powderfreak Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 HRRR keeps getting colder. Has zero plain rain up this way now. Needs this to sag slightly further and in business. SN/IP/ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Latest forecast from GYX has 30/17 with snow showers for next Wednesday. Sure, it's D7, but that's the nearest thing to weenie friendly I've seen from there since last month. (Though some of us were excited by the Arctic blast earlier this month.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I don't get the seizures that some folks are having....00z GEFS mean gave just N of me in se NH 10" rest of Feb....06z 11" and 12z 9". Man, its going to be a looooooong week if folks can't stomach that level of variance at extended lead times. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: HRRR keeps getting colder. Has zero plain rain up this way now. Needs this to sag slightly further and in business. SN/IP/ZR. Gives me some glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila. Sounds more like wishcasting to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gives me some glaze. Can see the cold tuck, gets pretty icy coastal plain in that tuck zone, especially GYX area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't get the seizures that some folks are having....00z GEFS mean gave me 10" rest of Feb....06z 11" and 12z 9". Man, its going to be a looooooong week if folks can't stomach that level of variance at extended lead times. 12z: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How many did you pop today? We're going to end up killing one another off before the storm hits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Sounds more like wishcasting to me. What?? A dash more -PNA than what models are showing. That's realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 EPS has me within 20" of climo seasonal snowfall on March 1, as talk of futility quickly grows.....well, futile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What?? A dash more -PNA than what models are showing. That's realistic. Autopilot defensive resistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Autopilot defensive resistance People have gone mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What?? A dash more -PNA than what models are showing. That's realistic. That wasn't the only thing I put in bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 GEM ENS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That wasn't the only thing I put in bold. The point is that drawing attention to aspects of the pattern that could be construed as unfavorable for snowfall implies objectivity, which is the antithesis of "wish casting". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEM ENS: Most of us have no problem with you highlighting these la la land snow maps, but being the realists we are, we know how just about all of those have turned out for most this winter. So excuse us if we don't get too excited about 324 hr snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Current guidance has me with another 10-20" for the balance of Feb, which is gravy pre blocking....I'll take 30-40" seasonal total with an ominous March hanging in the balance and run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Most of us have no problem with you highlighting these la la land snow maps, but being the realists we are, we know how just about all of those have turned out for most this winter. So excuse us if we don't get too excited about 324 hr snow maps. The point is that some are freaking out about the threats going to crap, so I'm not sure what else to reference when responding to these assertions about the guidance other than...well.....the guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: That wasn't the only thing I put in bold. I'm dumbfounded but ok: 1) Analyze the guidance/potential ----> This is what meteorologists and hobbyists do. 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. ---> This is to take into account the bias of models seeming to underplay the -PNA 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region ---> We have a better Canada/NATL region than what we have seen all winter. Fact not opinion. 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. ---> This is acknowledging that because of many moving parts, one should not fall in love with a particular solution this far out. 5) Avoid emotions. ---> You need to add more of this 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila. ---> Objectivity as in understanding all the variables and having a rationale discussion void of weenieism and vapid pessimism based on emotions. So how is that wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The point is that drawing attention to aspects of the pattern that could be construed as unfavorable for snowfall implies objectivity, which is the antithesis of "wish casting". He pointed out that it would be wise to assume more RNA than modeled....which is not conducive for snowfall. What are you confused about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Even when there’s nothing going on this place is never dull lol 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12z: I would argue the GEFS snow maps are the least valuable given the fact that the 15 members can have 25% full weenie skew the mean quite a bit. Much less of an issue on eps with 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm dumbfounded but ok: 1) Analyze the guidance/potential ----> This is what meteorologists and hobbyists do. 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. ---> This is to take into account the bias of models seeming to underplay the -PNA 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region ---> We have a better Canada/NATL region than what we have seen all winter. Fact not opinion. 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. ---> This is acknowledging that because of many moving parts, one should not fall in love with a particular solution this far out. 5) Avoid emotions. ---> You need to add more of this 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila. ---> Objectivity as in understanding all the variables and having a rationale discussion void of weenieism and vapid pessimism based on emotions. So how is that wishcasting? This is what I responded to, not your editorializing now: "The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Current guidance has me with another 10-20" for the balance of Feb, which is gravy pre blocking....I'll take 30-40" seasonal total with an ominous March hanging in the balance and run. When you say ominous March, are you alluding to the first 2/3 of the month, or the entire thing? Obviously that's details TBD, just curious what you're interpretation is as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 From a personal perspective I really hope Boston doesn't go the entire month of February with out a plowable storm. Even in the rat years of the 80's that was very unusual. Also this forum needs to bust one soon or heads may explode... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The point is that some are freaking out about the threats going to crap, so I'm not sure what else to reference when responding to these assertions about the guidance other than...well.....the guidance. no, we're supposed to be pessimistic all the time because the guidance is always wrong, no matter what 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: This is what I responded to, not your editorializing now: "The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila." How was any of that wishcasting? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, tunafish said: When you say ominous March, are you alluding to the first 2/3 of the month, or the entire thing? Obviously that's details TBD, just curious what you're interpretation is as of now. At least half... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: I would argue the GEFS snow maps are the least valuable given the fact that the 15 members can have 25% full weenie skew the mean quite a bit. Much less of an issue on eps with 51 Fine, but I posted all three ensembles and the GEFS were the most pessimistic in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 I was up in Franklin and Tilton and then Keene today in NH. Coming home in far southern NH in Winchester there was an amazing amount of tree damage along route 10 heading south. White pines, maples.. looked like most species. That area must have gotten crushed with damage and power outages 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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