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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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I wonder if we can sneak an event in during the 2/19-2/23 period there’s a decent PV press and fast flow…type of pattern where guidance wouldn’t see threats very well. You also have the SE ridge trying to build back up…sometimes that helps and sometimes it hurts. 

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder if we can sneak an event in during the 2/19-2/23 period there’s a decent PV press and fast flow…type of pattern where guidance wouldn’t see threats very well. You also have the SE ridge trying to build back up…sometimes that helps and sometimes it hurts. 

well ...it's going to hurt determinism, certainly...

That flow is ridiculously fast.  I've opined plenty the tendency for velocity saturation in the hemispheric stream line analysis as a recurring theme spanning multiple winters blah bla-blah bla-blah...but some of these runs are the fastest I've ever seen.

It's like the warm vision is succeeding at the same time this new bully N/stream is trying to take over down wind of some kinda of ...weird -EPO that doesn't look like one :arrowhead: ... and the end result is S/Ws entering B.C. and leaving coastal Maine in < 2 days...  wow

Yeah, I'd change the word "sneak" to get wholly gratuitously lucky haha

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56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Philly will definitely lose their snowpack, so will all of NNE, but not here.  We lose a bit but then get frozen and meaty for a few days.  Next week though, could do serious damage and maybe clear out the open sunniest fields.  There was a pretty good pack when I drove down to Dover on Tuesday.  Snow on the ground in Dover, but not too many miles inland, Northwood for example, had 6+ everywhere and probably a good bit more in the woods.

Really? lol

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41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow…I wouldn’t think even close to that, but I hope you’re right. That would be quite a turn around for sure…and a big March.  I’d guess if you get 10-12” that’d be generous. I like your optimism. 

It's really not a huge stretch to have 25" combined for February and March. I mean...I was like +9 for January and had 17.5". Figure less precip, but also less extreme positive temp departures.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's really not a huge stretch to have 25" combined for February and March. I mean...I was like +9 for January and had 17.5". Figure less precip, but also less extreme positive temp departures.

It’s hard to communicate your idea in a winter with so little snow…esp to your south. Some people down in CT have like 1-2” on the entire season…lol. 
 

But yeah, it’s really not that weird if you picked up, say, 6-8” in the rest of February and then had a 16-22” March. It would be a good stretch but nothing super anomalous. 
 

I get the skepticism though in a ratter winter. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's really not a huge stretch to have 25" combined for February and March. I mean...I was like +9 for January and had 17.5". Figure less precip, but also less extreme positive temp departures.

No, of course not, but this year everything is a stretch regarding any winter weather. I hope you’re right..cuz that would indicate chances of winter weather. And a pretty snowy March. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s hard to communicate your idea in a winter with so little snow…esp to your south. Some people down in CT have like 1-2” on the entire season…lol. 
 

But yeah, it’s really not that weird if you picked up, say, 6-8” in the rest of February and then had a 16-22” March. It would be a good stretch but nothing super anomalous. 
 

I get the skepticism though in a ratter winter. 

Yes exactly.  Not a big deal for most in SNE in a decent/normal winter. But this year We can’t get a dam thing to even get into 3-4 day range, let alone work out.  It’s quite the RAT…the likes of which could be historic, if there isn’t a wintry March. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s hard to communicate your idea in a winter with so little snow…esp to your south. Some people down in CT have like 1-2” on the entire season…lol. 
 

But yeah, it’s really not that weird if you picked up, say, 6-8” in the rest of February and then had a 16-22” March. It would be a good stretch but nothing super anomalous. 
 

I get the skepticism though in a ratter winter. 

Yea, I get it...which is why I was trying to elaborate to add perspective.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But you’re not really expecting anything. Just yesterday you made a post that you’re not expecting anything correct ?

Right...as in would I be suprised if the rest of the season produced very little? Would I be pissed? The answer to each is "no". But I was trying to convey what I think may happen. 

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