February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I got down to 30° and it’s still only 32° here at 7:30am. 

yup, 30.9 here....still only 31.8 at the moment. Front yard is crunchy with low 50s all around me

[greenmtnwx]

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There are chances though.  Similar gradient pattern though to most of the winter.

That’ll work for ski areas but that same map at this timeframe has ended up in Mt. Tremblant all winter. Thus the skepticism when applying the seasonal bias. 

[CoastalWx]

I guess we have to reiterate again that the -PNA is not going away. It’s not. In fact it may get stronger at times as we get closer and closer.

However, we need to watch Canada and the North Atlantic. That is the key to this gradient. Will it be over Caribou or Connecticut? That’s the key. As long as we maintain a semblance of a 50-50 low and a gradually improving NAO region, the chances increase for snowier scenarios as one moves south. If this does not materialize, than it’s probably just nuisance stuff for SNE and the gradient sets up further north. 
 

It’s impossible to know right now….hell we don’t even know what will happen next week. As of now, I don’t see signs of things breaking down other than ebb and flows of guidance. What trended better last night might get a tad worse at 12z, but that’s the ebb and flow. As long as we don’t see major changes in models hold for like a 3 day period…….I’m not terribly concerned. Take it fwiw.

[tunafish]

I've seen the 50/50 mentioned a few times these last several days.   What does that do for us here?   Force the block that's east of Greenland on that map back west over the Baffin strait?

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

50/50 area trended a lot better on overnight ensembles going forward. Like to see that. 

 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

You hold on to that chance there sport. Hold on tight.

Really going out on a limb here not thinking NNE is done with winter the second week of February. Winter weather Advisory for ice and 1-3” of snow tomorrow.

This place is wild though.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Really going out on a limb here not thinking NNE is done with winter the second week of February. Winter weather Advisory for ice and 1-3” of snow tomorrow.

This place is wild though.

It’s literally watching the quality of this place disintegrate before our very eyes. 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

That’ll work for ski areas but that same map at this timeframe has ended up in Mt. Tremblant all winter. Thus the skepticism when applying the seasonal bias. 

See I disagree. The snow maps clearly showed a gradient pattern lowering south in a part of December and then again in January that resulted in a couple healthy storms for CNE/NNE.

That look on those maps was exactly what we saw before VT/NH/ME got 12-20” over a week in January.

We talked about it a lot back then, the gradient sinking south.  The Tremblant snows were when the gradient was tickling us up here.  Like 5-8” at MVL over 10 days usually ended northward.

Could it be wrong? It probably is as much as any Day 10 total prog, but the gradient there is further south in latitude.

[CoastalWx]

The fact anybody would write winter off in NNE at this stage deserves to be caned in public. 

[Hazey]

Can only get better? Hard to get worse

[Typhoon Tip]

wow... 52 at 7:30 am on Feb 16

                  ....under clear skies and no wind....

To me personally I find that an astounding circumstance.  

I wonder what the 7:30 am temperatures were when we had those unworldly warm days in 2017, 2018, and 2020.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Can only get better? Hard to get worse

That map is wrong from east of ORH to near BOS on south to Bob and then Ginx. But yeah other areas much worse. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow... 52 at 7:30 am on Feb 16

                  ....under clear skies and no wind....

To me personally I find that an astounding circumstance.  

I wonder what the 7:30 am temperatures were when we had those unworldly warm days in 2017, 2018, and 2020.  

Beautiful morning 

[greenmtnwx]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess we have to reiterate again that the -PNA is not going away. It’s not. In fact it may get stronger at times as we get closer and closer.

However, we need to watch Canada and the North Atlantic. That is the key to this gradient. Will it be over Caribou or Connecticut? That’s the key. As long as we maintain a semblance of a 50-50 low and a gradually improving NAO region, the chances increase for snowier scenarios as one moves south. If this does not materialize, than it’s probably just nuisance stuff for SNE and the gradient sets up further north. 
 

It’s impossible to know right now….he’ll we don’t even know what will happen next week. As of now, I don’t see signs of things breaking down other than ebb and flows of guidance. What trended better last night might get a tad worse at 12z, but that’s the ebb and flow. As long as we don’t see major changes in models hold for like a 3 day period…….I’m not terrible concerned. Take it fwiw.

