February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Perhaps maybe just a little more emphasis that in this season, no matter how solid of a look numerical prediction shows, the biases of the SE ridge and eastern warmth are likely to overcome it. 

Scott has touched on that very often , Will has mentioned it many times . Scott has been detailed regarding the  up and In look Of the season ,  and did you see his post today with the map and how he would add a bit more -pna and boost the se ridge a tad to what the models show and as has been mentioned we need the Atlantic improvement to persist or this won’t be much to look forward to . 

Basically,  as we move into early March we need a better look And or more luck then in mid January to early February for the CP , and the period ahead just has chances that were absent the last couple weeks , and I think powder freaks post nailed the emotional aspect as well 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I must have said taking into account the -PNA a million times. I even drew an illustration. Christ. 

Don’t give anyone even an ounce of hope.  By discussing any potential winter weather, even weeks out, you give hope, even if to you it’s just a meteorological discussion. Don’t do it. Squash all hope.

Its all on the reader and how they interpret the information.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there’s a misconception that I am rooting against snow . Quite the opposite. I just don’t think a deep - PNA , stout SE ridge , and no blocking is conducive for snow south of NH/ VT. That’s why I made the weed /beer bet with you . If I do lose, I’ll have to send you a check as I won’t go to dispensary if that works 

Everyone knows you aren’t rooting against snow. You are probably like a top 10 snow weenie on the entire site…you live for snow.
 

We just know you deal with crappy patterns a lot by going reverse-psych. It’s not a bad hedge…you win a bet if you’re right, or you get to have some snow events to track if you’re wrong. 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What seems to happen is the Mets fully understand the probability and the odds but will talk about it because it’s something to talk about… while the bulk of the forum usually get excited when the Mets are chatting. 

There’s definitely a lot of emotional turmoil… like if Will/ORH is talking about a threat people read way to much into that.  They think Will likes this one, it’s coming.  And now folks are just sick of Mets talking about it, because there’s still a good bit of weight of emotional investment when the Mets chirp.

Its this weird dynamic going on.

Edit: Will just nailed it. “It’s on the reader…” for not understanding exactly what the Mets are discussing.

It is on the reader. Then ask the fooking questions. I’ll give wolfie credit because he does ask. I love when people ask questions. It helps clarify a lot of misconceptions.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Don’t give anyone even an ounce of hope.  By discussing any potential winter weather, even weeks out, you give hope, even if to you it’s just a meteorological discussion. Don’t do it. Squash all hope.

Its all on the reader and how they interpret the information.

The irony is that I was sort of going with the persistent look which many on here rub one out to. But even that backfired lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It is on the reader. Then ask the fooking questions. I’ll give wolfie credit because he does ask. I love when people ask questions. It helps clarify a lot of misconceptions.

I dont mind if people want to post that a good pattern on guidance will fail. 
 

But all I ask is use some meteorology/science to back up your reasoning and then an actual scientific debate can occur if we disagree. There’s an explicit reason we always explain in an event why our forecast might be different than model guidance shows (latent heat pumping up heights in gulf systems, mid-level magic/fronto not showing up well on QPF fields, models under-estimating low level CAD, etc)….the onus is on the person to explain why they differ from model guidance. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Everyone knows you aren’t rooting against snow. You are probably like a top 10 snow weenie on the entire site…you live for snow.
 

We just know you deal with crappy patterns a lot by going reverse-psych. It’s not a bad hedge…you win a bet if you’re right, or you get to have some snow events to track if you’re wrong. 

Well you’re 100 percent correct but I do hope I lose. It’s pretty sad for me personally when I travel all over the 6 state region and get excited looking at snowbanks, snow and tree damage from storms 3 weeks ago. Winters like this take me right back from about 1979-1991.. and unfortunately thus far.. this one is worse than any of those 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is on the reader. Then ask the fooking questions. I’ll give wolfie credit because he does ask. I love when people ask questions. It helps clarify a lot of misconceptions.

