HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 On 1/28/2023 at 6:28 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I will buy you a 4 pack of Julius (or whatever you prefer) at Treehouse Charlton if I don’t get at least 5 more inches of snow by April 15 Hey @Damage In Tolland Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 HERPES goes nuts over SNE at end of its run (48 hours). That would extrapolate nicely on that axis. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wasn't there a big ocean deal in March 1999 that backed up and hit the cape? That was late Feb 1999. Actually hit all the way back into central areas but the Cape got the worst of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That was late Feb 1999. Actually hit all the way back into central areas but the Cape got the worst of it. I’ll add that we did get a couple of good events in Mar ‘99 too as that month turned very blocky…but the big ocean storm was Feb 25-26, 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Gfs kind of shows you what not to do with the block lol. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs kind of shows you what not to do with the block lol. What happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’ll add that we did get a couple of good events in Mar ‘99 too as that month turned very blocky…but the big ocean storm was Feb 25-26, 1999 One a few days earlier...2001 few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 GFS looked decent to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs kind of shows you what not to do with the block lol. Whatever it did, it seemed to work out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs kind of shows you what not to do with the block lol. Worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What happens? Probably liking nao with ser worries from Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Where's Brooklyn to tell us how good the GEFS looks 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Where's Brooklyn to tell us how good the GEFS looks We need the Pope on board 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow...this end of month bomb is in flux and trending... I actually gave this a shout out over in the 23rd thread... ha - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully the ridge retrogrades just a shade more than shown which would make that event even more favorable. It’s kind of a tight squeeze at the moment where the redevelopment potentially comes too late. The 2/28 signal is actually a classic Archambault event for the NAO transitioning from positive to negative straight out of the original published paper in the early/mid 2000s. Yup... that signal ( actually begins 27 and end Mar 3 if want to be fair to the totality of thing ...) is an 'index-scaled' scenario. I think I might have even mentioned that early in the day but I've been doing this like a mad man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What happens? Just don’t like how the PV and troughing shoved west again. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Whatever it did, it seemed to work out anyway. Well was thinking more beyond based on how it looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup... that signal ( actually begins 27 and end Mar 3 if want to be fair to the totality of thing ...) is an 'index-scaled' scenario. I think I might have even mentioned that early in the day but I've been doing this like a mad man. My first big storm window from Novie whiffed in January, like that whole portion of my outlook...but my second window is from 3/1 to 3/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My first big storm window from Novie whiffed in January, like that whole portion of my outlook...but my second window is from 3/1 to 3/15 mm..it's not likely to be protracted - as in multi threat spanning a week to 10 days... Probably, once we get one it's done. The NAO will likely retrograde and pin our beast in place and then the two wane in tandem... as the storm drifts away kind of thing. May be another NAO pulse 10 days later in March - I'm just basing that idea on the seasonal lag/blocking tendencies we've seen as a repeating spring theme over the last decade. I feel that is tied into changes in the global circulation mechanics which i won't get into here.. But it has been reproducible, regardless of the exact cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm..it's not likely to be protracted - as in multi threat spanning a week to 10 days... Probably, once we get one it's done. The NAO will likely retrograde and pin our beast in place and then the two wane in tandem... as the storm drifts away kind of thing. May be another NAO pulse 10 days later in March - I'm just basing that idea on the seasonal lag/blocking tendencies we've seen as a repeating spring theme over the last decade. I feel that tied into changes in the global circulation mechanics which i won't get into here.. But it has been reproducible, regardless of the exact cause. I don't mean the whole period...just within that window. Obviously we can narrow it down now, but at 4 months lead, I just try to get it within two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Before the storm gets here Thursday it does a good number on Minn and Wisc with some frigid air following behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, George001 said: We need the Pope on board If I was in S Sne I would want Bob on board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If I was in S Sne I would want Bob on board Ba-Ba-Ba-Ba-Bob-ara Ann 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Some top-notch AFD writing out in MPX. Not quite “bombogenesis, baby!” Thought. A quick note before we dive into the upcoming system: I understand that this event will attract a larger audience than a normal forecast discussion would receive. With that in mind, some may struggle to understand probabilities and the statistics side of this discussion, but I`ll do my best to use layman`s terms when possible. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+ percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right" scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow. In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, Slantstick2001 said: The castle on long lake St Agatha. Home for the week! Just a bit of snow up here. Some solid 10' bank's from the drifting a couple weeks ago on the roads along open fields from a couple weeks ago and the fresh 12"+yesterday.Feels good to be in a place where it's winter! Hope you get 10' more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Just saw a mosquito at the in-laws in Windsor. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: Just saw a mosquito at the in-laws in Windsor. Smh There was one on the outside of my mother-in-law's windshield today when we left the house. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 2 hours ago, Slantstick2001 said: The castle on long lake St Agatha. Home for the week! Just a bit of snow up here. Some solid 10' bank's from the drifting a couple weeks ago on the roads along open fields and the fresh 12"+yesterday.Feels good to be in a place where it's winter! Hey neighbor…lol. You sledding? I’d hope so. This place does winter better than any place in N.E. ….Hands down. N. Aroostook What a place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Euro pretty close with the big dog. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Bottoming out at 46F this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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