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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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28 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

did you look at the ens?

Nope…just commented on what Hippy showed.  Don’t know why you weenied me for commenting on what that run showed? This is a weather forum right?
 

 Do I think it will play out just like that? Of course not. But at some point something has to give…can’t keep constantly rolling the bad side of the coin forever. 

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32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nope…just commented on what Hippy showed.  Don’t know why you weenied me for commenting on what that run showed? This is a weather forum right?
 

 Do I think it will play out just like that? Of course not. But at some point something has to give…can’t keep constantly rolling the bad side of the coin forever. 

I think sometimes the emoji reactions are more geared towards the image, rather than the poster.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a frustrating event....so close to a monster hit....the system just couldn't quite get it's act together for the final bump north to get the real goods in here. I would've had a 50 inch month if it had.

That month had 4 monster storms.  We whiffed on 1 and 4 but totaled 3 feet from 2 & 3.  Had we batted 1.000, it is to dream.  :D

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2 hours ago, DJln491 said:

I grew up near Lake Winnipesaukee.  I was a college student home on break.  It was surreal.  Like the apocalypse had just happened.  The impact it had on the woods/forests for years to come was amazing.  Can probably still see some effects.  Massive trees completely bent over with their tips touching the ground, many of which never recovered.  We headed a little south and everything was fine. shacked up in hotel rooms with my parents and a couple of their friends.  My dad grumbling that he had to pay for a hotel room so close to his house.  lol.   

That storm ranks with the most exciting weather events I've experienced, though as a forester it had a dark side.  Fortunately, more than 95% of BPL's Lands Division was north and/or west of major damage.  Some southern Maine state lots were devastated, especially Hebron, but the only large tract to suffer heavy damage was Tunk/Donnell, east from Ellsworth.

On of the most ironic effects from that storm occurred in NNH, where Gorham had RA, MWN was setting warmth records, and areas 1500-2500' asl were hammered.

 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the only place I feel like has a decent shot at futility is BDR....anyone else really just needs an advisory event (or less in the case of BOS) to ruin any futility chances. Given that there's some evidence we go into a bit more of normal look for late Feb and perhaps favorable look beyond that, I don't have a reason to buy the futility futures right now.

EPS really flipped the script on that colder look days 10-15 the last few runs.. 

 

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I will say...this is happening. Guidance is locked and loaded on that....how exactly it manifests will dictate whether we ultimately give a flying flake and that is TBD.

Should at least be some modicum of validation with respect to the late season portion of my outlook, though. Kind of like how I got the very active January right. That is what is frustrating about seasonal outlooks....you can get important details right, but the sensible result can still turn the forecast to doo doo because either you missed something else, or it didn't quite have the impact you expected.

What a mine field.

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9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You have today's update already?

Yes, it shows what the EPS shows through about Feb 25ish and then it goes gangbusters with the arctic blocking and sends low heights for us all the way through the equinox. No doubt, we'd prob have a really active/stormy March is they verified....but yeah, taken with a grain of salt for now.

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Simon Lee alluded to that yesterday and HM is not impressed at all with it. He said it’s “Zzz”

That is part of why January was such an epic disaster, despite the fact that it was uber active and SNE snowfall is generally more highly correlated to precip, than temps. Normally, that would have still been a decent to very good month for snowfall, but all of the cold got locked into Siberia and the PNA was constantly west based, which funneled any morsel of cold that managed to sneak onto this side of the globe into the west.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, it shows what the EPS shows through about Feb 25ish and then it goes gangbusters with the arctic blocking and sends low heights for us all the way through the equinox. No doubt, we'd prob have a really active/stormy March is they verified....but yeah, taken with a grain of salt for now.

I can easily see how this goes either way, which is of zero help, forecast wise. But what I do know is that it is happening and is unlikely to allow futility for anyone...at least in New England, anyway.

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