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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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This needs a "preliminary" awareness thread -

sorry, it does. 

I've seen enough - tell you what... I'll wait it out through the release of the 12z EPS mean... But the GEFs mean did trend, as did the GEPs....   This isn't just the Euro with 2 runs of consistency, it's consistency over top of a multi-sourced, multi-day -NAO situating up there around the climate friendly ( most importantly) cross-hair lat/lon ... NON overly suppressive position.  

It's also inside D6 as it crossing into the OV by D5, and is very physically integrated into the determinants of the entire local hemisphere. These ICON this and GGEM that's are really not accidents, despite -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This needs a "preliminary" awareness thread -

sorry, it does. 

I've seen enough - tell you what... I'll wait it out through the release of the 12z EPS mean... But the GEFs mean did trend, as did the GEPs....   This isn't just the Euro with 2 runs of consistency, it's consistency over top of a multi-sourced, multi-day -NAO situating up there is a climate friendly ( most importantly)  NON overly suppressive position.  

It's also inside D6 as it crossing into the OV and is very physically integrated into the determinants of the entire local hemisphere. These ICON this and GGEM that's are really not accidents. 

I agree. this has to do with the development of the -NAO and the semi-permanent confluence that it's forcing as a result. the synoptic evolution makes sense

I'm excited for the EPS

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree. this has to do with the development of the -NAO and the semi-permanent confluence that it's forcing as a result. the synoptic evolution makes sense

I'm excited for the EPS

right - 'index scaled' has the benefit to determinism of having a lot of physical momentum in the integration of the hemisphere, that's why big events tend to show up.  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is like that stretch in 1956....one after the other every 2-3 days...just don't tell Ray. :lol:

I'm pretty sure 1956 works as a partial analog with the preceding global/long turn indicators... although I don't like using index correlations from mid last Century now, when there are so many coherent changes to the way the circulation modes actually behave ...most likely owing to CC... but let's not go there.

Anyway, I'm not sure how that fits into the La Nina warm spring climate model either - hahaha. Jesus

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It's interesting on the models that it's not really a curled bowling ball wrapping this thing up. In fact, that might be a good thing because it would cause a hugger. It's more this continuous vorticity stream with the strongest part of this stream in the second half to really keep the goods going. 

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Just now, George001 said:

This isn’t like the others, we are tracking a storm with blizzard potential in the mid range now. Even the late December threat which once looked promising was cutting into Wisconsin once it got to the 6-7 day range. 

The operative word ...

I didn't like the gradient layout to be honest.  Everything else is spot on... it's in the cross-hairs of climatology for biggies in a lot of ways, but... the incidence of the primary not fully filling over upstate NY is creating a 'COL' region in the pressure field, which limits the PGF around the NW arc.   In fact, there may not be much wind at all if this solution were to verify, verbatim, out around Orange Mass...

But cross that bridge ...I'm likely getting to into the grits for a system that's still likely to change some of that layout in future runs.   It does have a tightly wound CCB conveyor ...like a 30 mile wide band of wind from Boston to Providence...

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's interesting on the models that it's not really a curled bowling ball wrapping this thing up. In fact, that might be a good thing because it would cause a hugger. It's more this continuous vorticity stream with the strongest part of this stream in the second half to really keep the goods going

Yep!

Not sure there is a very good analog for this/that.   hmm

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27 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

By who lol. I honestly don't remember there even being real threats. 

The last time we had a threat inside of 6 days that was this good-looking was probably last winter. 12/16 did look pretty good but not sure it ever really got inside of 6 days....the last great runs we saw on that one were during the 12/10 GTG when the Euro tried to reincarnate Dec '92....but then it turned crappier almost immediately after those runs.

12/23 looked good until about D7.

This is prob the closest we've been all winter to a modeled warning snow event.

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yup, EPS made some good changes here

  1. slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W
  2. slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W
  3. then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential

the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days

ezgif-2-ebff9f9fe5.thumb.gif.18043e3bac99658e9bb6b4f8ea156cfa.gif

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