.8F), but should give us another good weekend of snowmobiling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks Ray Happy birthday old man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Happy birthday @Ginx snewx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Figure out when we mixed out in the village lol. It was 32F when I woke up this morning and seemed like the inversion was trying to hold. Then it got windy and went up 10 degrees in minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Pure opinion influenced by objective residue ... Part of my problem with the popularity/headlining wrt to the 'record breaking' warmth today ...and just the attention that was/is given to it, is my own attitude - admittedly. We've been heat blasted to between 75 and 82 F at least three times in the last five years, during Februaries. So by comparison, today just looks and feels - to me - like more of the same shit we've been dealt all winter - not necessarily more worthy of the coverage. Ha...you know - it seems there are two types of wave mechanics to this weather engagement: those that occur in the atmosphere; those that ripple through crowed noise. Sometimes those are in phase... As far as the near miss coastal... Probably, that is what it will be imho. We'll see. But the NAM has that NW bias issue over the west Atlantic. It tends to turn polarward too aggressively. I've been hammering this for years - I haven't seen any evidence that it's been corrected. This is a situation that is perfect for that model to dabble in that bias - an unaffiliated ( with the westerlies) coughing tumbler left to move through the field from something like beta drift almost entirely... ? It may sprinkle/light rain/inconsequential ping for an hour or two SE of HFD to SE Ma... Just the way these aspects we're experiencing appeal to me this morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Happy Birthday Ginxy, sorry you didn't get your storm, maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pure opinion influenced by objective residue ... Part of my problem with the popularity/headlining wrt to the 'record breaking' warmth today ...and just the attention that was/is given to it, is my own attitude - admittedly. We've been heat blasted to between 75 and 82 F at least three times in the last five years, during Februaries. So by comparison, today just looks and feels - to me - like more of the same shit we've been dealt all winter - not necessarily more worthy of the coverage. Ha...you know - it seems there are two types of wave mechanics to this weather engagement: those that occur in the atmosphere; those that ripple through crowed noise. Sometimes those are in phase... As far as the near miss coastal... Probably, that is what it will be imho. We'll see. But the NAM has that NW bias issue over the west Atlantic. It tends to turn polarward too aggressively. I've been hammering this for years - I haven't seen any evidence that it's been corrected. This is a situation that is perfect for that model to dabble in that bias - an unaffiliated ( with the westerlies) coughing tumbler left to move through the field from something like beta drift almost entirely... ? It may sprinkle/light rain/inconsequential ping for an hour or two SE of HFD to SE Ma... Just the way these aspects we're experiencing appeal to me this morning.. 2/10 has some of the weakest warm records in SNE, so it's pretty easy to attain record highs. Headline is correct but doesn't mean 70+. Even torchy BDL only has a record high of 55F today (already beaten) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pure opinion influenced by objective residue ... Part of my problem with the popularity/headlining wrt to the 'record breaking' warmth today ...and just the attention that was/is given to it, is my own attitude - admittedly. We've been heat blasted to between 75 and 82 F at least three times in the last five years, during Februaries. So by comparison, today just looks and feels - to me - like more of the same shit we've been dealt all winter - not necessarily more worthy of the coverage. Ha...you know - it seems there are two types of wave mechanics to this weather engagement: those that occur in the atmosphere; those that ripple through crowed noise. Sometimes those are in phase... As far as the near miss coastal... Probably, that is what it will be imho. We'll see. But the NAM has that NW bias issue over the west Atlantic. It tends to turn polarward too aggressively. I've been hammering this for years - I haven't seen any evidence that it's been corrected. This is a situation that is perfect for that model to dabble in that bias - an unaffiliated ( with the westerlies) coughing tumbler left to move through the field from something like beta drift almost entirely... ? It may sprinkle/light rain/inconsequential ping for an hour or two SE of HFD to SE Ma... Just the way these aspects we're experiencing appeal to me this morning.. Devils advocate fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: amazing to have such a persistent pattern all winter, PV looks stout PV does not look to remain stout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The last MJO phase 8 attempt in January was a fail. Those RMM charts are very noisy. The problem is the atmosphere is still solidly into La Niña “mode”. The Niña standing wave convection over the warm pool (eastern IO/maritime continent) is going destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate out into the PAC. The trades are still strong, which isn’t helping either, shears the wave apart. The SOI is still very solidly into Niña territory as well, so even though it’s starting to fade at the surface/SSTs and subsurface, it’s still well coupled to the atmosphere. IMO this turns into another phase 8 fail This is a valid argument. We probably have a better shot at a significant NAO block than a sustained PNA ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Devils advocate fetish Pot, kettle lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Happy birthday Ginx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The last MJO phase 8 attempt in January was a fail. Those RMM charts are very noisy. The problem is the atmosphere is still solidly into La Niña “mode”. The Niña standing wave convection over the warm pool (eastern IO/maritime continent) is going destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate out into the PAC. The trades are still strong, which isn’t helping either, shears the wave apart. The SOI is still very solidly into Niña territory as well, so even though it’s starting to fade at the surface/SSTs and subsurface, it’s still well coupled to the atmosphere. IMO this turns into another phase 8 fail Agreed... I've been explaining the same facets in my own unintelligible way all winter. i called the 7/8 RMM boundary the "La Nina