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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

At some point you’ve got to just admit the winter was a bust. The winter, all the forecasts etc. Continuing to post that things look snowy and confidence of snowy outcomes becomes like the fabled boy who cried wolf. There’s nothing more I’d like than a few snowstorms, but I think that is very unlikely outside of NNE. That’s my opinion and take based on what I see. You and Luke could of course be right 

I could be wrong, too....but the inverse of the boy who cried wolf is persistence forecasting going astray. The best option is to just make an informed call and I feel as though I have done that.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At some point you’ve got to just admit the winter was a bust. The winter, all the forecasts etc. Continuing to post that things look snowy and confidence of snowy outcomes becomes like the fabled boy who cried wolf. There’s nothing more I’d like than a few snowstorms, but I think that is very unlikely outside of NNE. That’s my opinion and take based on what I see. You and Luke could of course be right 

The winter sucked no doubt but you have to break out of it and forecast what’s in front of you. We’re not in the all in phase yet but if you can’t keep an open mind to favorable cross guidance support, you’ll lose more than you’ll ‘win’ by remaining too stubborn to change. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could be wrong, too....but the inverse of the boy who cried wolf is persistence forecasting going astray. The best option is to just make an informed call and I feel as though I have done that.

No qualms with that . All sides have laid out their reasoning. Some will be right and some wrong . 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At some point you’ve got to just admit the winter was a bust. The winter, all the forecasts etc. Continuing to post that things look snowy and confidence of snowy outcomes becomes like the fabled boy who cried wolf. There’s nothing more I’d like than a few snowstorms, but I think that is very unlikely outside of NNE. That’s my opinion and take based on what I see. You and Luke could of course be right 

Boy who cried wolf.  I was just thinking that the other day.  Or Lucy pulling the football out from Charlie Brown.  I conceded to futile mid January and am sticking to that.

Currently 37 and sleet.

 

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Ha  'cept, I don't think anyone remotely cogent has proclaimed aspects as looking encouragingly snowy, or whatever.

What was said by many is that patterning may improve - folks tend to do that... They hit hyper drive on that kind of thing, then it turns into a d-drip let down when the 'odds' don't play out.  And it's annoying too, because they construct their memories around that accelerated interpretation..

Anyway, the pattern this next week is actually horrible for snow.  It is...  Let's get that straight.   What we have, or is modeled rather ..., is a PV anomaly setting over top said horrible pattern.   That changes the landscape a little, and what we're seeing in the operational runs is tug-o-war along the axis between those two titanic forces.  Subtle oscillations N or S scaffolds where confluence will build sfc high... as well as guide alone where that wind torpedo rides over the ridge...

Typically we don't really talk snow when a S/W curves west of ORD ...rides along the border, then cuts ESE through central NE - that's the S/W trajectory in the means wrt to late next week...  

It's all about where the slope of cold wedge ends up in the lower troposphere...  Very precarious.  

Yeah...that is a giant hunk of shit pattern actually... It just happens to be one that is setting up a polished option...  Probably?  it's more like to be an IP/ice event with a narrow stripe of snow astride... But, I also wonder if the S/W is also going to start showing up weaker in future guidance - the old magnification correction.   

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The winter sucked no doubt but you have to break out of it and forecast what’s in front of you. We’re not in the all in phase yet but if you can’t keep an open mind to favorable cross guidance support, you’ll lose more than you’ll ‘win’ by remaining too stubborn to change. 

Hey.. if I thought things looked great and the pattern was changing , I’d be on your boat . I just see the same gradient pattern , blocking that probably won’t happen , and a constant-PNA. I think the differences lie in that you believe the members that show the block. I do not 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey.. if I thought things looked great and the pattern was changing , I’d be on your boat . I just see the same gradient pattern , blocking that probably won’t happen , and a constant-PNA. I think the differences lie in that you believe the members that show the block. I do not 

Yea. I’m not that worried about a -pna, it’s more about the atlantic now. We’ve had good stretches and big snowers with a -pna/-nao. 

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43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The winter sucked no doubt but you have to break out of it and forecast what’s in front of you. We’re not in the all in phase yet but if you can’t keep an open mind to favorable cross guidance support, you’ll lose more than you’ll ‘win’ by remaining too stubborn to change. 

The forum gets to be almost like sports team divided… like forecasting is a team sport.  No matter what guidance shows, if one has already picked a side of team to be a fan of, it’s not going to move the needle.

The “yeah I know it shows this but I don’t believe it” type stuff is like why even look or discuss the models?  If you only believe what you want to see and disbelieve everything else, then might as well just log off and do another hobby, ha.

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