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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Where all this gone wild behavior come from ? Pattern looks the same with troughing out west and pacific mess 

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That’s not where the change is coming from. It’s coming from the PV pressing early on and then later it’s the retrograding NAO block. 

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Where all this gone wild behavior come from ? Pattern looks the same with troughing out west and pacific mess 

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Enough blocking and cold to our north. It’s a good gradient look. Here’s the EPS for Thu morning. Looks like a torch for us right? Obviously it’ll be snowing under some of those pretty oranges. The devil is in the details.

image.png

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:49 PM, dendrite said:

Enough blocking and cold to our north. It’s a good gradient look. Here’s the EPS for Thu morning. Looks like a torch for us right? Obviously it’ll be snowing under some of those pretty oranges. The devil is in the details.

image.png

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The devil went down to Georgia?

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I just don’t think the block will happen . I guess that’s my issue with this whole snowy Morch idea. 

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Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible. 

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible. 

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Good consensus amongst ensemble guidance as well…EPS, GEFS, GEPS

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Can’t decode that one other than We

I’m just hoping and praying it’s cold enough here for some ice  this week . I need it to lift spirits. I can’t take another 34.2 rainer 

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Wish we lived there? 
 

You’ll get some frozen first then the snowers come after. You’ll be on cloud nine shortly so get your maga blanket handy.

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Can’t decode that one other than We

I’m just hoping and praying it’s cold enough here for some ice  this week . I need it to lift spirits. I can’t take another 34.2 rainer 

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Wish we.

It’s late Feb so who cares? I think you’re more worried about losing to Ray again than the actual rain possibility?

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  On 2/19/2023 at 1:02 PM, dendrite said:

Wish we.

It’s late Feb so who cares? I think you’re more worried about losing to Ray again than the actual rain possibility?

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I don’t care about that . I honestly don’t recall the last time he had more snow than here in a winter. It’s been at least several years. I just don’t want anymore rain. If it has to rain, let’s freeze it 

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  On 2/19/2023 at 1:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I had the same thought :lol:.

 

All nighter for a period that’s likely to produce 2 inches of snow and maybe some light glaze. We salute you.

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Meh. I used to do the night shift with my kids when they were infants. 2hr power naps, change a diaper, put them back to sleep, and peak at overnight runs. 

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:49 PM, dendrite said:

Enough blocking and cold to our north. It’s a good gradient look. Here’s the EPS for Thu morning. Looks like a torch for us right? Obviously it’ll be snowing under some of those pretty oranges. The devil is in the details.

image.png

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Like Ronnie James says It’s like Heaven and Hell

 

 

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  On 2/19/2023 at 1:09 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I had the same thought :lol:.

 

All nighter for a period that’s likely to produce 2 inches of snow and maybe some light glaze. We salute you.

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He’s got an infant…if he’s up changing diapers and dealing with a crying baby, why not look at some modeling while you’re at it?  
 

And for once, look at what could be transpiring shortly, instead of just constantly degrading every single potential?  It’s sucked to date, and Maybe it produces less than your forecast 2”, but the changes seem to be trending closer, and that’s all we know currently.  

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  On 2/19/2023 at 12:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ok that’s fair…but it’s getting established already by D10, so we’d prob need a quick reversal in guidance for it not to materialize. I don’t find that likely…but it’s still possible. 

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I don't see a signal like this evaporating. this is probably the best way to get a legit west-based block. it's strengthening, moving forward in time, and bolstered by the effects of the SSW

will we get anything out of it? who knows, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a large storm if this block does indeed come to fruition

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1676764800-1677520800-1678060800-20-2.thumb.gif.eeccd9d06579ee11c5755a75140079c2.gif

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  On 2/19/2023 at 1:20 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

I don't see a signal like this evaporating. this is probably the best way to get a legit west-based block. it's strengthening, moving forward in time, and bolstered by the effects of the SSW

will we get anything out of it? who knows, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a large storm if this block does indeed come to fruition

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1676764800-1677520800-1678060800-20-2.thumb.gif.eeccd9d06579ee11c5755a75140079c2.gif

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It’s a good look verbatim. Hopefully something comes about. 

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