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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t bank on much of anything now, but it’s still pretty close this far out.

Yeah I think this one is likely a close miss (as we've been surmising for days) but you can't ignore that the ensembles have maybe like 1 out of 3 members with advisory type snows into SNE. So while it's likely nothing, can't completely write it off.

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23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The LP was too far SW for SE and Eastern areas. Looped SE of eastern LI.

NAO must have been Strongly negative with a positive PNA and negative EPO.

Started as rain…rained for a while too. And look how much CT got. Incredible.  My area was close to 50” it was said. 

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54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Higher crime since it's not that cold and snowy?

So we won’t see you anymore till next November then? Lmao.  Somehow I don’t think that’s the case.  You’ll be here talking about the next GFS/Euro run that shows a snow event in a few days.  It’s Feb 9th…she’s gonna play more games for another 5-6 weeks with us here.  Down in the jungle where you are…you have another few weeks too of ghost storms on the modeling.  See you at 12z. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Maybe I can hit 50° 1 day

Warm sector window has gotten pretty short on that....I was hoping to like 36-48 of torchy dry weather, but now it's kind of a FROPA with showers....it still might spike to 60+ if we can briefly get some sun, but it's a fundamentally different look than the Euro a few days ago.

GGEM still has a nice prolonged 2 day warm spell....maybe we can trend back to that.

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warm sector window has gotten pretty short on that....I was hoping to like 36-48 of torchy dry weather, but now it's kind of a FROPA with showers....it still might spike to 60+ if we can briefly get some sun, but it's a fundamentally different look than the Euro a few days ago.

GGEM still has a nice prolonged 2 day warm spell....maybe we can trend back to that.

Euro had orh close to 60 both Thursday and Friday 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm at the point where anything is gravy....while I still think there is some potential, I am done talking it up and holding my breath. My expectations are virtually non existent.

I thought we would see improvements by now so lesson learned. CNE/NNE did get a decent short stretch but the gradient never moved far enough south for SNE.
 

You don’t learn anything from great winters though. They’re awesome of course but they also raise ridiculous expectations. I hope some on here who are used to bathing themselves with KUs after KUs have come down off their Ron Washington high…and gain a fresh perspective aligned with reality.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You know it’s a biggie when 10-20” is shafted.

I don’t know but my guess is it occluded and bombed out too early… and it had some sort of inverted trough mixed in there as well.  But mostly it looks like it occluded and just hammered the area SW of Maine.  Similar to the biggies in the Mid-Atlantic that still hit New England but the main conveyor belts are gone.

LBSW I think is the technical term for it :lol:.

I've only found one Maine site with data for 3/1888, though I'm sure there are others, as shown on the map posted by GINX.  That one I found was Gardiner, south of AUG, which had 8" of paste - guessing the consistency by that day's temp of 38/32.  Meanwhile, 130 miles SW ASH had 30".  Maine was too far east.  PF's explanation looks on target.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least Atlanta will get a couple inches of snow on Sunday . That should make folks feel better. 

Unless the NAM is right they are not seeing anything, the RGEM has the same ULL track and its all rain and I think this thing trends north.  I have told them don't be worried as of now in the metro there...this is typically a major snow event for them barring a north trend but this time with no cold air its not.

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31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro had orh close to 60 both Thursday and Friday 

Dirty looking warm sector though....hopefully it's right as I'd take that over 49-54F and showers lots of clouds.  But I'm guessing it ends up closer to the latter.

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