I’d say there is probably an equal chance right now that the NAO/50-50 press enough to deliver slop pike north and a good amount of snow from the SVT ski resorts north through VT/NH/ME versus the chance the RNA overwhelms as it has done much of the winter and this ends up a Southern Canada to northern ME deal. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

26 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I got down to 30° and it’s still only 32° here at 7:30am. 

oof

21 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

yup, 30.9 here....still only 31.8 at the moment. Front yard is crunchy with low 50s all around me

oof

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess we have to reiterate again that the -PNA is not going away. It’s not. In fact it may get stronger at times as we get closer and closer.

However, we need to watch Canada and the North Atlantic. That is the key to this gradient. Will it be over Caribou or Connecticut? That’s the key. As long as we maintain a semblance of a 50-50 low and a gradually improving NAO region, the chances increase for snowier scenarios as one moves south. If this does not materialize, than it’s probably just nuisance stuff for SNE and the gradient sets up further north. 
 

It’s impossible to know right now….hell we don’t even know what will happen next week. As of now, I don’t see signs of things breaking down other than ebb and flows of guidance. What trended better last night might get a tad worse at 12z, but that’s the ebb and flow. As long as we don’t see major changes in models hold for like a 3 day period…….I’m not terribly concerned. Take it fwiw.

It's why I keep saying to come back in 6 days.  It's been spoken about ad nauseum for days now and it needs to get within striking range before some will take it more seriously.  C/NNE should be just fine in that gradient.  SNE is left to twiddling their thumbs waiting to see the white of the snow falling before believing it.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact anybody would write winter off in NNE at this stage deserves to be caned in public. 

Who cancelled it?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s literally watching the quality of this place disintegrate before our very eyes. 

Both the forum and earth you say?

[TalcottWx]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s literally watching the quality of this place disintegrate before our very eyes. 

It's society in general. There is so much on the web now, for some reason, it's making people even less intelligent and emotionally responsible.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I’d say there is probably an equal chance right now that the NAO/50-50 press enough to deliver slop pike north and a good amount of snow from the SVT ski resorts north through VT/NH/ME versus the chance the RNA overwhelms as it has done much of the winter and this ends up a Southern Canada to northern ME deal. 

Yeah for sure.  50% of either, those are great odds at this lead time… I might’ve gone lower as I don’t trust Day 10 totals.  I feel like we are saying the same things but just in different ways, ha.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

End of next week is still tbd for winter weather N of Pike.  

Last couple of GFS were more realistic with hesitating BL resistance.. but unfortunately ( or fortunately depending on the druthers) that looks an ice storm for interior SNE...with IP 2" deep down across S VT/NH ...  Snow for N country though

 

[dendrite]

NYC/NJ people declaring winter over in NNE

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I've seen the 50/50 mentioned a few times these last several days.   What does that do for us here?   Force the block that's east of Greenland on that map back west over the Baffin strait?

 

Lower heights in the 50/50 region help hold in high pressure to our north....it creates confluence aloft in SE Canada. So if you're having systems come out of the midwest/Ohio Valley, you want to see those highs holding stout which creates the setup for a good SWFE/overrunning type snow event instead of the storm cutting into Ottawa or upstate NY. If you don't hold that high pressure, then it just ends up being a very quick flip to ZR/RA after maybe a couple inches.

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The thing I think you have to be careful about with these 10-15 day outlooks is the over smoothing due to disagreement. My worry here is, right now they look good because they may be over smoothing the below normal hgts. As we get closer though, you get more agreement of a -pna and start losing the below normal hgt look in the east and replaced with a stronger se ridge in response to the -pna. I just don't see the -pna going away with how the tropical forcing is materializes. More and more agreement from what I see any convection croaks before reaching the whem and to me, that spells continuance of the torugh out west. 

I agree. However, and this is a question, wouldn't the shorter wavelengths lessen the impact of the RNA as we head to late February and March?

