February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still have at least another couple hours of filtered sun....not sure if we crack 70F somewhere, but it should get close...esp down in interior SE CT where the sun looks the best right now.

Ya more clouds than I was hoping for but the rain should hold off til after 4-5pm.  Already some spots in nyc metro in the upper 60s. Mid 60s Fairfield county and central Rhode Island. 

[jbenedet]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Still have at least another couple hours of filtered sun....not sure if we crack 70F somewhere, but it should get close...esp down in interior SE CT where the sun looks the best right now.

@Sey-Mour Snow scared me out of my 70 call showing all those overcast graphics. 

Nah jk. It was really the lack of short term guidance support. *Nothing* came around to show this potential. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know, I thought 60s here yesterday. Looked like some cirrus which isn’t exactly a big inhibitor. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@Sey-Mour Snow scared me out of my 70 call showing all those overcast graphics. 

Nah jk. It was really the lack of short term guidance support. *Nothing* came around to show this potential. 

 

 

Sorry that was just for those calling for 100% sunny skies.. it was more for down here with possible rain moving on after midday but that has been delayed.  it’s def cloudy but high clouds for now, temps having no problem rising. your call was spot on kudos. I’ll enjoy the 70ish temperatures. 

[jbenedet]

I had PSM hitting 65. That looks solid.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know, I thought 60s here yesterday. Looked like some cirrus which isn’t exactly a big inhibitor. 

Gorgeous spring day. Warminsters in full nudity all over.Slapped from outie to way inny Sat morning with windchills low teens

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Sorry that was just for those calling for 100% sunny skies.. it’s def cloudy but high clouds for now, temps having no problem rising. your call was spot on kudos. I’ll enjoy the 70ish temperatures. 

Thanks. Yea it wasn't a jab. More of a re-analysis. 

As we closed in, I didn't see any guidance trend towards my thoughts, so I bailed due to the combination of those factors. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

I have friends riding Mili north right now and they say conditions are mint, I was going to ride this weekend but just bought a new truck and picking it up Saturday.

What did you get.  Retire the 3500?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gorgeous spring day. Warminsters in full nudity all over.Slapped from outie to way inny Sat morning with windchills low teens

Tomorrow's cold front is going to be impressive....30+ degree temp drops inside of 6 hours on the table.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still have at least another couple hours of filtered sun....not sure if we crack 70F somewhere, but it should get close...esp down in interior SE CT where the sun looks the best right now.

We've been slammed shut for temp rise for an hr and half.  This cloud density is just enough to cap matters. 

56 flat-lined.   Looking up stream, most may be on borrowed time with this - not sure this 300 mb milk is going to thin looking up stream.  

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Speaking of shallow inversions… last night was wild around here with huge swings.

From 32F to 53F in one hour at MVL.  Fell back into the 30s later too.

Nothing like a puff of wind and 21 degree rise in temps.

34 to 56 here so far. Some stations close by, but a couple hundred feet higher with lows almost 10F higher last night. Super shallow invesion. Only some banks left, so it wasn't  snowpack related either. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

We've been slammed shut for temp rise for an hr and half.  This cloud density is just enough to cap matters. 

56 flat-lined.   Looking up stream, most may be on borrowed time with this - not sure this 300 mb milk is going to thin looking up stream.  

Clouds have gotten thicker here too but still getting some weak filtered sun. CT/RI/SE MA look the best right now for thinner cloud cover.

[Modfan2]

64F and filtered sun here in Brooklyn CT

[jbenedet]

Looks like a low in the mid 20's Saturday morning.

For most, a shock from where we have been, but normal to slightly AN.

North of Winne looks cold though. 

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What did you get.  Retire the 3500?

It was time, Selling the 2005 Chevy 2500HD Duramax outright as its 18yrs old but only has 121,000 miles, Bought this 2023 GMC Sierra 2500HD gas.

[Ginx snewx]

Lots of folks chatting up that winter is over today. Couldn't break their hearts. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Selling the 2005 Chevy 2500HD Duramax outright as its 18yrs old but only has 121,000 miles, Bought this 2023 GMC 2500HD gas.

Gorgeous that's right we both had 2005 2500s. Mine had 255k miles at 10 years old when I was contacted in 2015 by a dealer who said they needed my truck in Boston for snow plow removal. I got 6 K over book value and a 4 K reduction in price of my Colorado 

[SJonesWX]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was time, Selling the 2005 Chevy 2500HD Duramax outright as its 18yrs old but only has 121,000 miles, Bought this 2023 GMC Sierra 2500HD gas.

the new Sierras are super nice. I have a 2021 Sierra Elevation. Love it, and decent MPG. i average around 21 mpg, roughly 50/50 hiway/city

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like a low in the mid 20's Saturday morning.

For most, a shock from where we have been, but normal to slightly AN.

North of Winne looks cold though. 

I'm amazed that my low here was +31

thirty  f   one    

 ...above normal.  Which, ...you know, if we had a southerly gale type Lakes cutter raging on, we could do that and have in the past.  But this?  dead calm, open clear skies...

That's really something for Feb 16.

