CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I can't understand for the life of my why there isn't more of a confluent response over the NE US. it doesn't sit right with me, which is why I'm leaning on this correcting. like it's just not a pattern you'd expect there... you'd expect a coast to coast trough with the -EPO in place as well Same thing we saw in December. Ridge folds and helps pin any cold out west. Confluence to our north will barely be enough for cold here except for NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Angry Scooter over every thread this morning. Just handing out discipline like a Nun at parochial school. Whacking them knuckles til they bleed. Just keeping it real. It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s never been more of a warminsta than Fish. The guy has been nauseating this winter Agree...I long ago stopped watching WBZ for weather...they should make Barry Burbank the proverbial godfather offer to entice Burbank to return 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This winter seriously can’t end fast enough. Hopefully we can shuffle into something that is more conducive to sustained spring weather. Some hints at this in the very extended. Second week of March or so What hints? Look’s blocky and active. Probably lots of cold rain for you but you had a rough summeh worrying about the drought. Great to see your water tables filling up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just keeping it real. It is what it is. kind of incredible how bad our luck is this winter. 80-90% of the time that's a blockbuster HL pattern but the Nina is just forcing everything into the Pacific NW. I suppose patterns like what we saw in 2010-11 and March 2018 are a rare breed not going to sleep on it, though. strong west-based -NAOs can do weird shit and I would still be surprised if there wasn't a larger storm somewhere in the March 5-20 timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: no, just think it's funny how consistently awful the GFS is. gave me a laugh this morning It’s not just the GFS, Euro had 2 inches of snow here for this morning on a 12hr forecast and we received zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: It’s not just the GFS, Euro had 2 inches of snow here for this morning on a 12hr forecast and we received zero eh, I've never liked this morning's snow. BL temps are so trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: kind of incredible how bad our luck is this winter. 80-90% of the time that's a blockbuster HL pattern but the Nina is just forcing everything into the Pacific NW. I suppose patterns like what we saw in 2010-11 and March 2018 are a rare breed not going to sleep on it, though. strong west-based -NAOs can do weird shit and I would still be surprised if there wasn't a larger storm somewhere in the March 5-20 timeframe No I’m not sleeping on it or writing anything off, but I’m prepared to be disappointed. That’s all. Just not a fan of the mean verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 hours ago, UnitedWx said: That God Damned pic of him is more annoying than his forecasting style, and that isn't an easy task perhaps he is hoping to be cast in one of those awful movies about a central America uprising??!.....think of the movie Panama.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Angry Scooter over every thread this morning. Just handing out discipline like a Nun at parochial school. Whacking them knuckles til they bleed. Like the nuns on the show 1923 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 So... I'd definitely pump the breaks in vesting in the 28th/1st and anything afterward - if that hasn't already happened. Models are renegotiating the timing of the NAO, a facet I brought up yesterday as a 'delay' in the onset - certainly the ability of any would-be -NAO to exert over the western limb of the domain. That was a transition new motif as of yesterday, and I noticed immediately ... systems were accelerating in the cinema of the models for the period beyond this 23rd scenario. That change in the circulation exertion has become even more coherent ( unfortunately for the 28th...) overnight. All three, EPS/GEFS/GEPs really don't have enough to suggest the 28th will take either a more S friendly track, or slow enough to get its act together before leaving, any longer. As a result, the GEPs resolves this by taking a primary too far up the ST L region before committing to a Miller B reposition in the GOM. Deep too! At 180+ hours, it's down to 982 as a mean, which is about as deep as can be for a typically noisy multi-member average. But that's too late, and the front side ...not sure a SWFE can result from that thermal layout. The EPS is similar actually...only not as deep. But it doesn't matter - there's a real entity in the flow that will also behave like that, too high for even Central NE before Miller B transition, and to too late to vest in - save perhaps moose-fart NE Maine. GFS ...similar again, but not as deep as the EPS... Same essentially, a doesn't matter scenario as the entity it's managing along ends up too far NW with the primary before it the secondary gets going = too late. All of these solution are responding to the back-off of the western exertion/NAO model, one that was a bit more aggressive/present in the runs prior to yesterday. The solutions they do have, and this is evident particularly in the operational GFS' 06z run... appear cold challenged now, too. That's because said circulation control is no longer there - or removing. Without it, we're losing the mechanism to load crucial cold thickness between successive events. Yeah... all and all I'd say this was a butt boning series overnight ...and another in a long and tiresome examples of why the NAO cannot be relied upon and is also overrated. Aside from the fact, the NAO is actually