TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s also the only model remotely showing that. Don’t take the cheese The ensembles are snowy. That makes 50% of modeling I trust showing a snowy solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The GGEM is hugely more in favor of the GFS overall... From this particular point in time and range, it's 2 against 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Would be a good time for the euro to regain the crown instead of the Burger King crown it currently has. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The ensemble means of all three... essentially parrot their operational versions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, George001 said: Long duration too, holy shit that’s a burial. And his gif is causing seizures this morning… 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS continues to get snowier for us. Man, just have one of these threats go right. This year you want to see the heart of that map going through mass and the southern envelope well into southern NJ. Unfortunately we haven’t seen that all winter and depictions like this end up a bullseye over Quebec. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: The ensembles are snowy. That makes 50% of modeling I trust showing a snowy solution. All the ensembles are basically just mirroring the OP runs. tossed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, George001 said: Long duration too, holy shit that’s a burial. Long duration of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 the EPS still likes early next week for a storm, as there's a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Plains and a strong 50/50 in place. if there is enough confluence, then there can be a front-end thump or even a coastal solution like that the OP showed... certainly possible with a 50/50 like that. worth keeping an eye on obviously, we want to see the GFS / CMC get on board, but that will be a matter of which model is correctly handling the -NAO development. no real way to know right now 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS still likes early next week for a storm, as there's a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Plains and a strong 50/50 in place. if there is enough confluence, then there can be a front-end thump or even a coastal solution like that the OP showed... certainly possible with a 50/50 like that. worth keeping an eye on obviously, we want to see the GFS / CMC get on board, but that will be a matter of which model is correctly handling the -NAO development. no real way to know right now The euro used to be the king of handling -nao’s properly but I don’t know if we have anything recent to judge it on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 47 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: This year you want to see the heart of that map going through mass and the southern envelope well into southern NJ. Unfortunately we haven’t seen that all winter and depictions like this end up a bullseye over Quebec. Huh? You haven't seen this depiction all winter. You just spout negatively for negative sake. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Gyx and wunderground both mix or change to rain, but I’m feeling more optimistic because of the euro but also the overall setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I like hearing all of the "Epic Midwest Storm" talk on the news. Makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said: This year you want to see the heart of that map going through mass and the southern envelope well into southern NJ. Unfortunately we haven’t seen that all winter and depictions like this end up a bullseye over Quebec. Thing is, we haven't seen this depiction all winter...it's been like 100 miles north of this with the best over Canada border region usually. So even if this is too far south, it's going to bode well for a large part of NNE/CNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Huh? You haven't seen this depiction all winter. You just spout negatively for negative sake. It’s the prevailing theme now. We get it, it’s been a bad season…we’ve been over it at nausea. Some need to eventually shake it off and put on their pants. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s also the only model remotely showing that. Don’t take the cheese The Euro is the best model we have and it’s not clown range. Even a blend of the Euro and Gfs would be good, something like the Canadian for example. Yes it’s not as good as the Euro but it still gives us a plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS still likes early next week for a storm, as there's a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Plains and a strong 50/50 in place. if there is enough confluence, then there can be a front-end thump or even a coastal solution like that the OP showed... certainly possible with a 50/50 like that. worth keeping an eye on obviously, we want to see the GFS / CMC get on board, but that will be a matter of which model is correctly handling the -NAO development. no real way to know right now While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: EPS has it too. Let the mindless persistence drones dribble on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GGEM is hugely more in favor of the GFS overall... From this particular point in time and range, it's 2 against 1 I get the argument against it...what I have zero use for is the contingent of posters (obviously not you) that are just mentally on auto pilot and bring nothing to the table, aside from a few snide remarks in the direction of anyone venturing to entertain the notion of major snow. That gets older than this winter's pattern. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, jbenedet said: While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada. Yes, even on the EURO, its marginally cold enough until after the storm passes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said: This year you want to see the heart of that map going through mass and the southern envelope well into southern NJ. Unfortunately we haven’t seen that all winter and depictions like this end up a bullseye over Quebec. Actually, more like a bull’s-eye right here., Not Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Actually, more like a bull’s-eye right here., Not Quebec. Don't let facts get in the way of a nice persistence rant.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 31 minutes ago, jbenedet said: While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada. Yes, another strike against this evolution is we once again are dealing with a marginal airmass. Seems to be a common theme this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't let facts get in the way of a nice persistence rant.... The pattern has definitely changed a bit, no denying that. We are still dealing with a lot of the same issues though as we look at longer range guidance. Lack of cold air, systems cutting west/over us, poorly timed transient highs or 50/50s. The pattern isn’t the same, but the end result might be, for a lot of the same reasons we’ve been dealing with since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The euro verbatim was a good airmass inland and quickly raced to the coast to dump over a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 42 minutes ago, jbenedet said: While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada. I do like how you consider all of the possible outcomes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The pattern has definitely changed a bit, no denying that. We are still dealing with a lot of the same issues though as we look at longer range guidance. Lack of cold air, systems cutting west/over us, poorly timed transient highs or 50/50s. The pattern isn’t the same, but the end result might be, for a lot of the same reasons we’ve been dealing with since December. The cold air thing is a valid point, but it is important to consider that if the storm is strong enough it can make its own cold. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, George001 said: The cold air thing is a valid point, but it is important to consider that if the storm is strong enough it can make its own cold. I believe you are on to something!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro verbatim was a good airmass inland and quickly raced to the coast to dump over a foot. Antecedent airmass is actually decent out ahead of the storm....it's just a question of the block being good enough to force redevelopment soon enough to hold in that airmass....if not, then we erode it and get a pseudo-cutter, but on the Euro, it redevelops and we're good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The pattern has definitely changed a bit, no denying that. We are still dealing with a lot of the same issues though as we look at longer range guidance. Lack of cold air, systems cutting west/over us, poorly timed transient highs or 50/50s. The pattern isn’t the same, but the end result might be, for a lot of the same reasons we’ve been dealing with since December. Yes, fair statement. But there is also a legit shot one of these systems pans out if the block situates favorably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now