RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Seems too young, but he did lose a little control during White Juan. When you pull an all nighter caring for a crying shitting little alien while crunching data on the seasonal closure, you’re bound to get a little saucy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Hell of a cold tuck on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: yea Go back a few frames 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 That was a pretty frigid 06z GFS run for 2/23. Look at the surface too. Upper teens in interior MA N of pike. Won’t see much liquid on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hell of a cold tuck on the euro. U10s here Thu afternoon while S Jersey is flirting with 80° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Where all this gone wild behavior come from ? Pattern looks the same with troughing out west and pacific mess and extra stout SE ridge. That bulge won’t be denied 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Where all this gone wild behavior come from ? Pattern looks the same with troughing out west and pacific mess That’s not where the change is coming from. It’s coming from the PV pressing early on and then later it’s the retrograding NAO block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where all this gone wild behavior come from ? Pattern looks the same with troughing out west and pacific mess Enough blocking and cold to our north. It’s a good gradient look. Here’s the EPS for Thu morning. Looks like a torch for us right? Obviously it’ll be snowing under some of those pretty oranges. The devil is in the details. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Enough blocking and cold to our north. It’s a good gradient look. Here’s the EPS for Thu morning. Looks like a torch for us right? Obviously it’ll be snowing under some of those pretty oranges. The devil is in the details. The devil went down to Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s not where the change is coming from. It’s coming from the PV pressing early on and then later it’s the retrograding NAO block. I just don’t think the block will happen . I guess that’s my issue with this whole snowy Morch idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just don’t think the block will happen . I guess that’s my issue with this whole snowy Morch idea. Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible. Good consensus amongst ensemble guidance as well…EPS, GEFS, GEPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The devil went down to Georgia? WWLT…at least for this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: WWLT…at least for this week Can’t decode that one other than We I’m just hoping and praying it’s cold enough here for some ice this week . I need it to lift spirits. I can’t take another 34.2 rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can’t decode that one other than We I’m just hoping and praying it’s cold enough here for some ice this week . I need it to lift spirits. I can’t take another 34.2 rainer Wish we lived there? You’ll get some frozen first then the snowers come after. You’ll be on cloud nine shortly so get your maga blanket handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can’t decode that one other than We I’m just hoping and praying it’s cold enough here for some ice this week . I need it to lift spirits. I can’t take another 34.2 rainer Wish we. It’s late Feb so who cares? I think you’re more worried about losing to Ray again than the actual rain possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 52 minutes ago, dendrite said: Did Ray really just pull an all-nighter? I had the same thought . All nighter for a period that’s likely to produce 2 inches of snow and maybe some light glaze. We salute you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wish we. It’s late Feb so who cares? I think you’re more worried about losing to Ray again than the actual rain possibility? I don’t care about that . I honestly don’t recall the last time he had more snow than here in a winter. It’s been at least several years. I just don’t want anymore rain. If it has to rain, let’s freeze it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Block will happen. Pretty well modeled I’d say. Details TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I had the same thought . All nighter for a period that’s likely to produce 2 inches of snow and maybe some light glaze. We salute you. Meh. I used to do the night shift with my kids when they were infants. 2hr power naps, change a diaper, put them back to sleep, and peak at overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enough blocking and cold to our north. It’s a good gradient look. Here’s the EPS for Thu morning. Looks like a torch for us right? Obviously it’ll be snowing under some of those pretty oranges. The devil is in the details. Like Ronnie James says It’s like Heaven and Hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Go back a few frames yep, and we still see the haves/have nots in a similar spot to the "tenor of the season". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I had the same thought . All nighter for a period that’s likely to produce 2 inches of snow and maybe some light glaze. We salute you. He’s got an infant…if he’s up changing diapers and dealing with a crying baby, why not look at some modeling while you’re at it? And for once, look at what could be transpiring shortly, instead of just constantly degrading every single potential? It’s sucked to date, and Maybe it produces less than your forecast 2”, but the changes seem to be trending closer, and that’s all we know currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible. I don't see a signal like this evaporating. this is probably the best way to get a legit west-based block. it's strengthening, moving forward in time, and bolstered by the effects of the SSW will we get anything out of it? who knows, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a large storm if this block does indeed come to fruition 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Be careful about expecting inches of IP anywhere...seldom works out like that. Be careful expecting >0.5” of IP always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd literally give my left nut to verify member e30 of the EPS with the 952mb over the BM. With soon to be 3 kids, you don’t need it anymore anyways. Hell, naught as well give both for the real Hail Mary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't see a signal like this evaporating. this is probably the best way to get a legit west-based block. it's strengthening, moving forward in time, and bolstered by the effects of the SSW will we get anything out of it? who knows, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a large storm if this block does indeed come to fruition It’s a good look verbatim. Hopefully something comes about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just saw the gfs. Jesus that is cold haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Decided to get away for a couple of days even though we all have colds haha. Just need sanity. My wife works with someone that has a place on Mountain View lake basically right at Sunapee. Nice to see winter here. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: yep, and we still see the haves/have nots in a similar spot to the "tenor of the season". Probably. But at least something to watch besides mud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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