an illusion in a philosophical way...because its modes are really controlled by way of the non-linear wave function from the flow coming across the Pacific and N/A... so when we look for an NAO, it's really more of a beacon for if the Pacific non-linear wave function is transmitting a signal.. blah blah blah Anyway, long history of NAO bamboozling so not just for the 28th/1st ...I'd also keep all this shirking by the model in mind as we attempt to peer into a March that frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if it hosted a 80F warm burst like DC... In a lot of ways, this current 23rd ordeal and the PV advent ...compressing the field enough to cause it, is really merely interfering with our 2018 redux. And I don't have any faith at all, one can't succeed next month when the sun really is getting cooking and the NAO ( or Pacific...which ever one needs to use ), continues bring winter enthusiasts back from dead, only to send them through this tortured hell of 'it can still happen' LOL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I can't understand for the life of my why there isn't more of a confluent response over the NE US. it doesn't sit right with me, which is why I'm leaning on this correcting. like it's just not a pattern you'd expect there... you'd expect a coast to coast trough with the -EPO in place as well DJFM will probably have some record deviation of the epo ridge foldover. Not sure how it can be calculated but it’s impressive how we couldn’t pop a +pna at all with such a persistent -epo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2nd half of March will deliver in SNE. NAO response + rapidly shortening wavelengths equal snow potential. There's already hints of this in the LR OP runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 2nd half of March will deliver in SNE. NAO response + rapidly shortening wavelengths equal snow potential. There's already hints of this in the LR OP runs. There’s been Hints since December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: There’s been Hints since December. December and March are completely different. For one you don't need a +PNA in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 50 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 2nd half of March will deliver in SNE. NAO response + rapidly shortening wavelengths equal snow potential. There's already hints of this in the LR OP runs. Hah, trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Don’t worry…12z will be different yet again and that will quell the angst. At this point it’s been so bad for most in SNE, it can’t get any worse, just more of the same. 2 degrees in St Agatha. Enjoying the big winter up here, and will be coming back again in 2nd week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Enjoy the rain Exactly Sad times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Is white Juan coming? Well, I tossed the analog out there bc is was a big storm....that whiffed us....$hit for brains lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: This look is meh. Thanks for pinning winter out west -NAO. Only hope is that the confluence northeast of us is enough. Otherwise it’s probably more congrats NNE. Been my worry all along. its a lesson that not every -NAO is a good -NAO. Hopefully we've learned that lesson and wont' need to experience it again for awhile. Although up here, the -NAO worries me usually as I send my congrats south. I think we are seeing late Jan all over again but maybe it can nudge another 100 miles south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Didn’t March 2018 also have a trough out west? There can be a trough in both the east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: its a lesson that not every -NAO is a good -NAO. Hopefully we've learned that lesson and wont' need to experience it again for awhile. Although up here, the -NAO worries me usually as I send my congrats south. I think we are seeing late Jan all over again but maybe it can nudge another 100 miles south? Neg NAO raises the ceiling, which is why I like it, but doesn't guarantee said ceiling will be reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, George001 said: Didn’t March 2018 also have a trough out west? Devil is in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Like the nuns on the show 1923 Lol I am watching the latest episode right now. Its brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Neg NAO raises the ceiling, which is why I like it, but doesn't guarantee said ceiling will be reached. and sometimes the floor just falls out from under ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Just keeping it real. It is what it is. Lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Now this is the panty dropper. This look. Not what I saw last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol ok When is part two of the orange train arriving for winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Neg NAO raises the ceiling, which is why I like it, but doesn't guarantee said ceiling will be reached. All about how the block retrogrades. If it sort of stays shunted south of greenland, then it’s not gonna help us much and it will prob stay fairly mild. If it can retro into greenland, then you will get a better response south of it in SE Canada and New England which would prob give us several opportunities. But if it’s one of these deals where it meanders over the North Atlantic and then tries to poke into the Davis strait from the south, that’s mostly hot garbage in a -PNA. Most of the uglier solutions are some version of that where the fun solutions are not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: When is part two of the orange train arriving for winter? Cabooses north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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