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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Modeling is all over the place…don’t trust anything as others have said. And 18z runs always something crazy….it’s a joke with those.  Lol where’s the huge cold shot it had at 12z?  Off hr runs are horrible. 

The problem is looking beyond 7-10 days. Obviously small initial variations will lead to large model differences at that range.

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28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What was the pattern flip that made Feb ‘21 so great ? I had 39” that month. Also had 25” Jan ‘22. So those big months helped otherwise bad seasons. 

Nice west based-NAO block….really worked it’s magic. Deep -PNA but all that did was keep it active. The trough wasn’t digging into Baja California either. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2021 was the last great pack. It doesn’t happen often but there is always hope for one. The hope for one is gone by 2/15. 

Yea after the multi day cutoff in early Feb, that was a nice pack month. That’s pretty much our max though barring anything truly historic. I never focus or worry about a pack winter here though. If it happens, cool. 

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46 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2021 was the last great pack. It doesn’t happen often but there is always hope for one. The hope for one is gone by 2/15. 

Don’t tell eastern CT and SE mass that there’s no hope for a pack after 2/15…cuz March of ‘18 laughs at that statement….even after 82 degrees in mid February that year. 

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The thing is, of all the winters that finished strongly, show me a total ratter throughout all of January.  2018 had a torchy latter part of February but deep cold and some good snow in December and early January.   I can’t bring up any outside of 2006-07 which was a nino.

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