How many beers tonight? 

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Good time for a GTG 

Always a good time for one of those. Let's do it 12 miles NW of Hartford. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Always a good time for one of those. Let's do it 12 miles NW of Hartford. 

I’d drive wherever . We just need Will or Scott there 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is on the reader. Then ask the fooking questions. I’ll give wolfie credit because he does ask. I love when people ask questions. It helps clarify a lot of misconceptions.

Sometimes it reads like Mets like you, Will, Brooklyn are just having a discussion… just chatting weather.  But sometimes people read way too deeply into it.  Snow and winter has always carried a lot of weight around here.  If talking about a possible Day 8 hot pattern in July, no one cares if it comes or not, ha.

[kdxken]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there’s a misconception that I am rooting against snow . Quite the opposite. I just don’t think a deep - PNA , stout SE ridge , and no blocking is conducive for snow south of NH/ VT. That’s why I made the weed /beer bet with you . If I do lose, I’ll have to send you a check as I won’t go to dispensary if that works 

Don't worry about the dispensary. Pretty much the same procedures as that strip joint near your house.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Always a good time for one of those. Let's do it 12 miles NW of Hartford. 

Will your wife let us have one at your place?  Brokeback Valley?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Don't worry about the dispensary. Pretty much the same procedures as that strip joint near your house.

I’ll have to defer to @moneypitmikeon that one . I’ve come out of Dunkin several times over the years and saw him coming out smiling and laughing 

[weathafella]

49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to agree but I will still take my gummies. 100mg watermelon 

Can you imagine the look on Kevin’s face when the dispensary asks for his drivers license? 

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The irony is that I was sort of going with the persistent look which many on here rub one out to. But even that backfired lol. 

These people are absolutely out of their mind.  Mods need to start banning these loons. Everything has been said and prefaced dozens of times, caveats and nuances, and the tenor etc etc…and yet the same ones constantly just saying complete rubbish, and provide zero scientific reason. Absolutely Sickening. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Some futility stats from around the area as of Feb 15th, 2023. 

Station ID snowfall to date | Record lowest for the season & year | What is needed to tie the record | Rank (if we to end with no additional snowfall)

If there's any that are wrong lmk, there's some missing data for a few years here and there, especially for BDL. 

 

BDR 0.8 | 8.2 (1973) | 7.4 | #1

NYC 0.4 | 2.8 (1973) | 2.4 | #1

EWR 0.4 | 1.9 (1973) | 1.5 | #1

PVD 4.9 | 9.7 (1980) | 4.8 | #1

BOS 7.9 | 9.0 (1937) | 1.1 | #1

BDL 9.4 | 14.7 (1937) | 5.3 | #1

ORH 17.5 | 21.2 (1955) | 3.7 | #1

ALY 23.9 | 16.9 (2016) | N/A | #4

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

These people are absolutely out of their mind.  Mods need to start banning these loons. Everything has been said and prefaced dozens of times, caveats and nuances, and the tenor etc etc…and yet the same ones constantly just saying complete rubbish, and provide zero scientific reason. Absolutely Sickening. 

Fidel , you gotta ride or you blood pressure is gonna become unhealthy 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Some futility stats from around the area as of Feb 15th, 2023. 

Station ID snowfall to date | Record lowest for the season & year | What is needed to tie the record | Rank (if we to end with no additional snowfall)

If there's any that wrong lmk, there's some missing data for a few years here and there, especially for BDL. 

 

BDR 0.8 | 8.2 (1973) | 7.4 | #1

NYC 0.4 | 2.8 (1973) | 2.4 | #1

EWR 0.4 | 1.9 (1973) | 1.5 | #1

PVD 4.9 | 9.7 (1980) | 4.8 | #1

BOS 7.9 | 9.0 (1937) | N/A | #3

BDL 9.4 | 14.7 (1937) | 5.3 | #1

ORH 17.5 | 21.2 (1955) | 3.7 | #1

ALY 23.9 | 16.9 (2016) | N/A | #4

Was ‘73 super AN temps?