[dendrite]

Wavelengths are still long into March

[dendrite]

Min 30.9°

Already up to 43°

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, that’s nice. Heading up tomorrow. Lol yesterday some said that the winter sucked all the way to Fort Kent….well not really. Lol. 

that was Captain Hyperbole (DIT)

47 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

You hold on to that chance there sport. Hold on tight.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/11-new-york-city-metro/

[CoastalWx]

55 here 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

The thing I think you have to be careful about with these 10-15 day outlooks is the over smoothing due to disagreement. My worry here is, right now they look good because they may be over smoothing the below normal hgts. As we get closer though, you get more agreement of a -pna and start losing the below normal hgt look in the east and replaced with a stronger se ridge in response to the -pna. I just don't see the -pna going away with how the tropical forcing is materializes. More and more agreement from what I see any convection croaks before reaching the whem and to me, that spells continuance of the torugh out west. 

It's not going away - most likely ... 

However, the hemisphere is in a dipole state at mid latitudes that is more intense than the normal for winter. Between the positioning of the PV toward N James Bay,  late this week through early March, that 10 or so days sets up competing larger mass field indicators.

Without the PV ...I personally have no doubts we would truly be doing something in this year to astound the website down to crickets because there'd just be nothing else to say 70+ so frequently we'd put up the first 30 day stretch +30 month in history...  

Little hyperbole for fun there haha.  No, but seriously ... the PV rotating over this side of the hemisphere late this month is not likely to allow mid latitude N/A to warm to the extent that it could, given the antecedent and ongoing -PNA/ La Nina climo aspects... 

The PV is a cold circulation source. 

The -PNA / La Nina footprint ( well coupled as it is presently and likely to remain, despite the fact that the index is in fact weakening as we consider it-), are a warm source. 

What this does is pretty clearly what the ensemble means are illustrating, GEFS/EPS/GEPs, having cold anomalies loading across the Canadian shield, whilst E TX to VA and south see 564 to even 570 dm hydrostats occasionally rolling through the south.  

 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS day 10-15 is pretty nice. Might have to punt next week down south for us but post next week is looking nicer. 

10-15 always looks "nicer"

[tunafish]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lower heights in the 50/50 region help hold in high pressure to our north....it creates confluence aloft in SE Canada. So if you're having systems come out of the midwest/Ohio Valley, you want to see those highs holding stout which creates the setup for a good SWFE/overrunning type snow event instead of the storm cutting into Ottawa or upstate NY. If you don't hold that high pressure, then it just ends up being a very quick flip to ZR/RA after maybe a couple inches.

Very helpful, thank you.

Up to 50° off a low of 34°.  Should just about do it for the remaining 2" pack.

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

oof

oof

It's why I keep saying to come back in 6 days.  It's been spoken about ad nauseum for days now and it needs to get within striking range before some will take it more seriously.  C/NNE should be just fine in that gradient.  SNE is left to twiddling their thumbs waiting to see the white of the snow falling before believing it.

I don't really wanna get involved in any attempts to either ameliorate the inconsolable - haha.. nor, the attempts to cap the voice of the "trolls" 

Neither endeavor will ever succeed.

It's almost like there are three neurosis involved:  Inconsolability;  trolling a-holery; those that continue to try and 'fix' either, while expecting a different result. 

Anywho... having said that, ...perhaps D8-10 ordeal needs to go ahead and actually happen.  While it may not stop either of those neurotic engagements ( lol...) altogether ... it doesn't take psychiatric conference to sense it would lower the vitriol. 

The last two runs of the GFS show more acknowledgement to having +PP built into QUE that is above 1035 mb, ...but more importantly... that is already dammed into the NE regions prior to the arrival of the WAA thrust through the Lakes.  That gives it a nod to me.  Remove the +PP up there, and the circumstance of it being dammed in here... then I have less issue with a warm solution(s) overall.

But, the 500 mb flow and construct over all prevents a true Lakes to Canada escape of that mess... It also is why-for the confluence that produces the +PP... and so forth. That is because the PV is settling into N Canada - ultimately.  It seems this battle axis is higher confidence.  The question is precisely where that axis forces the east turn.  

2 short days ago ...that was S.  Even some consistency was going on. But since, it's back N... same consistency.  2 days on ...2 days off...  still D8 as of this morning?