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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I had actually called for back in November was for a late season PV disruption that would fall sort of official SSW criteria (wind reversal), but would still provide a fairly wintry ending.

Willing to see how this plays out, friend of my came to my shop this AM, said he heard some small company in Hudson, NH (next door to my city) removed their plows and sanders for the season, I keep our stuff on always to April 1....maybe they will dodge a bullet, I just think some thing has to break in our favor, granted maybe solar will melt it quick, but what a shame for the start of February .....shower passed through, sitting @ 40F

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1 minute ago, 512high said:

Willing to see how this plays out, friend of my came to my shop this AM, said he heard some small company in Hudson, NH (next door to my city) removed their plows and sanders for the season, I keep our stuff on always to April 1....maybe they will dodge a bullet, I just think some thing has to break in our favor, granted maybe solar will melt it quick, but what a shame for the start of February .....shower passed through, sitting @ 40F

Yea, keep the plows on, Phil.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, for someone who has queefed historic snowfalls over the past several years of regional despair, you sure are one miserable SOB.

:lol:. Not miserable, just so over this shit stain “winter”.

It hasn’t been overly warm despite the numbers, and it’s been cloudy or rainy seemingly every other day. It’s just wearing on me at this point.

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If someone put a gun to my head right snow, I would say that the cold will not be overly impressive late this month into March, aside from perhaps another glancing blow....and that March will be the snowiest month overall for SNE (low bar), but not like March 2018.

Do you think the weeklies after 2/25 are real this time or is this yet another mirage? The GEFS ext are showing a big SE Ridge the 1st week of March in direct opposition of the weeklies
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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

index (15).png

gets better, actually. locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th

as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo

0E850AA1-983D-45C5-A003-28BAA614CB4D.thumb.gif.179e316b16e5cbac0d369bb51bd92bb0.gifFBF148B4-1883-4421-90E4-56B0DF981160.png.27b06b4f0c621e122bca8112887f5a52.png

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:


Do you think the weeklies after 2/25 are real this time or is this yet another mirage? The GEFS ext are showing a big SE Ridge the 1st week of March in direct opposition of the weeklies

I haven't viewed the weeklies, but I do not expect a very mild pattern during at least the first half of March.

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gets better, actually. locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th

as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo

0E850AA1-983D-45C5-A003-28BAA614CB4D.thumb.gif.179e316b16e5cbac0d369bb51bd92bb0.gifFBF148B4-1883-4421-90E4-56B0DF981160.png.27b06b4f0c621e122bca8112887f5a52.png

 

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39 minutes ago, 512high said:

Willing to see how this plays out, friend of my came to my shop this AM, said he heard some small company in Hudson, NH (next door to my city) removed their plows and sanders for the season, I keep our stuff on always to April 1....maybe they will dodge a bullet, I just think some thing has to break in our favor, granted maybe solar will melt it quick, but what a shame for the start of February .....shower passed through, sitting @ 40F

Thats laughable. If they really did that, it's probably one of the stupidest things I've heard lately. Plows are easy to install...Sanders not so much 

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

Thats laughable. If they really did that, it's probably one of the stupidest things I've heard lately. Plows are easy to install...Sanders not so much 

Yes, plows quick, sanders not so quick, did they bury the stuff in the shop? I have a CAT908M with a Metal Pless wing plow, with two other trucks sitting, saving on fuel and so far no plow damage ! lolI

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If someone put a gun to my head right snow, I would say that the cold will not be overly impressive late this month into March, aside from perhaps another glancing blow....and that March will be the snowiest month overall for SNE (low bar), but not like March 2018.

Very reasonable forecast. 

Down here we might get our first inch in March this year. Only the second time in my lifetime if that happens

But it's only Feb 9 so take the weeklies with a grain of salt. Very low bar to clear for March to outperform Jan/Feb though.

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bye

FB_IMG_1675981336219.jpg

We are due for a huge winter. Post 2015 has been really shitty for the most part with only a couple good years. The warm waters being displaced to the west is a good sign. If that comes up, we will have a west based El Niño. Man, it really looked like this was going to be a big one with all that blocking in early December on the models. I don’t know what happened.

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Big pack eating event underway. Dews broadly already up above freezing and can't find backing winds until you're in Wisconsin.

68/48 Cleveland OH.

61/49 Erie PA

Philly hundreds of miles from the core of the warm sector already 60/47.

 

bigsfc.gif?1675978352050

Philly will definitely lose their snowpack, so will all of NNE, but not here.  We lose a bit but then get frozen and meaty for a few days.  Next week though, could do serious damage and maybe clear out the open sunniest fields.  There was a pretty good pack when I drove down to Dover on Tuesday.  Snow on the ground in Dover, but not too many miles inland, Northwood for example, had 6+ everywhere and probably a good bit more in the woods.

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