firewall" for fun. I'll just add couple of aspects. This year's total circulation manifold, other than that ~ 3 weeks post Xmas when Calif got bombed by a Nino river, has been dominated by a well-coupled identity wrt the basal La Nina. I suspect that persistence/bias only decays at the same rate as the winter smears into spring... leaving us with pretty much a complete end-to-end "MJO futility winter". But, there is are competing aspects in the way the local hemisphere ( Date line to S of Greenland) is being handled in the models. In one sense, the right-side RMM MJO is a positive La Nina interference. Combining that with the warm La Nina, late winter into spring warmth, combined with a PNA that's trying to slip negative, etc. These are passive arguments for an early escape. In the other sense, the N/stream is being very aggressive in the means, from all guidance sources as far as I can tell. It's really as though the N/hem is split into a negative interference between the lower and higher latitudes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 This is a valid argument. We probably have a better shot at a significant NAO block than a sustained PNA ridge.I guess it may ride on the stratosphere. There’s some serious doubts about what this SSWE is actually going to do for us. There as doubts as to whether it actually downwells and couples with the troposphere, or, if it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? This is a good point: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pot, kettle lol Fair enough sir Brings me back to days at fox hall when if I didn’t JP, I wished eternal torch from Maine to Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I guess it may ride on the stratosphere. There’s some serious doubts about what this SSWE is actually going to do for us. There as doubts as to whether it actually downwells and couples with the troposphere, or, if it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? This is a good point: I’m pretty sure it’s Gonna do nothing appreciable per usual for NE winter enthusiasts and would put $ behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I guess it may ride on the stratosphere. There’s some serious doubts about what this SSWE is actually going to do for us. There as doubts as to whether it actually downwells and couples with the troposphere, or, if it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? This is a good point: Yes...all valid concerns that I share. This is why I don't foresee any sustained, major negative temp anomalies, but that doesn't mean that it won't term more wintry and see some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So by comparison, today just looks and feels - to me - like more of the same shit we've been dealt all winter - not necessarily more worthy of the coverage. More interesting is the temperature range in the past week. For KBOS, -10˚ to 57˚ , a 67˚ range in a week which has only happened three times before at Logan. Getting into the top 3 would require 69˚ which is certainly not out of the question: 74˚, Feb 1943 (when Logan recorded its lowest temperatures). -14˚ on 2/15, and 60˚ on 2/21. 70˚, Apr 1976. 24˚ on the 12th, 94˚ on the 18th. 69˚, Feb, 2016, -9˚ to 60˚ (and 54˚ within two days!) 63˚, March 2007, 5˚ to 68˚ 62˚, Jan 2018, -2˚ to 61˚ Three of the top six within the last 7 years … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 59/36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m pretty sure it’s Gonna do nothing appreciable per usual for NE winter enthusiasts and would put $ behind it Define appreciable...large gap between "appreciable " and March 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Define appreciable... Haha let’s see ... you won’t see more than “15” from March 1 Onward my guess is March and April May ave close to 15” for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Haha let’s see ... you won’t see more than “15” from March 1 Onward Good over/under. Same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 63 for high here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good over/under. Same page. Damn lol i would set the o/u lower but if I was wagering I was trying to set odds (in what I believe is )in my favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Yes...all valid concerns that I share. This is why I don't foresee any sustained, major negative temp anomalies, but that doesn't mean that it won't term more wintry and see some snow.Let’s see if the weeklies can actually hold that post Feb. 25th high latitude blocked look and advance it forward in time. If that gets delayed and pushed into the March, I’d say it’s over for everyone south of New England at that point. You guys can still snow well into March and even early April, but once you get to the 15th, it’s pretty much done south of you guys minus some anomalous, freak event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Damn lol i would set the o/u lower but if I was wagering I was trying to set odds (in what I believe is )in my favor This was kind of my point...that takes the entire region out of ratter territory, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Let’s see if the weeklies can actually hold that post Feb. 25th high latitude blocked look and advance it forward in time. If that gets delayed and pushed into the March, I’d say it’s over for everyone south of New England at that point. You guys can still snow well into March and even early April, but once you get to the 15th, it’s pretty much done south of you guys minus some anomalous, freak event Yea, skepticism is warranted in relation to the weeklies at this juncture, but we can both agree that that is a viable outcome considering the evolution of the polar stratosphere. Will reality be more tempered? Very possible if not likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This was kind of my point...that takes the entire region out of ratter territory, most likely. If I pick up 15” more, I’m at 19”, that’s a rat here. Those that are in N. Mass that would take you out of Rat territory yes. But anything south of that, 15” more is still a rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: If I pick up 15” more, I’m at 19”, that’s a rat here. Those that are in N. Mass that would take you out of Rat territory yes. But anything south of that, 15” more is still a rat. 15" AFTER 3/1....I think there is a viable threat(s) beforehand. But fine...out of futility range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Last year the NAO tanked on March 15th and stayed negative through just about all of April. It didn't even materialize in snowfall. It just made for shit weather. I really, really hope that does not happen. But that would be close to 3 year persistence... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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