8611Blizz Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just your typical late winter NE obliteration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 28 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I thought it was November. Pick any “ember” you like I guess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the plethora of 3-6” events has been very lacking this season. It’s either under 2” or over like 7”. Yes, which is rather odd in itself, Feast or famine really, Out of the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, which is rather odd in itself, Feast or famine really, Out of the norm. Everything bumped north. Taunton climo this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: Everything bumped north. Taunton climo this year. Regression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Like the 52” at 10:1 at IZG. Kuchie has them over 5 feet next two weeks, ha. The block is clearly driving guidance batty..we go from this to futility runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: nice trend over the last few runs over the E US as the block ticks stronger Keep in mind that just 5 days ago, the GEFS mean based NAO forecast had it drop only to zero Feb 26th-Mar 2nd. Today's has it drop way down to a strong -NAO (-1) on Mar 2nd. What will the ensemble mean maps have on them five days from now for the E US and other areas for early March? The point is that this is an extra difficult situation (recent major SSW and another major 60N 10 mb wind drop way down into negative territory projected Feb 26-28) for models that have already been performing poorly this winter even without these big strat changes. We shouldn't assume that they have much of a clue about what's going to happen ten days from now, much less two weeks out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I thought it was November. Pick any “ember” you like I guess. My grandmother always told me growing up, Whatever weather you have on the 3rd of the month, Is how the rest will play out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Everything bumped north. Taunton climo this year. Good point. They either go sizable or don’t go at all down there. That’s what it feels like this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The block is clearly driving guidance batty..we go from this to futility runs. We probably end up middle of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: My grandmother always told me growing up, Whatever weather you have on the 3rd of the month, Is how the rest will play out. Didn’t we have -40 wind chills 2/3? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Good point. They either go sizable or don’t go at all down there. That’s what it feels like this winter. Used to be lots of smaller events. I’ll take the big daddies though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: I thought it was November. Pick any “ember” you like I guess. Yep you’re right. What happens in Mowvember, winter did remember. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Didn’t we have -40 wind chills 2/3? Not temps It was for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The block is clearly driving guidance batty..we go from this to futility runs. It’s like Runaway said, the ceiling is high. But the floor is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 43 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Like the 52” at 10:1 at IZG. Kuchie has them over 5 feet next two weeks, ha. And I get screwed with only 36” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: He is 100% correct, the pattern looks very similar to early December with a strong block and trough out west. However, that doesn’t mean we are going to get the same results. Wavelengths are shorter in March and the ssts aren’t nearly as warm as they were in December. There is also the probability aspect of it, if you get that pattern in Dec 10 times do we go snowless 10 times, or did we get unlucky in a favorable pattern? No pattern has a 100% success rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 The strong shortwave that moved through had some instability with it. We had squalls up north… down south my sister sent me photos and videos of large hail near BGM. She’s in a suburban neighborhood at over 1,000ft, which isn’t that high out there. She caught a close flash of lightning and immediate crack of thunder on video. It almost looks like huge graupel. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take the big daddies though. Is Allison cool with this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I think we see at least one or two of these break snowier. Most locations in SNE are sitting at 8-12” on the season. I have to imagine that we at least double those numbers. Even a 16-24” season is pathetic, but now seems relatively snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Nice little flash freeze tonight, almost went down on me arse, when I let the dog out. Just realized this morning's .25" put me over 20" for the season. Still pathetic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nice little flash freeze tonight, almost went down on me arse, when I let the dog out. Just realized this morning's .25" put me over 20" for the season. Still pathetic. I'm at 21.5" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 And I get screwed with only 36” Next run should show frogs falling from the sky. Like in Iowa in 1882.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 You guys have about double what I have, probably about the same as Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Early March threat on gfs and cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Early March threat on gfs and cmc But the season's over. Same old same old. Pattern's not going to change. That's what you've been doing over and over again the last couple of weeks. I'm not here to call you out, just reminding you what you've been saying. Trust me.... I would still like one big event before this winter's over, But if we don't get it, it'll be fine. There's always next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 52 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: But the season's over. Same old same old. Pattern's not going to change. That's what you've been doing over and over again the last couple of weeks. I'm not here to call you out, just reminding you what you've been saying. Trust me.... I would still like one big event before this winter's over, But if we don't get it, it'll be fine. There's always next year Usually even in terrible years we have one decent region wide snowstorm. I think we got one in 2012. Nothing yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Geez, GEFS lay down about 30" between now and March 4. I'd have my seasonal pretty close to verified. GEPS 34" That seems impossible. What algorithm is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Euro crushes SNE coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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