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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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57 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Everything is still fully equipped here but at this point I’m rooting for more warmth, around April 1 my ACH from CTDOT will show up with the yearly guarantee and I didn’t have to burn any fuel, payroll, broken plows, etc, only downside is having to wait for the $ all winter….. great winter for my seasonal loader rental for the local airport too, only one event for it since November otherwise just collecting the monthly check

I remember some years back a few towns in this area removed plow equipment near the end of February and ended up caught with their pants down. It's just foolish if you're in the business to uninstall before April 1st

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This morning confirms just what kind of pit I live in....I couldn't believe the weather station when I saw it...So I took another thermometer down to compare. Along with the ice on the ground and the swing set. Everyone else, 40s and 50s, 32⁰ here, it was actually 30.7⁰ when I got up. I am sure the wood was cooling the thermometer a bit, it is still close. Our deck was 34.5⁰

Screenshot_20230210-072816_Gallery.jpg

20230210_072134.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

So you are saying enjoy it while we can? Looks pretty cold just north of us, if the GEFS have the correct idea.

Both ensembles start pressing the PV a bit more near the end. If there’s going to be one last run at winter like the weeklies show, then it will start showing up the last few days of the month and into early March…if the ensembles start pushing it out another week or so as we get closer, the. I’m inclined to stick a fork in winter. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both ensembles start pressing the PV a bit more near the end. If there’s going to be one last run at winter like the weeklies show, then it will start showing up the last few days of the month and into early March…if the ensembles start pushing it out another week or so as we get closer, the. I’m inclined to stick a fork in winter. 

I assume we need to block the form or we’re cooked. That could press the PV down and hold it there for a while. That happened in December but we had bad luck. Probably we would have a better outcome this time for snow. Ray seems to be extremely on board for blocking, “near certainty”. But if it doesn’t happen, Then let’s get warm and dry out lol 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both ensembles start pressing the PV a bit more near the end. If there’s going to be one last run at winter like the weeklies show, then it will start showing up the last few days of the month and into early March…if the ensembles start pushing it out another week or so as we get closer, the. I’m inclined to stick a fork in winter. 

Both the GEFS and ECMWF have the MJO getting into phase 8 at a good amplitude before dropping into the COD. This can be another good window.

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Both the GEFS and ECMWF have the MJO getting into phase 8 at a good amplitude before dropping into the COD. This can be another good window.

The last MJO phase 8 attempt in January was a fail. Those RMM charts are very noisy. The problem is the atmosphere is still solidly into La Niña “mode”. The Niña standing wave convection over the warm pool (eastern IO/maritime continent) is going destructively interfere with the MJO wave as it tries to propagate out into the PAC. The trades are still strong, which isn’t helping either, shears the wave apart. The SOI is still very solidly into Niña territory as well, so even though it’s starting to fade at the surface/SSTs and subsurface, it’s still well coupled to the atmosphere. IMO this turns into another phase 8 fail
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