Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ray's March 1956 incoming.... Don't know if you saw it yesterday but I posted a long list of monthly totals. Was surprised to see Blue hill and Putnam Ct with 52 while ORH had 35. Can picture a death band from Scooter to LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: List of years that had this PV disruption 3rd week of Feb is pretty impressive. When March is colder than Feb things happen. Teleconnections seem to merge to a cold look on weeklies I do think March will be colder than Jan/Feb but 2018 will be difficult to pull off. At that stage of the game I'll be happy either way. If March sucks then it's status quo and spring is here. If it delivers then we get something to look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Man, GGEM is really close....gets really heavy banding into Cape and far S shore. It's cold enough at 925 and 850 for snow, so if that backed in a little further, then we'd be talking a legit event. I still think the odds are pretty low though. Seems like that kicker shortwave coming through the lakes will inhibit this from coming much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I hope that nobody thinks that anyone that's talking about the SSW is guaranteeing anything... it's just something that can legitimately lead to blocking late in the year and actually shake the pattern up. it's not voodoo either... this is very likely to occur 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 37.5/25 Bit of an interesting afternoon up here. Since it will not affect SNE I will just muck up the NNE thread with obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I do think March will be colder than Jan/Feb but 2018 will be difficult to pull off. At that stage of the game I'll be happy either way. If March sucks then it's status quo and spring is here. If it delivers then we get something to look forward to. Very very true. I hope we get one bomb and call it a day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't know if you saw it yesterday but I posted a long list of monthly totals. Was surprised to see Blue hill and Putnam Ct with 52 while ORH had 35. Can picture a death band from Scooter to LI Ashland coop right near me had over 46" and change. What's weird is Ashburnham and other sites north of ORH had more too....wonder if they had a couple bad measurements....or they just happened to get unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I hope that nobody thinks that anyone that's talking about the SSW is guaranteeing anything... it's just something that can legitimately lead to blocking late in the year and actually shake the pattern up. it's not voodoo either... this is very likely to occur Yes we have to be careful because some peeps especially out of towners turn discussion into forecasts in a heart beat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ashland coop right near me had over 46" and change. What's weird is Ashburnham and other sites north of ORH had more too....wonder if they had a couple bad measurements....or they just happened to get unlucky. I seem to remember reading North Shore and Ray's area got smoked by a late bloomer and southeast of ORH got smoked by an offshore. Seems concentrated from ORH NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: SPV from 10-50mb gets torn to shreds. would not surprise me at all if we got blocky in March If as some modeling has suggested, we go back to something more wintery after next week, we could actually have a long stretch of winter conditions, extended by the SSWE through the whole of March and even early April. Frankly I'd rather one more 2-3 week period of deep winter and then move to an early and nice spring. But of course I/we have literally no control over that and my energy is better spent enjoying what I have! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Can it make it down to the troposphere and make a difference where we live? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 35 minutes ago, Hoth said: 18” on Memorial Day right to the coast. I actually do wonder what an equivalent springtime analog of Oct ‘11 would look like. It would look like a power grid disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: If as some modeling has suggested, we go back to something more wintery after next week, we could actually have a long stretch of winter conditions, extended by the SSWE through the whole of March and even early April. Frankly I'd rather one more 2-3 week period of deep winter and then move to an early and nice spring. But of course I/we have literally no control over that and my energy is better spent enjoying what I have! Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I can never understand people from out of New England coming in here complaining about their winter. So odd that's my point. IDGAF if it rains, snows, or there is a meteor strike in NY/NJ. that these clowns continue to post in the NE subforum pretty much defeats the purpose of subforums. are the NE posters supposed to go to the NY NJ subforum and brag about having more snow? Last i knew that was frowned upon by the establishemnt. I already have some of them on ignore, and the list is growing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years 2009....summer was a disaster though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 2009....summer was a disaster though. The summer correlation and numerous TSTM events seems to work better if you go back 50 years....2002 though, at least in NYC got warm late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years How were the nina to nino transition for summeh’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 37.5/25 Bit of an interesting afternoon up here. Since it will not affect SNE I will just muck up the NNE thread with obs muck away right in here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, GGEM is really close....gets really heavy banding into Cape and far S shore. It's cold enough at 925 and 850 for snow, so if that backed in a little further, then we'd be talking a legit event. I still think the odds are pretty low though. Seems like that kicker shortwave coming through the lakes will inhibit this from coming much further north. We just can’t catch a break whatsoever…amazing. A true Rat to the core. I mean what are the odds of flipping the coin 12 times, and getting the bad side every single dam time? It’s mind boggling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'd buy that book lol. I'm fascinated with 1888. Followed by the Arctic Outbreak of 1899. It's mind blowing reading through the Kocin paper on it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/3/4/1520-0434_1988_003_0305_tgaoae_2_0_co_2.xml?tab_body=pdf Here's the book... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We just can’t catch a break whatsoever…amazing. A true Rat to the core. I mean what are the odds of flipping the coin 12 times, and getting the bad side every single dam time? It’s mind boggling. better odds in Vegas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Pelting sleet in Greenfield at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: idk. blocking is showing up during the first week of the month on modeling, and you can get snow for almost the entire month if enough cold air is displaced. I'll take my chances, and if it doesn't happen, it'll torch and that'll be nice too like this storm happened with 10 days left on the month... was a significant one that was the second brutal bust in these parts that month. Was forecast to get a solid 12-18”. Wound up with 2”, while Islip due south pulled 24”. I recall Ryan catching some heat for that forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: better odds in Vegas Right….? It’s unreal. Always a shortwave or a scooter shit streak when ya don’t need it this year. When ya want it, nowhere to be found. I’m just blown away by the amount of times it has gone wrong …and all in a row. It’s gotta snap at some point. So I expect a horrid spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Ukie .. hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, Hoth said: that was the second brutal bust in these parts that month. Was forecast to get a solid 12-18”. Wound up with 2”, while Islip due south pulled 24”. I recall Ryan catching some heat for that forecast. Yup..that was a modeling disaster that one. He did take some heat. He tried to say he didn’t think the big amounts were gonna play out, but modeling insisted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years If we can pull off a cold damp spring in SNE, this forum will be a misery index, psychological case study. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup..that was a modeling disaster that one. He did take some heat. He tried to say he didn’t think the big amounts were gonna play out, but modeling insisted. That was a frustrating event....so close to a monster hit....the system just couldn't quite get it's act together for the final bump north to get the real goods in here. I would've had a 50 inch month if it had. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: If we can pull off a cold damp spring in SNE, this forum will be a misery index, psychological case study. I wont be in here much at that point..I think most will check out if that happens. See ya during tropical season in late August/September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ukie .. hmmm 45 or 48 for a high...hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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