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Was ‘73 super AN temps?

Checking out briefly BDR and BDL for DJF, no. Actually they were all BN from -1 to -4 for all the months except BDL had Jan AN around +2. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Fidel , you gotta ride or you blood pressure is gonna become unhealthy 

Lol…heading up Friday. I’m good. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Checking out briefly BDR and BDL for DJF, no. Actually they were all BN from -1 to -4 for all the months except BDL had Jan AN around +2. 

That’s weird and would drive modern day weenies even more insane than this season. Cold and bone dry…

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Some futility stats from around the area as of Feb 15th, 2023. 

Station ID snowfall to date | Record lowest for the season & year | What is needed to tie the record | Rank (if we to end with no additional snowfall)

If there's any that are wrong lmk, there's some missing data for a few years here and there, especially for BDL. 

 

BDR 0.8 | 8.2 (1973) | 7.4 | #1

NYC 0.4 | 2.8 (1973) | 2.4 | #1

EWR 0.4 | 1.9 (1973) | 1.5 | #1

PVD 4.9 | 9.7 (1980) | 4.8 | #1

BOS 7.9 | 9.0 (1937) | N/A | #3

BDL 9.4 | 14.7 (1937) | 5.3 | #1

ORH 17.5 | 21.2 (1955) | 3.7 | #1

ALY 23.9 | 16.9 (2016) | N/A | #4

How can Boston be 1.1” below the all time low, and be #3?

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

All fair points.

EXACTLY

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter. 

I think your mistake there is “always”. Nothing with the weather is “always”, it’s chaos and more chaos, and sometimes the chaos provides more persistent results. Other changes are underway so the SE ridge persistence may break at some point soon.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

Perhaps maybe just a little more emphasis that in this season, no matter how solid of a look numerical prediction shows, the biases of the SE ridge and eastern warmth are likely to overcome it. 

You know these posts you are making, they are all your projections.  So what you are telling the Mets to do, you should do that.  It's simple.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Some futility stats from around the area as of Feb 15th, 2023. 

Station ID snowfall to date | Record lowest for the season & year | What is needed to tie the record | Rank (if we to end with no additional snowfall)

If there's any that are wrong lmk, there's some missing data for a few years here and there, especially for BDL. 

 

BDR 0.8 | 8.2 (1973) | 7.4 | #1

NYC 0.4 | 2.8 (1973) | 2.4 | #1

EWR 0.4 | 1.9 (1973) | 1.5 | #1

PVD 4.9 | 9.7 (1980) | 4.8 | #1

BOS 7.9 | 9.0 (1937) | N/A | #3

BDL 9.4 | 14.7 (1937) | 5.3 | #1

ORH 17.5 | 21.2 (1955) | 3.7 | #1

ALY 23.9 | 16.9 (2016) | N/A | #4

I don’t think any of the missing years would have been lower for BDL or ORH. There were some ratters (esp ‘99-00) in there, but nothing threatening futility. 99-00 does have the latest measurable for several stations though. 
 

I think BOS is wrong in your rank and number needed for beating futility. They need 1.2 and you have it as “N/A”

[Damage In Tolland]

I noticed today that areas up north that had snow OTG during the cold outbreak and have since melted out had green grass. Once you hit Greenfield/ Deerfield with no snow on south everything really browned out from the cold burn 

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

These people are absolutely out of their mind.  Mods need to start banning these loons. Everything has been said and prefaced dozens of times, caveats and nuances, and the tenor etc etc…and yet the same ones constantly just saying complete rubbish, and provide zero scientific reason. Absolutely Sickening. 

but think of all the fun we would miss, and all the speculation about various psychological diagnoses....

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How can Boston be 1.1” below the all time low, and be #3?

I think it means there was another bad year in between those two numbers at number 2.