But a subtlety to that:   ..once again, our lows pull the most weight on above normal, when it is above normal...

I find this very specific aspect to be both consistent across all seasons... patterns, and permutations in the nature of our weather. 

The question is, why?   It's a fascinating discussion/Q for scientific debate (imho-), though my guess is... heh, given the subject matter, few would engage or be willing to?  

Anyway, why the low temperatures own the ballast of "above normalness" ...I don't 'think' is a CC issue?    Then we'd have to get into how much or little... Like CC may control 10% of that weirdness ...20...30, flip a f'n coin.    Maybe it is all connect to DP... yeah you know - is the DP above normal, in all circumstances except for freak direct arctic inserts?? 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lots of folks chatting up that winter is over today. Couldn't break their hearts. 

If somehow the changes in the arctic fail to deliver, then its over... I don't expect much help from the Pacific side...la nina has ended up more west-based than I expected, which probaby explains to some degree that lack of poleward Aleutian ridging this season.

[BrianW]

67 here in Branford. I think 70 might happen at HVN, BDR, and GON. 

[Lava Rock]

58f

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gorgeous that's right we both had 2005 2500s. Mine had 255k miles at 10 years old when I was contacted in 2015 by a dealer who said they needed my truck in Boston for snow plow removal. I got 6 K over book value and a 4 K reduction in price of my Colorado 

I already have a couple guys wanting my Duramax, It wont last long ..........

[HIPPYVALLEY]

60 in jeopardy here I think.  Overcast.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm amazed that my low here was +31

thirty  f   one    

 ...above normal.   But a subtlety to that:   ..once again, our lows pull the most weight on above normal, when it is above normal...

I find this very specific aspect to be both consistent across all seasons... patterns, and permutations in the nature of our weather. 

The question is, why?   It's a fascinating discussion/Q for scientific debate (imho-), though my guess is... heh, given the subject matter, few would engage or be willing to?  

Anyway, why the low temperatures own the ballast of "above normalness" ...I don't 'think' is a CC issue?    Then we'd have to get into how much or little... Like CC may control 10% of that weirdness ...20...30, flip a f'n coin.    Maybe it is all connect to DP... yeah you know - is the DP above normal, in all circumstances except for freak direct arctic inserts?? 

 

Nighttime lows are known entity in CC literature to be more robust than daytime maxes. It makes sense because increased water vapor reduces the efficiency of radiational cooling.

Now this winter, it has been exacerbated by the obscene amount of cloud cover we've had....I think January was the cloudiest month on record for several sites in New England. You get tons of clouds, and your low temps are going to be really high compared to baseline climo. Adding onto that, you get a feedback loop of sorts in places far enough south where the ground has had trouble freezing....so you get a ground with high moisture content in the soil which also inhibits radiational cooling somewhat on the clear nights we actually do get. In a more normal winter, our ground would be pretty frozen and dried out.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

the new Sierras are super nice. I have a 2021 Sierra Elevation. Love it, and decent MPG. i average around 21 mpg, roughly 50/50 hiway/city

Couple of buddies of mine have them with the Denali pkg and love them.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nighttime lows are known entity in CC literature to be more robust than daytime maxes. It makes sense because increased water vapor reduces the efficiency of radiational cooling.

Now this winter, it has been exacerbated by the obscene amount of cloud cover we've had....I think January was the cloudiest month on record for several sites in New England. You get tons of clouds, and your low temps are going to be really high compared to baseline climo. Adding onto that, you get a feedback loop of sorts in places far enough south where the ground has had trouble freezing....so you get a ground with high moisture content in the soil which also inhibits radiational cooling somewhat on the clear nights we actually do get. In a more normal winter, our ground would be pretty frozen and dried out.

I think some of this is due to the eruption last year....its exacerbated the issue.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nighttime lows are known entity in CC literature to be more robust than daytime maxes. It makes sense because increased water vapor reduces the efficiency of radiational cooling.

Now this winter, it has been exacerbated by the obscene amount of cloud cover we've had....I think January was the cloudiest month on record for several sites in New England. You get tons of clouds, and your low temps are going to be really high compared to baseline climo. Adding onto that, you get a feedback loop of sorts in places far enough south where the ground has had trouble freezing....so you get a ground with high moisture content in the soil which also inhibits radiational cooling somewhat on the clear nights we actually do get. In a more normal winter, our ground would be pretty frozen and dried out.

Yeah...I know -

I'm was just sort of water coolering that stuff there.  

Fact of that matter is...  theta-e rises with C02, mathematically predicted ... and since, empirically shown.  It cannot be refuted, and duh ...lows/ night thermodynamics have strong proxy by DP.

It's interesting to me that the direct insert arctic air masses do not seem to demo that relationship so much.   2015... that deal last month?  to name a couple...

[CT Rain]

67F at BDR ties their all-time February record. 

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It was time, Selling the 2005 Chevy 2500HD Duramax outright as its 18yrs old but only has 121,000 miles, Bought this 2023 GMC Sierra 2500HD gas.

Love the new front ends on the gmc’s. Fisher plow coming for It?