Modfan2 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Another winter stretch inbound. For some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: For some! For all… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm, it depends which suite one chooses to side with. The EPS' local hemispheric circulation mode, centered on the same range as these images you've provided above ... would not either allow that type of anomaly distribution you see in the GEFs, ...or if so, it would be deteriorating/normalizing with extreme rapidity Not sure I agree with 'siding' with the GEFs here... the Euro corp has a pretty damn good handle on NAO as a phenomenon over the years - possibly owing to the fact that the NAO's barrel points at that region of the hemisphere with even more scope focus than it does here as a general tendency. ...that prooobably leads them to needing to get that index under control. Just sayn' ..or as much as they can... I dunno. It's kind of like what Megamike was mentioning yesterday ...best to choose a source that's local, over one from the other side of the planet. It's like Earth telling Martians how to forecast their weather - ... fun metaphor. Anyway, here's the EPS 850s for that same frame. Clearly there is a resistance difference in the amount of NAO exertion by the two sources, and that warm anomaly region doesn't get east of the Hudson without attenuation in a Euro-esque proxy... Up to Met and hobbyists to choose I suppose. Yes, but again, 850's could cooperate here (much more likely than not), all the way up to h500. It's the BL, up to 925 where the problems arise. And even though this 12z GFS depiction shows snow in SE NH on this, I am hard selling the clowns here, with a strong southeasterly fetch out ahead. This IS very similar to the problems we had seen during other favorable windows, earlier in the season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3/4 incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS likes the 4th --... that has even more index-scaled appeal than the 28th. Actually, the previous assertion on my part was premature now that look over the 500 mb aspects of these runs. That's more of a needle threading operation aloft, but,...one that appears to have decent antecedent cold like Will was mentioning. So..that helps ( feed-back physics ) in encouraging more S movement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 3/4 incoming. Yeah, I thought we had a chance for a 1-2 week run in February. Clearly that didn't happen, but maybe this is our 1-2 week chance coming up. Looks a lot better than the February chance ever did. Now let's see what can happen to screw things up, lol. I am sitting at 4ish inches for the season....and simple advisory snowfall could double our season total at this point. Maybe we finally get some luck on our side and run the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 3/4 incoming. you're telling me... christ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Ukie is on board for 2/28....redevelops it quick enough similar to GGEM. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: you're telling me... christ Hecs at D10, we got this lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Yeah, I thought we had a chance for a 1-2 week run in February. Clearly that didn't happen, but maybe this is our 1-2 week chance coming up. Looks a lot better than the February chance ever did. Now let's see what can happen to screw things up, lol. I am sitting at 4ish inches for the season....and simple advisory snowfall could double our season total at this point. Maybe we finally get some luck on our side and run the table? I’ll quit the board if we don’t hit 20” by spring solstice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is on board for 2/28....redevelops it quick enough similar to GGEM. I’d take the Canadian and run this winter. Solid 8-12 for most 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 GFS has 3 systems actually beyond tomorrow's fun - on this run... There's a sneaky flat/frontal wave/overrunning signal around 2nd that's got a huge diabatic assists with warm March thickness as far N as PA and continue cold loading above that latitude. That thing could be a half foot for CNE anyway in its own rights - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll quit the board if we don’t hit 20” by spring solstice. I will drive to Southbury, make a quick stop at the Lodge, then get a sandwich at Mikey's, and then kick your ass if you quit the board. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I will drive to Southbury, make a quick stop at the Lodge, then get a sandwich at Mikey's, and then kick your ass if you quit the board. Mikee’s, going there today actually but dude…we can’t get shut out rest of the way. I don’t see it. Maybe I should bet something else though with whoever dares to continue down the path of persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mikee’s, going there today actually but dude…we can’t get shut out rest of the way. I don’t see it. Maybe I should bet something else though with whoever dares to continue down the path of persistence. little Ditty quiet today. must be on his way to the dispensary for ginx. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Between tonight and March 5th, some fun inbound 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Verbatim my 4pm flight on 2/28 isn’t happening…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, tunafish said: little Ditty quiet today. must be on his way to the dispensary for ginx. Lol he’s busy licking the postage stamps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 look how the stronger block and increased confluence separate the S/W of interest from the main trough and force it S... this is what we want to continue to see if we want a favorable outcome with this system 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, George001 said: The cold air thing is a valid point, but it is important to consider that if the storm is strong enough it can make its own cold. Seems like I've been waiting for that to get pulled out for well over a month I knew it was just a matter of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you're telling me... christ lock it in! I'm just over a foot from my lowest ever recorded 2015-16, and over 60" departure from seasonal snowfall avg... need to make up ground here and nickel and dime time is not gonna do it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL, it actually does but it's too phased and taints us. Great!... Another system where the playground is too close to the dump At least there's something interesting to watch finally regardless of outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Start the march OBS thread. I'm done with February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 so far this Euro run looks very similar to the 12z GGEM thru 120 hrs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 looks like it's similar to 00z. nice storm for everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 the confluence forcing the S/W south makes sense here as the -NAO strengthens. I don't think this is the ECMWF doing anything odd, and the GFS should correct if the block is real. this is a typical response to blocking, and it's why the NE US usually does well with these patterns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 A distant thump heard around metro BOS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Wow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Looks good girls. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Woof for 2/28... nice cross guidance signal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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