February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think we can confuse noise for a signal with MJO phase 8 right here.  MJO is loud noise. We need to see through it. That's all I'm saying. I don't think we can right now. We will know a lot more in a week.

 

I'm not sure the MJO has much to do with it....if anything, aside from being in a phase conducive to propagation of the strat warming (not phase 8). Not sure it even gets to phase 8 TBH. I don't expect much of any PNA ridging. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You don't even know what meteorology is, so you could not criticize with merit. 

And you can't forecast.

Frankly, I don't know what it is you do here other than try and stir the pot, with ZERO credibility or accomplishments behind you. 

 

Seriously?  You’ve been on the wrong side of every snowstorm the last 3 years. It’s Only since this persistence has set in, that you look somewhat like you know what you’re doing,…so keep riding it for all it’s worth. Everybody sees through that. Lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You don't even know what meteorology is, so you could not criticize with merit. 

And you can't forecast.

Frankly, I don't know what it is you do here other than try and stir the pot, with ZERO credibility or accomplishments behind you. 

 

He's a hobbyist and winter sports enthusiast, like alot of us. He's never claimed any met creds.

[Cold Miser]

12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You don't even know what meteorology is, so you could not criticize with merit. 

And you can't forecast.

Frankly, I don't know what it is you do here other than try and stir the pot, with ZERO credibility or accomplishments behind you. 

 

Awsesome...Lets make this a stale place where mets just talk science all day, and refrain from lively conversation.  

...Might as well cancel all of the non-mets from the forum. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Hell of a cold front Friday.  From near 60 to wind chills in the teens in 6-8 hours .. yikes. 

[NorEastermass128]

It’s begun. A family member just texted me asking how many feet of snow we are getting next week. 

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He's a hobbyist and winter sports enthusiast, like alot of us. He's never claimed any met creds.

Cool. Wonder why he's not in the OT or banter thread? Also let the guy speak for himself. He need a hand with that too? Guy has a wolf for his profile pic. Real badazz.

That's good; bc he doesn't have any. The reason I point this out is because he doesn't demonstrate any forecasting ability here. Literally just criticizes. IDGAF about a degree if you can demonstrate your skills. 

 

[CoastalWx]

All of our "cold" periods have been in phases not typical of our classic MJO thoughts. The cold has been 3-4-5 towards maritime continent. Indeed we have another wave doing that. Also note the 850mb easterlies are dying. No longer a standing Nina wave as you can see. So perhaps as this goes to 180 on east..we can actually sustain some cold. 

 

 

 

[Cold Miser]

anger

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Pope at it again. 

[Winter Wizard]

The 2/23 threat definitely has legs in New England, IMO. Key difference from December is now we'll have the 50/50 this time in addition to the -EPO and an east-based NAO block. You can certainly thread the needle with that depiction but the timing is delicate: if it comes in too soon, then this will be sheared and suppressed, but too late and this is another cutter. 

[WeatherWilly]

I'll take an Oreo flavor in large. Thank you.

 

 

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

I'll take an Oreo flavor in large. Thank you.

 

 

lol. Where is that forecast for...at 10 days out?

[Typhoon Tip]

Folks should to consider the PNA as having E/W biases - particularly as it then forces the PNAP response. 

The 1980s had a lot of seasons between '85 and '90 where the PNA --> PNAP had the ridge slightly too far E in the means.  Hence the Cape decade... with lots of dry cold waves. 

This year...it's been west when it's materialized ... I'd even argue that if it goes west far enough it starts eventually reflecting/leaning the index more negative ... but that's an artifact of a fixed domain space, then moving objects around within it.  A "true" -PNA really should not have a positive height anomaly rattling around the east Pacific while merely overlapping the west coast - I almost think that circumstance, one we've seen a lot of this year ( and likely doomed the Xmas event to the Buffalo transit ) should be codified as a separate index significance somehow, but that's venturing -

Sometimes a neutral PNA is really like a positive PNA that is just biased W...

 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pope at it again. 

Here is evil pope.  Can always tell when he posts.  I start to hear this chant music play, with lights flashing, glass shattering, and me being violently thrown against the wall and ceiling. 

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

this is a good look for an overrunning threat next week, though. broad LP over the midsection of the country with strong HP nosing into SE Canada to establish a good antecedent airmass. the 50/50 signal is also quite strong, which would help lock in any HP that's north of us

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like a few need lessons in civility.

[WeatherWilly]

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Where is that forecast for...at 10 days out?

https://www.weatherwx.com/

Southern Rhode Island

There are a few more snow chances before that as well

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Cool. Wonder why he's not in the OT or banter thread? Also let the guy speak for himself. He need a hand with that too? Guy has a wolf for his profile pic. Real badazz.

That's good; bc he doesn't have any. The reason I point this out is because he doesn't demonstrate any forecasting ability here. Literally just criticizes. IDGAF about a degree if you can demonstrate your skills. 

 

Please move THIS to banter and keep the thread clean for the pro’s discussing the snowy pattern ahead. Thank you for your cooperation. 

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, WeatherWilly said:

https://www.weatherwx.com/

Southern Rhode Island

There are a few more snow chances before that as well

I guess we can always start low, and increase the snow chances from there.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is evil pope.  Can always tell when he posts.  I start to hear this chant music play, with lights flashing, glass shattering, and me being violently thrown against the wall and ceiling. 

 

At the 2:00 min mark I was half-expecting Arnold to throw out the line from Predator - "You are one ugly m'ther fcker"

[CoastalWx]

Pope to Wolfie....you're a choir boy compared to me!

 

 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Cool. Wonder why he's not in the OT or banter thread? Also let the guy speak for himself. He need a hand with that too? Guy has a wolf for his profile pic. Real badazz.

That's good; bc he doesn't have any. The reason I point this out is because he doesn't demonstrate any forecasting ability here. Literally just criticizes. IDGAF about a degree if you can demonstrate your skills. 

 

I’ve never claimed to be a MET.  I said you were going persistence(which is what you’ve done all season), and I said let’s see if it works.  And you attacked.  
 

So I came back at you. Believe me, I don’t hide behind a keyboard, or better yet hide behind a silly avatar.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Cool. Wonder why he's not in the OT or banter thread? Also let the guy speak for himself. He need a hand with that too? Guy has a wolf for his profile pic. Real badazz.

That's good; bc he doesn't have any. The reason I point this out is because he doesn't demonstrate any forecasting ability here. Literally just criticizes. IDGAF about a degree if you can demonstrate your skills. 

 

Bc you don't need a degree to post on the weather side. And I'm not preventing him from speaking for himself...merely adding my opinion.

[George001]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks like a few need lessons in civility.

The Pope is quite angry today, haven’t seen this much rage from him since the late December threat (back when it looked snowy). That is something to keep an eye on the next few days. I am still trying to figure out how the Popes anger correlates with our snow chances, but considering that he’s been fairly tame while we roasted the past month and a half I’m thinking it’s a good sign. My theory is as our snow chances increase, the Popes hostility also increases.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer 

[Cold Miser]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve never claimed to be a MET.  I said you were going persistence(which is what you’ve done all season), and I said let’s see if it works.  And you attacked.  
 

So I came back at you. Believe me, I don’t hide behind a keyboard, or better yet hide behind a silly avatar.  

...But you would be cooler if your avatar had red, met creds under it, and I would be jealous, envious and sad.

[BrianW]

This thread...

 

[CoastalWx]

@wx2fishpointed this out, but epic warm fail possible near MA/NH border Friday.