CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is able to ooze down the arctic airmass a bit which produces a much colder outcome. It’s really cold in the low levels. It has upper teens and low 20s over the interior of SNE during sleet. Nice tuck here. I can't do it........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nice tuck here. I can't do it........ 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice tuck here. I can't do it........ She's not letting you out til like late April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Every time I see that meme, I just think of Ginxy opening up that arc (pretend it's the euro or whatever) and going....it is beautiful!! I am dying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 blocking is becoming stronger and moving up in time. this is compared to 12z yesterday that is a very strong signal for this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 It is beautiful!! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: blocking is becoming stronger and moving up in time. this is compared to 12z yesterday that is a very strong signal for this range Yeah let’s get that to move SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 With such a negative PNA this thing has nowhere to go but north . 6 -7 days to trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah let’s get that to move SW. nice to see the retrogression on the mean, too. that is legit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 I'm also looking at the indies and it looks like if we get that block, there most likely won't be SE ridge issues. the vast majority of members with a SE ridge are the ones that keep the block over Iceland or don't develop it at all only a couple members with the blocking truly link it with a SE ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: She's not letting you out til like late April LFG! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah let’s get that to move SW. 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm also looking at the indies and it looks like if we get that block, there most likely won't be SE ridge issues. the vast majority of members with a SE ridge are the ones that keep the block over Iceland or don't develop it at all At least this is forming in a classic manner…when we get big UK/Scandi ridge retrograding into an NAO block, it is more believable than other evolutions. Sometimes we’ll get duped by shallower wave-breaking events in the North Atlantic or Labrador and they seem to fall apart easier in guidance. Hopefully this one is real. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'm also looking at the indies and it looks like if we get that block, there most likely won't be SE ridge issues. the vast majority of members with a SE ridge are the ones that keep the block over Iceland or don't develop it at all only a couple members with the blocking truly link it with a SE ridge That would help push the ridge response to the SW too. It may not lead to a big +PNA but enough to kick the deep -PNA in it’s face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2/25-26 has been showing up quite a bit too on several different runs. Seems like from ensemble guidance, aside from 2/23, there are likely chances around 2/25-26 and 2/28-3/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Next week is definitely looking a little bit wintery over the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least this is forming in a classic manner…when we get big UK/Scandi ridge retrograding into an NAO block, it is more believable than other evolutions. Sometimes we’ll get duped by shallower wave-breaking events in the North Atlantic or Labrador and they seem to fall apart easier in guidance. Hopefully this one is real. i mean... this is kinda sorta how that December block formed. same kinda Scandi retrograding block, and it got picked up around the same time I agree with you in that this is how you'd want to see a block evolve. it's certainly more reliable than the shitty wave-break stuff. the SSW also bolsters the case for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Sleet/freezing rain for hours? Oh f@@k that. Snow or no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Sleet/freezing rain for hours? Oh f@@k that. Snow or no. I’d take it if we can get 3 or 4 inches on the front end. Then sleet and ZR on top to solidify the pack for the next threats….I’d like a couple weeks of wintry appeal at least if we’re not gonna be able to cook up a big dog. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Is there any possibility this could be an all out icestorm for SNE? Just like a straight zr storm ? I’d almost prefer that over snow to rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I’d take it if we an get 3 or 4 inches on the front end. Then sleet and ZR on top to solidify the pack for the next threats….I’d like a couple weeks of wintry appeal at least if we’re not gonna be able to cook up a big dog. Depends on a number of factors, timing, amounts, ect, but in general that type of storm causes many more headaches than it's worth. It would be fitting for this winter to have a kitchen sink storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there any possibility this could be an all out icestorm for SNE? Just like a straight zr storm ? I’d almost prefer that over snow to rain Euro was kind of close but it was too cold in the low levels for ice. The cold layer was too thick so it would prob pound sleet at 20 degrees most of the storm. But can’t rule out an icier solution in the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d take it if we can get 3 or 4 inches on the front end. Then sleet and ZR on top to solidify the pack for the next threats….I’d like a couple weeks of wintry appeal at least if we’re not gonna be able to cook up a big dog. Verbatim the euro gives us a healthy front ender, a pelting, then light snow/snizzle. I’d take that. Euro with a nice follow up event a few days later. Caveat I don’t have access to euro soundings so I’m guided by H7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Nice thunderstorm this morning. Temperature is now up to 43F. CF shortly I'm going to post this in the general obs thread too. Wow, I am amazed how much colder I have been compared to places like Concord NH which is only 35 miles south of me. Boston is 100 miles away but the climate is so much warmer down there. I retain snow cover well and CAD always seems to overperform. I just realized that I have not hit 50F yet this year! Some close calls this week but surely not the spring weather so close by. I know there are a lot of frustrated snow lovers but a salt free roads and bare ground would be nice to see. My acreage faces south and finally we are getting some bare ground but everyplace around me is still snow covered. This snow is so durable. Below if a graph of my temps so far this year. Guess I'm going to have to wait for my first 50F! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Verbatim the euro gives us a healthy front ender, a pelting, then light snow/snizzle. I’d take that. Euro with a nice follow up event a few days later. Ya nice big sprawling high on euro In just glad it came back south after yesterday’s North push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya nice big sprawling high on euro In just glad it came back south after yesterday’s North push At least ski country is looking safer. Would suck for them to get a rainer during vacation week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Wolfie has to be balls deep in snow right now . Very cold day in caribou and nice snow storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least ski country is looking safer. Would suck for them to get a rainer during vacation week. Ya I was holding off on buying more tickets but I think they will go on a decent run thru early to mid March . The Stowe snow stake should be on the up and up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 I shot down from 57 to 50 in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is there any possibility this could be an all out icestorm for SNE? Just like a straight zr storm ? I’d almost prefer that over snow to rain I swear, you must have fallen on your head somewhere and never recovered fully ... lol You mean to tell me you wouldn't care if we had an intense ice storm which would break or kill trees and bushes, bring down wires, possibly do damage to homes... I will send it all to your house. You can have all of that. I'll take snow and I'll take sleet.. I do not want ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: With such a negative PNA this thing has nowhere to go but north . 6 -7 days to trend At this time and in this setup, it is all about how the block retrogrades... if it diverts a bit southwest, colder/snowier/icier trends would win out. One way or the other, I think the next 2 model runs will start locking on to the final outcome with regards to the block. Not a lot of wiggle room given southeast ridge & -PNA so will need to block to make it all happen? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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