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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

List of years that had this PV disruption 3rd week of Feb is pretty impressive. When March is colder than Feb things happen. Teleconnections seem to merge to a cold look on weeklies

I do think March will be colder than Jan/Feb but 2018 will be difficult to pull off. 

At that stage of the game I'll be happy either way. If March sucks then it's status quo and spring is here. If it delivers then we get something to look forward to. 

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Man, GGEM is really close....gets really heavy banding into Cape and far S shore. It's cold enough at 925 and 850 for snow, so if that backed in a little further, then we'd be talking a legit event.

I still think the odds are pretty low though. Seems like that kicker shortwave coming through the lakes will inhibit this from coming much further north.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I do think March will be colder than Jan/Feb but 2018 will be difficult to pull off. 

At that stage of the game I'll be happy either way. If March sucks then it's status quo and spring is here. If it delivers then we get something to look forward to. 

Very very true. I hope we get one bomb and call it a day 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't know if you saw it yesterday but I posted a long list of monthly totals. Was surprised to see Blue hill and Putnam Ct with 52 while ORH had 35. Can picture a death band from Scooter to LI

Ashland coop right near me had over 46" and change. What's weird is Ashburnham and other sites north of ORH had more too....wonder if they had a couple bad measurements....or they just happened to get unlucky.

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I hope that nobody thinks that anyone that's talking about the SSW is guaranteeing anything... it's just something that can legitimately lead to blocking late in the year and actually shake the pattern up. it's not voodoo either... this is very likely to occur

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Yes we have to be careful because some peeps especially out of towners turn discussion into forecasts in a heart beat

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ashland coop right near me had over 46" and change. What's weird is Ashburnham and other sites north of ORH had more too....wonder if they had a couple bad measurements....or they just happened to get unlucky.

I seem to remember reading  North Shore and Ray's area got smoked by a late bloomer and southeast of ORH got smoked by an offshore.  Seems concentrated from ORH NW 

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15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

SPV from 10-50mb gets torn to shreds. would not surprise me at all if we got blocky in March

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-7304800.thumb.png.2d8bcc28919ab83624f4f98495fc1944.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z50_anom-7304800.thumb.png.9d956386637e2188cfd539bcd11321ff.png

If as some modeling has suggested, we go back to something more wintery after next week, we could actually have a long stretch of winter conditions, extended by the SSWE through the whole of March and even early April.  Frankly I'd rather one more 2-3 week period of deep winter and then move to an early and nice spring.  But of course I/we have literally no control over that and my energy is better spent enjoying what I have!

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

If as some modeling has suggested, we go back to something more wintery after next week, we could actually have a long stretch of winter conditions, extended by the SSWE through the whole of March and even early April.  Frankly I'd rather one more 2-3 week period of deep winter and then move to an early and nice spring.  But of course I/we have literally no control over that and my energy is better spent enjoying what I have!

Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can never understand people from out of New England coming in here complaining about their winter. So odd 

that's my point. IDGAF if it rains, snows, or there is a meteor strike in NY/NJ. that these clowns continue to post in the NE subforum pretty much defeats the purpose of subforums. are the NE posters supposed to go to the NY NJ subforum and brag about having more snow? Last i knew that was frowned upon by the establishemnt.

I already have some of them on ignore, and the list is growing.

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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, GGEM is really close....gets really heavy banding into Cape and far S shore. It's cold enough at 925 and 850 for snow, so if that backed in a little further, then we'd be talking a legit event.

I still think the odds are pretty low though. Seems like that kicker shortwave coming through the lakes will inhibit this from coming much further north.

We just can’t catch a break whatsoever…amazing.  A true Rat to the core. 
 

I mean what are the odds of flipping the coin 12 times, and getting the bad side every single dam time?  It’s mind boggling. 

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45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk. blocking is showing up during the first week of the month on modeling, and you can get snow for almost the entire month if enough cold air is displaced. I'll take my chances, and if it doesn't happen, it'll torch and that'll be nice too

like this storm happened with 10 days left on the month... was a significant one

20180320-20180322-1_63.thumb.jpg.00f1c4dee51affc1416ea8576d34fd74.jpg

that was the second brutal bust in these parts that month. Was forecast to get a solid 12-18”. Wound up with 2”, while Islip due south pulled 24”. I recall Ryan catching some heat for that forecast. 

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1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

better odds in Vegas

Right….?  It’s unreal.  Always a shortwave or a scooter shit streak when ya don’t need it this year.  When ya want it, nowhere to be found.  I’m just blown away by the amount of times it has gone wrong …and all in a row.  
 

It’s gotta snap at some point. So I expect a horrid spring. 

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Just now, Hoth said:

that was the second brutal bust in these parts that month. Was forecast to get a solid 12-18”. Wound up with 2”, while Islip due south pulled 24”. I recall Ryan catching some heat for that forecast. 

Yup..that was a modeling disaster that one. He did take some heat. He tried to say he didn’t think the big amounts were gonna play out, but modeling insisted. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..that was a modeling disaster that one. He did take some heat. He tried to say he didn’t think the big amounts were gonna play out, but modeling insisted. 

That was a frustrating event....so close to a monster hit....the system just couldn't quite get it's act together for the final bump north to get the real goods in here. I would've had a 50 inch month if it had.

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