40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:21 PM, brooklynwx99 said: it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW Expand @ORH_wxmanand @Typhoon Tiphave been all over that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Well 1956 is prolific, so something perhaps more tame. Anyways, I think once again...the Pacific will help determine our fate. I feel like the NAO will flip negative, but if it's more of a lousy PAC (+EPO) then December comes back to haunt us I think. Expand My point is, we would replicate 1956 synoptically speaking and probably end up with less snowfall...so yea, from strictly a snowfall standpoint, its probably wise to take the under on March 1956...that said, soon or later we are going to stop paying for 2025 and that luck with change. More likely next December, but possibly next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:21 PM, brooklynwx99 said: it seems like the clipper midweek next week may provide the first wave break that leads to blocking later on in the run. this is something that we want to monitor... if this continues to trend stronger or even remain the same, it will make it much easier for a -NAO to form the 12z GFS looks to be doing the same FWIW Expand That gets us some blocking showing up by the 23rd. Will it allow the southern sw to be a coastal and not cut due to the SE Ridge influence? Looks like a primary up the Apps to a redeveloper near the mid atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Well 1956 is prolific, so something perhaps more tame. Anyways, I think once again...the Pacific will help determine our fate. I feel like the NAO will flip negative, but if it's more of a lousy PAC (+EPO) then December comes back to haunt us I think. Expand If we don’t get a -NAO, a good analog for -EPO/-PNA/SE ridge but a cold gradient pattern is March 1967. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 GFS op is a good example of why you'll need a sizeable block. We squash a small system to our south later next week, but a beast of a low out west wants to run right into this thing shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My point is, we would replicate 1956 synoptically speaking and probably end up with less snowfall...so yea, from strictly a snowfall standpoint, its probably wise to take the under on March 1956...that said, soon or later we are going to stop paying for 2025 and that luck with change. More likely next December, but possibly next month. Expand I've seen March 2018 as an analog too. I get it from a synoptic standpoint. Just wondering if there are similar ones with less prolific outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:29 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS op is a good example of why you'll need a sizeable block. We squash a small system to our south later next week, but a beast of a low out west wants to run right into this thing shortly after. Expand Look at those scooter highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 LOL, trough extending into the EPAC. Where have we seen this before. Better hope that blocking holds. These ridge fold overs have been a trademark this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:33 PM, ORH_wxman said: Look at those scooter highs. Expand Yep, love to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 You mean 100+" at BHO in a couple of weeks isn't likely? That must have been something to witness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:30 PM, CoastalWx said: I've seen March 2018 as an analog too. I get it from a synoptic standpoint. Just wondering if there are similar ones with less prolific outcomes. Expand I don't like this SSW as much as that one...JMO. I also think that the RNA will be more prevalent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:33 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: You mean 100+" at BHO in a couple of weeks isn't likely? That must have been something to witness Expand Take the under a bit on BHO. I think they were "excited." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Canadian would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't like this SSW as much as that one...JMO. I also think that the RNA will be more prevalent.The twitterologists are ignoring the RNA and the fact that this SSWE is not going to be anything close to March, 2018 IMO. And they are back with their “MJO 8-1-2” hype. A bunch of people are going to end up with egg on their faces yet again. You can thank the usual cast of weenie mets for this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Gfs illustrates how many things have to go right, not much stopping this from running over Detroit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 10:13 AM, powderfreak said: Everyone is going to need you to get on that plane. Sorry Jer. Expand Lol…she’s now getting adamant that we should leave a week later if at all shortening the trip. Looks like we may be here at least an extra week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs illustrates how many things have to go right, not much stopping this from running over Detroit Expand Nevertheless it still would give many more snow on the front end than has occurred cumulatively all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs illustrates how many things have to go right, not much stopping this from running over Detroit Expand I don't think it's threading the needle. In fact, it squashes one event next week. There would be wiggle room. I almost want to see that one event squashed in lieu of something much bigger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:47 PM, weathafella said: Lol…she’s now getting adamant that we should leave a week later if at all shortening the trip. Looks like we may be here at least an extra week. Expand At least we know who to blame if this trends to shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs illustrates how many things have to go right, not much stopping this from running over Detroit Expand You have it backwards lol but keep playing your tune. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:56 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You have it backwards lol but keep playing your tune. Expand yeah the thing with this potential pattern is that even though the SLP does run into the GL, you have a ton of HP in SE Canada due to the -NAO. the blocking helps keep the cold air locked in enough to lead to a nice front-end thump enough blocking and the SLP slips underneath entirely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 If it can’t snow.. can we at least get an icestorm out of this thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: At least we know who to blame if this trends to shit. Expand This potential seems to have a lil more going for it than most anything this winter so far for SNE. I think we all know the caveats/nuances, and being that we’ve had zero go right for us, this can easily fail too. But for some reason this seems to have a lil more room to go a lil more right, than the other shit we’ve had to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: At least we know who to blame if this trends to shit. Expand It’s not me, it’s the new snowblower. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 4:59 PM, brooklynwx99 said: yeah the thing with this potential pattern is that even though the SLP does run into the GL, you have a ton of HP in SE Canada due to the -NAO. the blocking helps keep the cold air locked in enough to lead to a nice front-end thump enough blocking and the SLP slips underneath entirely Expand That’s some serious high pressure in a nice spot..1044mb, we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Charts!! This was sent to me from a met friend. I like this view. Two things I noted. Go back to a week ago. 1) PNA trending more negative. (Shocker). 2) The NAO area with more ridging. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North Hemisphere&base_time=202302130000¶meter=geopotential 500 hPa 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 5:10 PM, CoastalWx said: Charts!! This was sent to me from a met friend. I like this view. Two things I noted. Go back to a week ago. 1) PNA trending more negative. (Shocker). 2) The NAO area with more ridging. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North Hemisphere&base_time=202302130000¶meter=geopotential 500 hPaThat RNA has been amazingly persistent and strong since November. It won’t die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 I have always liked the look of an active -PNA with a nice strong block . Seems like they squash often enough to be in a sweet spot for New England snow totals to increase nicely (sometimes not s coast) and not suppressed like a PNA/ -Nao can do frequently at my latitude I just need to see this F**%N block hold and ideally rebuild / last for more than a few days ...otherwise I’d prefer the mild weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 3:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Expand thanks for making me spit out my half-chewed salad all over my keyboard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 On 2/14/2023 at 5:06 PM, WinterWolf said: This potential seems to have a lil more going for it than most anything this winter so far for SNE. I think we all know the caveats/nuances, and being that we’ve had zero go right for us, this can easily fail too. But for some reason this seems to have a lil more room to go a lil more right, than the other shit we’ve had to date. Expand There seems to be cross-guidance agreement on strong confluence and a good antecedent airmass. Those are two things we haven’t had much of this season. So I would agree there is reason to be more optimistic than previously. Still, lead time isn’t inside of 6-7 days yet so we need to cross that threshold. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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